SC Freiburg v Bayern München prediction

Bundesliga · · Europa-Park Stadion

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: SC Freiburg · Bayern München · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Away win the free pick for SC Freiburg v Bayern München, Bundesliga on Sun, 25 Oct 2026 16:30 GMT.

Free pick
Away win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Away win in the last 90 days, 85.3% of 102 landed (95% range 77.1–90.9%); it had given them 76% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

SC Freiburg host Bayern München in the Bundesliga on Sunday 25 October (kick-off 16:30 UK); the model’s free pick is Bayern München to win.

The key numbers

Bayern München have scored 22 goals, the most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Bayern München are unbeaten in at least their last 15 matches in all competitions. SC Freiburg have scored in 10 consecutive matches in all competitions. Bayern München have scored in seven consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

13 of SC Freiburg’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (87%). Both teams scored in 12 of SC Freiburg’s last 15 results in all competitions (80%). At home, SC Freiburg have seven wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 9 home matches in all competitions — 2.44 points per game, scoring 2.89 and conceding 1.22. SC Freiburg have scored 15 goals, the fifth-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). SC Freiburg have conceded six goals, the third-fewest of the 18 clubs.

12 of Bayern München’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (80%). Both teams scored in 10 of Bayern München’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Bayern München have four wins, three draws and no defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 2.14 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.14. Bayern München have conceded five goals, the second-fewest of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far).

SC Freiburg (third) and Bayern München (first) are one point apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Bayern München the stronger side, 316 rating points above SC Freiburg (Bayern München 2012, SC Freiburg 1696, after at least 312 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Bayern München are unbeaten in the last six meetings with SC Freiburg, every meeting checked. The most recent meeting, on 4 April 2026, finished SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayern München.

Team news

Predicted SC Freiburg XI (4-2-3-1): M. Backhaus, M. Ginter, J. Makengo, P. Lienhart, P. Treu, M. Eggestein, Y. Engelhardt, D. Scherhant, J. Beste, Y. Suzuki, I. Matanović — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Igor Matanović (6.5 per match over 10 appearances, six goals and three assists) and Matthias Ginter (5.3 per match over 10 appearances, two goals and three assists) have been SC Freiburg’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for SC Freiburg (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Igor Matanović averages 3.3 shots per 90 over 989 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances. Matthias Ginter averages 1.5 tackles per 90 over 888 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Bayern München XI (4-2-3-1): M. Neuer, D. Upamecano, A. Davies, K. Min-Jae, J. Stanišić, M. Olise, J. Kimmich, A. Pavlović, L. Díaz, I. Saibari, H. Kane — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Michael Olise (10.0 per match over 10 appearances, nine goals and four assists) and Harry Kane (7.9 per match over 11 appearances, 10 goals and seven assists) have been Bayern München’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bayern München (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Michael Olise averages 3.4 key passes per 90 over 1820 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Harry Kane averages 3.4 shots per 90 over 1951 minutes, with a shot in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Bundesliga · Europa-Park Stadion
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): SC Freiburg 0 · draws 1 · Bayern München 5 · 4.17 goals/game
  • Recent form: SC Freiburg 3W 1D 1L · Bayern München 2W 3D 0L

SC Freiburg v Bayern München (Bundesliga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 22 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.75 / 3.38
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 4
over 8 matches
5.38 / 9.13
Corners
against 2.88 / 3.5 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
6.5 / 9.75
Shots on target
against 2.25 / 2.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.63 / 1.13
Cards
against 2.13 / 2 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 21 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 21 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameSC Freiburg for / againstLineBayern München for / against
Goals scored
2.75 for · 1.13 against n 8
4our book
3.38 for · 1.13 against n 8
Corners won
5.38 for · 2.88 against n 8
9.5standard
9.13 for · 3.5 against n 8
Shots
18.63 for · 8.5 against n 8
19.5standard
23.5 for · 7.63 against n 8
Shots on target
6.5 for · 2.25 against n 8
8.5standard
9.75 for · 2.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.25 for · 13.75 against n 8
21.5standard
10.13 for · 8.13 against n 8
Cards shown
1.63 for · 2.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1.13 for · 2 against n 8
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
K. Goto n 823.6
3.86/1
12/0
—
Cyriaque Kalou Irié n 834.1
2.35/1
12/1
—
D. Scherhant n 879.3
2.18/5
15/2
—
I. Matanović n 865
1.76/3
1.98/3
—
Y. Engelhardt n 874.8
1.56/3
1.26/1
—
SC Freiburg — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Cyriaque Kalou Irié n 834.1
45/3
12/1
I. Matanović n 865
2.98/5
1.45/3
V. Grifo n 831.6
2.84/3
1.83/1
D. Scherhant n 879.3
2.47/3
0.94/2
L. Höler n 832.6
2.45/2
12/1
SC Freiburg — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
V. Grifo n 831.6
0.41/0
0.41/0
M. Eggestein n 890
0.54/0
0.11/0
D. Scherhant n 879.3
0.32/0
0.32/0
Y. Suzuki n 877.3
0.62/1
00/0
L. Kübler n 840.6
0.31/0
0.31/0
SC Freiburg — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
M. Rosenfelder n 860.9
3.76/5
Berkay Yilmaz n 859.8
36/4
P. Treu n 875.1
2.27/5
I. Ogbus n 844.5
25/1
M. Ginter n 888.5
1.46/2
SC Freiburg — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Backhaus n 890
1.13/2
Bayern München
Bayern München — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
H. Ito n 861.5
2.25/3
0.21/0
—
K. Laimer n 866.5
25/4
0.72/1
—
L. Díaz n 866.6
1.76/4
0.52/1
—
T. Bischof n 859.4
1.76/2
0.84/0
—
D. Upamecano n 878.1
1.67/4
0.11/0
—
Bayern München — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Olise n 869.3
4.18/7
3.28/5
H. Kane n 879.4
48/8
2.38/5
S. Gnabry n 833.3
3.45/4
25/1
I. Saibari n 850.8
3.36/5
1.33/2
L. Karl n 838.1
2.45/2
1.23/1
Bayern München — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
H. Kane n 879.4
1.47/3
0.94/2
M. Olise n 869.3
1.35/2
0.64/0
L. Díaz n 866.6
0.72/1
0.21/0
J. Musiala n 860.5
0.63/0
0.21/0
T. Bischof n 859.4
0.21/0
0.41/1
Bayern München — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. Boey n 849.8
2.95/4
T. Bischof n 859.4
2.87/6
D. Upamecano n 878.1
2.37/5
K. Laimer n 866.5
27/3
N. Brown n 851.6
24/2
Bayern München — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Neuer n 892.6
1.96/3
J. Urbig n 882.5
1.84/2

The day’s free picks, by email

Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind SC Freiburg v Bayern München — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
SC FreiburgWDWWL
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2.6 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Bayern MünchenWDDWD
Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · 4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
SC Freiburg 0 · 1 draw · Bayern München 5 · 4.17 goals/game
  • 2026-04-04 SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayern München
  • 2025-11-22 Bayern München 6–2 SC Freiburg
  • 2025-01-25 SC Freiburg 1–2 Bayern München
  • 2024-09-01 Bayern München 2–0 SC Freiburg
  • 2024-03-01 SC Freiburg 2–2 Bayern Munich
  • 2023-10-08 Bayern Munich 3–0 SC Freiburg
League standing · 2026/27
SC Freiburg#3 pos13 pts6 pl+9 GD
Bayern München#1 pos14 pts6 pl+17 GD
Goals per game
SC Freiburg scored2.5
Bayern München scored3.67
SC Freiburg conceded1
Bayern München conceded0.83

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win SC Freiburg v Bayern München?
TACTIX’s free model pick for SC Freiburg v Bayern München is Away win.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
In their last 6 meetings, SC Freiburg won 0, Bayern München won 5 and there was 1 draw, averaging 4.17 goals per game.
What is the recent form of SC Freiburg and Bayern München?
Recent form — SC Freiburg 3W 1D 1L; Bayern München 2W 3D 0L.

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