SC Paderborn 07 v VfL Wolfsburg result

Full-time · SC Paderborn 07 2–1 VfL Wolfsburg

Bundesliga · Mon, 25 May 2026 19:30 BST · Home Deluxe Arena

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: SC Paderborn 07 · VfL Wolfsburg

The model’s pre-match pick

SC Paderborn 07 2–1 VfL Wolfsburg — SC Paderborn 07 won this Bundesliga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.7% of 495 landed (95% range 64.5–72.6%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 596 of 928 times (64.2%), against an average rating of 67.4%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

The result

SC Paderborn 07 beat VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 at Home Deluxe Arena in the Bundesliga on Monday 25 May.

SC Paderborn 07 have conceded one goal, the fewest of the 19 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 2 games, ranked per game).

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — VfL Wolfsburg: Dženan Pejčinović (3’, assisted by Adam Daghim); SC Paderborn 07: Filip Bilbija (38’, assisted by Calvin Brackelmann) and Laurin Curda (100’, assisted by Sven Michel). J. Mæhle (14’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Laurin Curda’s goal on 100 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: SC Paderborn 07 0.00, VfL Wolfsburg 0.00, from 39 shots to 8 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Felix Zwayer, Germany showed nine yellow cards and one red — against 3.4 yellows a game across the last 14 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — SC Paderborn 07: Filip Bilbija (11’), Laurin Curda (27’) and Sven Michel (119’); VfL Wolfsburg: P. Pervan (-5’), J. Mæhle (11’), J. Mæhle (14’), Vinicius Souza (24’), M. Svanberg (64’) and Konstantinos Koulierakis (120+2’).

What it changes

SC Paderborn 07 have scored two goals, the second-fewest of the 19 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 2 games, ranked per game).

VfL Wolfsburg have scored 46 goals, the seventh-fewest of the 19 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 36 games, ranked per game). VfL Wolfsburg have conceded 71 goals, the second-most of the 19 clubs.

SC Paderborn 07 are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Laurin Curda (SC Paderborn 07) 9.8, Calvin Brackelmann (SC Paderborn 07) 7.2 and Adam Daghim (VfL Wolfsburg) 6.0 led the match.

Head-to-head

VfL Wolfsburg are unbeaten in the last three meetings with SC Paderborn 07, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.7% of the time in the last 90 days (340 of 495).

Next up

SC Paderborn 07 next travel to Bayer Leverkusen on 21 November 2026.

VfL Wolfsburg next host Holstein Kiel on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for SC Paderborn 07: Bayer Leverkusen v SC Paderborn 07, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for VfL Wolfsburg: VfL Wolfsburg v Holstein Kiel, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: SC Paderborn 07 2–1 VfL Wolfsburg · Bundesliga
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena · Paderborn
Referee: Felix Zwayer, Germany
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 3): SC Paderborn 07 0 · draws 2 · VfL Wolfsburg 1 · 2.67 goals/game
Recent form: SC Paderborn 07 1W 2D 2L · VfL Wolfsburg 1W 3D 1L

SC Paderborn 07 2–1 VfL Wolfsburg (Bundesliga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 1.25

Goals

against 1.75 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

3.88 / 5.88

Corners

against 3.63 / 6 · 0 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.63 / 5.63

Shots on target

against 5.63 / 4.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.38 / 1.63

Cards

against 2.13 / 1.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

3.36 yellows

Referee · Felix Zwayer, Germany

21 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 14 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 21 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 21 May 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	SC Paderborn 07 for / against	Line	VfL Wolfsburg for / against
Goals scored	1.75 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	1.25 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.88 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.88 for · 6 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	11.75 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	14.5 for · 13.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.63 for · 5.63 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5.63 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.25 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.75 for · 8.25 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.38 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.63 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Felix Zwayer, Germany — 3.36 yellow cards a game, 0.14 red cards, 21 fouls over 14 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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SC Paderborn 07

SC Paderborn 07 Goalkeeper

SC Paderborn 07 — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
D. Seimen	35	903150 min	1103.1 /90	451.3 /90	00 /90

SC Paderborn 07 — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 21 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
D. Seimen n 8	90	3.8 6/5

SC Paderborn 07 Defensive

SC Paderborn 07 — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
T. Scheller	32	862767 min	371.2 /90	331.1 /90	110.4 /90	1354.4 /90	180.6 /90	50.2 /90
M. Hansen	27	671810 min	472.3 /90	301.5 /90	50.2 /90	914.5 /90	231.1 /90	80.4 /90
C. Brackelmann	26	842188 min	692.8 /90	200.8 /90	130.5 /90	1566.4 /90	210.9 /90	20.1 /90
L. Curda	34	872963 min	812.5 /90	411.2 /90	120.4 /90	2447.4 /90	662 /90	70.2 /90
S. Castañeda	30	752247 min	481.9 /90	281.1 /90	100.4 /90	1315.2 /90	311.2 /90	60.2 /90
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SC Paderborn 07 — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 21 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Seimen n 8	90	0 0/0	0.6 5/0	—
L. Curda n 8	90	2.1 8/6	1 6/1	C. Eriksen
M. Baur n 8	86	0.8 5/1	0.7 4/1	C. Eriksen
T. Scheller n 8	87.9	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0	K. Koulierakis
S. Castañeda n 8	72.6	0.8 3/2	1.2 5/2	S. Kumbedi
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SC Paderborn 07 — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 21 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
L. Curda n 8	90	3.9 8/8
M. Baur n 8	86	1.2 5/2
T. Scheller n 8	87.9	1.7 6/3
S. Castañeda n 8	72.6	2.5 7/4
R. Obermair n 8	82.1	1 5/2
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SC Paderborn 07 Attacking

SC Paderborn 07 — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
S. Tigges	29	551584 min	60.3 /90	20.1 /90	372.1 /90	130.7 /90	171 /90	120.7 /90
S. Klaas	25	581458 min	50.3 /90	30.2 /90	191.2 /90	120.7 /90	241.5 /90	100.6 /90
S. Marino	21	601266 min	50.4 /90	10.1 /90	352.5 /90	171.2 /90	80.6 /90	151.1 /90
Ruben Müller	19	571088 min	00 /90	20.2 /90	80.7 /90	20.2 /90	191.6 /90	80.7 /90
L. Curda	34	872963 min	70.2 /90	70.2 /90	481.5 /90	220.7 /90	511.5 /90	321 /90
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SC Paderborn 07 — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 21 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
D. Seimen n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Curda n 8	90	0.9 4/2	0.3 2/0
M. Baur n 8	86	0.7 3/2	0 0/0
T. Scheller n 8	87.9	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
S. Castañeda n 8	72.6	0.6 3/1	0.2 1/0
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SC Paderborn 07 — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for SC Paderborn 07 before kick-off, to 21 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
D. Seimen n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Curda n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
M. Baur n 8	86	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
T. Scheller n 8	87.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Castañeda n 8	72.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
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VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Wolfsburg Goalkeeper

VfL Wolfsburg — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
K. Grabara	35	903150 min	1243.5 /90	692 /90	30.1 /90

VfL Wolfsburg — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfL Wolfsburg before kick-off, to 21 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
K. Grabara n 8	90	3.4 6/3

VfL Wolfsburg Defensive

VfL Wolfsburg — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
K. Koulierakis	30	882654 min	461.6 /90	401.4 /90	140.5 /90	1314.4 /90	301 /90	50.2 /90
S. Kumbedi	26	761980 min	482.2 /90	190.9 /90	60.3 /90	1004.5 /90	251.1 /90	20.1 /90
M. Jenz	20	891787 min	321.6 /90	120.6 /90	191 /90	1015.1 /90	311.6 /90	80.4 /90
A. Zehnter	18	851524 min	150.9 /90	191.1 /90	70.4 /90	311.8 /90	30.2 /90	10.1 /90
J. Belocian	15	901345 min	302 /90	181.2 /90	140.9 /90	634.2 /90	191.3 /90	30.2 /90
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VfL Wolfsburg — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfL Wolfsburg before kick-off, to 21 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
K. Grabara n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
C. Eriksen n 8	83.1	0.3 1/1	0.4 3/0	M. Baur
K. Koulierakis n 8	89.9	1.4 8/3	0.9 5/2	T. Scheller
M. Amoura n 8	66.1	1 5/1	0.2 1/0	—
S. Kumbedi n 8	79.5	0.6 4/0	0.8 5/1	S. Castañeda
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VfL Wolfsburg — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfL Wolfsburg before kick-off, to 21 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Eriksen n 8	83.1	1.6 7/4
K. Koulierakis n 8	89.9	2 7/6
M. Amoura n 8	66.1	2 6/4
S. Kumbedi n 8	79.5	2.1 7/5
A. Daghim n 8	51.1	0.9 4/0
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VfL Wolfsburg Attacking

VfL Wolfsburg — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
M. Amoura	29	702026 min	80.4 /90	30.1 /90	512.3 /90	190.8 /90	281.2 /90	180.8 /90
A. Daghim	26	561458 min	20.1 /90	20.1 /90	221.4 /90	110.7 /90	191.2 /90	201.2 /90
D. Pejčinović	24	641539 min	80.5 /90	00 /90	442.6 /90	231.3 /90	140.8 /90	60.4 /90
J. Wind	9	52469 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	81.5 /90	61.2 /90	51 /90	20.4 /90
K. Shiogai	8	37293 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	72.2 /90	51.5 /90	20.6 /90	20.6 /90
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VfL Wolfsburg — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfL Wolfsburg before kick-off, to 21 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
K. Grabara n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Eriksen n 8	83.1	1.5 7/2	0.9 5/2
K. Koulierakis n 8	89.9	0.5 4/0	0.4 3/0
M. Amoura n 8	66.1	1.5 4/3	0.7 3/1
S. Kumbedi n 8	79.5	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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VfL Wolfsburg — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for VfL Wolfsburg before kick-off, to 21 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
K. Grabara n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Eriksen n 8	83.1	0.1 1/0	0.4 3/0
K. Koulierakis n 8	89.9	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
M. Amoura n 8	66.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Kumbedi n 8	79.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
SC Paderborn 07		VfL Wolfsburg
67%	Possession	33%
39	Shots	8
10	Shots on target	3
22	Shots off target	4
7	Blocked shots	1
27	Shots inside the box	5
19	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
12	Fouls	9
3	Yellow cards	6
0	Red cards	1
2	Saves	6
659	Passes	335
85%	Pass accuracy	74%

SC Paderborn 07 Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
D. Seimen	120	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.2
M. Hansen	120	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	8.2
T. Scheller	120	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	7
L. Curda	120	1	0	3	2	4	5	Y	8.9
S. Castañeda	120	0	0	4	1	2	0	0	7.2
F. Bilbija	120	1	0	5	1	2	0	Y	7.3
M. Baur	99	0	0	3	1	5	2	0	7.2
C. Brackelmann	74	0	1	3	2	2	2	0	8.3
Ruben Müller	74	0	0	1	0	3	1	0	6.3
S. Klaas	70	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	6.3
S. Marino	70	0	0	3	1	2	0	0	6.2
S. Tigges sub	50	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	6.2
S. Michel sub	50	0	1	2	0	3	0	Y	6.2
F. Götze sub	46	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	7.2
N. Mohr sub	46	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7.7
N. Bätzner sub	21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3

VfL Wolfsburg Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
K. Grabara	120	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.7
J. Belocian	120	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7.2
K. Koulierakis	120	0	0	1	0	0	1	Y	7.5
Vinicius Souza	120	0	0	0	0	0	5	Y	7.3
C. Eriksen	120	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	7.3
D. Vavro	105	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.9
S. Kumbedi	105	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
A. Daghim	98	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	6.9
D. Pejčinović	98	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.9
M. Svanberg	81	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.9
J. Mæhle	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	RY	3
K. Paredes sub	39	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.9
J. Lindstrøm sub	22	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	6.3
J. Wind sub	22	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.5
K. Shiogai sub	15	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	6.2
M. Amoura sub	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind SC Paderborn 07 v VfL Wolfsburg — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

SC Paderborn 07LLDWD

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.4 scored / 2 conceded per game

VfL WolfsburgDDLWD

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 0.8 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 3

SC Paderborn 07 0 · 2 draws · VfL Wolfsburg 1 · 2.67 goals/game

2026-05-21 VfL Wolfsburg 0–0 SC Paderborn 07
2020-02-02 SC Paderborn 07 2–4 VfL Wolfsburg
2019-08-31 VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 SC Paderborn 07

League standing · 2025/26

SC Paderborn 07Not in this league table

VfL Wolfsburg#16 pos29 pts34 pl-24 GD

Goals per game

SC Paderborn 07 scored1.4

VfL Wolfsburg scored1.32

SC Paderborn 07 conceded2

VfL Wolfsburg conceded2.03

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for SC Paderborn 07 v VfL Wolfsburg?: TACTIX’s free model pick for SC Paderborn 07 v VfL Wolfsburg was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and VfL Wolfsburg?: In their last 3 meetings, SC Paderborn 07 won 0, VfL Wolfsburg won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of SC Paderborn 07 and VfL Wolfsburg?: Recent form — SC Paderborn 07 1W 2D 2L; VfL Wolfsburg 1W 3D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.