Union Berlin v FC St. Pauli result

Full-time · Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli

Bundesliga · Sun, 05 Apr 2026 14:30 BST · Stadion An der Alten Försterei

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Union Berlin · FC St. Pauli · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli — this Bundesliga match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 56.1% of 139 landed (95% range 47.8–64.1%); it had given them 77.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Union Berlin: 1.81 to 0.33 in expected goals, from 16 shots to 9, ahead on xG from the third minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The points were shared.

The result

Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli drew 1–1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei in the Bundesliga on Sunday 5 April.

The goals

FC St. Pauli led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — FC St. Pauli: Mathias Pereira Lage (25’); Union Berlin: A. Ilić (52’, assisted by Derrick Köhn). J. Irvine (90+3’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with A. Ilić’s goal on 52 minutes.

Discipline

Tobias Welz, Germany showed two yellow cards and one red — against 5.2 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — FC St. Pauli: J. Irvine (85’) and J. Irvine (90+3’).

What it changes

Union Berlin stay 10th after this result (28 league matches played). Union Berlin have scored 37 goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 32 games). Union Berlin have conceded 57 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

FC St. Pauli stay 16th after this result (28 league matches played). FC St. Pauli have scored 27 goals, the fewest of the 18 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 32 games). FC St. Pauli have conceded 55 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

FC St. Pauli are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Mathias Pereira Lage (FC St. Pauli) 9.7, A. Ilić (Union Berlin) 7.6 and Derrick Köhn (Union Berlin) 5.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 56.1% of the time in the last 90 days (78 of 139).

Next up

Union Berlin next host RB Leipzig on 21 November 2026.

FC St. Pauli next host VfL Bochum on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Union Berlin: Union Berlin v RB Leipzig, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for FC St. Pauli: FC St. Pauli v VfL Bochum, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga
Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei · Berlin
Referee: Tobias Welz, Germany
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Union Berlin 4 · draws 0 · FC St. Pauli 2 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Union Berlin 2W 0D 3L · FC St. Pauli 2W 1D 2L

Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli (Bundesliga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.88 / 0.75

Goals

against 2 / 1.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

3.5 / 3.5

Corners

against 5.38 / 5.13 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3 / 3

Shots on target

against 4.63 / 5.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.75 / 1.5

Cards

against 2.38 / 1.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

5.18 yellows

Referee · Tobias Welz, Germany

21.45 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 11 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 22 March 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 22 March 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Union Berlin for / against	Line	FC St. Pauli for / against
Goals scored	0.88 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.75 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.5 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.5 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	9.5 for · 15.88 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	10.25 for · 11.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.38 for · 8.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	9.5 for · 8.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.75 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.5 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Tobias Welz, Germany — 5.18 yellow cards a game, 0.09 red cards, 21.45 fouls over 11 matches.

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Union Berlin

Union Berlin Goalkeeper

Union Berlin — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
F. Rønnow	28	892480 min	772.8 /90	491.8 /90	00 /90
M. Raab	2	66131 min	106.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Union Berlin — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
F. Rønnow n 8	90	2.5 5/3

Union Berlin Defensive

Union Berlin — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Doekhi	29	902610 min	401.4 /90	371.3 /90	210.7 /90	1826.3 /90	250.9 /90	40.1 /90
L. Querfeld	28	902520 min	481.7 /90	331.2 /90	240.9 /90	1926.9 /90	421.5 /90	60.2 /90
Diogo Leite	17	851451 min	231.4 /90	301.9 /90	70.4 /90	845.2 /90	221.4 /90	20.1 /90
T. Rothe	14	54756 min	192.3 /90	202.4 /90	30.4 /90	516.1 /90	121.4 /90	00 /90
S. Nsoki	11	68746 min	111.3 /90	192.3 /90	20.2 /90	404.8 /90	81 /90	20.2 /90
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Union Berlin — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Doekhi n 8	90	0.9 5/1	0.5 3/1	—
L. Querfeld n 8	90	2.3 7/5	1 5/2	—
R. Khedira n 8	88.1	1.8 7/4	1 6/2	Mathias Pereira Lage
F. Rønnow n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0	—
A. Ilić n 8	75	1.3 4/3	1.1 5/2	J. Fujita
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Union Berlin — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
D. Doekhi n 8	90	0.4 3/0
L. Querfeld n 8	90	2.4 6/6
R. Khedira n 8	88.1	0.8 6/0
A. Ilić n 8	75	0.2 1/0
Ilyas Ansah n 8	56.6	1.2 6/0
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Union Berlin Attacking

Union Berlin — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Ilić	26	701809 min	20.1 /90	80.4 /90	432.1 /90	150.7 /90	281.4 /90	60.3 /90
Ilyas Ansah	26	671751 min	50.3 /90	10.1 /90	221.1 /90	100.5 /90	150.8 /90	271.4 /90
Jeong Woo-Yeong	22	511114 min	30.2 /90	10.1 /90	151.2 /90	70.6 /90	50.4 /90	60.5 /90
O. Burke	18	621124 min	40.3 /90	10.1 /90	201.6 /90	100.8 /90	141.1 /90	70.6 /90
Livan Burcu	11	40440 min	00 /90	00 /90	81.6 /90	10.2 /90	71.4 /90	112.3 /90
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Union Berlin — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
D. Doekhi n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0.1 1/0
L. Querfeld n 8	90	0.9 4/3	0.4 2/1
R. Khedira n 8	88.1	0.6 4/1	0.5 3/1
F. Rønnow n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Ilić n 8	75	2.1 6/4	1.1 4/2
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Union Berlin — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Union Berlin before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
D. Doekhi n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Querfeld n 8	90	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
R. Khedira n 8	88.1	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
F. Rønnow n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Ilić n 8	75	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
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FC St. Pauli

FC St. Pauli Goalkeeper

FC St. Pauli — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
N. Vasilj	28	902520 min	1023.6 /90	451.6 /90	20.1 /90

FC St. Pauli — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC St. Pauli before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
N. Vasilj n 8	90	3.9 8/5

FC St. Pauli Defensive

FC St. Pauli — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
E. Smith	25	882205 min	301.2 /90	241 /90	170.7 /90	994 /90	140.6 /90	40.2 /90
H. Wahl	24	882115 min	381.6 /90	241 /90	110.5 /90	974.1 /90	90.4 /90	10 /90
Karol Mets	20	831664 min	221.2 /90	181 /90	80.4 /90	673.6 /90	110.6 /90	20.1 /90
A. Dźwigała	16	681083 min	423.5 /90	171.4 /90	30.2 /90	715.9 /90	151.2 /90	50.4 /90
L. Ritzka	12	56667 min	263.5 /90	101.3 /90	20.3 /90	344.6 /90	81.1 /90	10.1 /90
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FC St. Pauli — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC St. Pauli before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
N. Vasilj n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
J. Fujita n 8	75.8	1.2 5/2	0.7 5/0	A. Ilić
Mathias Pereira Lage n 8	61.3	1.5 5/3	1.3 5/1	R. Khedira
E. Smith n 8	90	0.9 4/3	0.9 7/0	—
A. Pyrka n 8	89.6	0.5 4/0	1.5 6/4	—
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FC St. Pauli — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC St. Pauli before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Fujita n 8	75.8	1.6 7/3
Mathias Pereira Lage n 8	61.3	1.1 5/1
E. Smith n 8	90	1.4 6/3
A. Pyrka n 8	89.6	0.9 4/3
J. Sands n 8	84.6	1.3 7/3
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FC St. Pauli Attacking

FC St. Pauli — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Mathias Pereira Lage	26	731885 min	10 /90	20.1 /90	281.3 /90	140.7 /90	261.2 /90	100.5 /90
D. Sinani	23	761745 min	50.3 /90	30.2 /90	301.5 /90	180.9 /90	361.9 /90	130.7 /90
M. Kaars	22	541194 min	40.3 /90	10.1 /90	191.4 /90	120.9 /90	90.7 /90	40.3 /90
A. Hountondji	14	47654 min	40.6 /90	00 /90	101.4 /90	71 /90	40.6 /90	81.1 /90
R. Jones	8	45358 min	20.5 /90	00 /90	82 /90	61.5 /90	61.5 /90	51.3 /90
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FC St. Pauli — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC St. Pauli before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
N. Vasilj n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Fujita n 8	75.8	1 7/0	0.6 4/0
Mathias Pereira Lage n 8	61.3	1.3 4/2	0.4 2/0
E. Smith n 8	90	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0
A. Pyrka n 8	89.6	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
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FC St. Pauli — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC St. Pauli before kick-off, to 22 March 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
N. Vasilj n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Fujita n 8	75.8	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Mathias Pereira Lage n 8	61.3	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
E. Smith n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Pyrka n 8	89.6	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Union Berlin		FC St. Pauli
55%	Possession	45%
2.00	Expected goals (xG)	0.33
16	Shots	9
8	Shots on target	2
4	Shots off target	3
4	Blocked shots	4
13	Shots inside the box	3
7	Corners	2
3	Offsides	0
10	Fouls	8
0	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	1
1	Saves	8
445	Passes	381
73%	Pass accuracy	69%

Union Berlin Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
F. Rønnow	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
D. Doekhi	90	0	0	2	1	0	1	6.9
L. Querfeld	90	0	0	1	0	1	2	6.7
Diogo Leite	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	7
J. Haberer	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	6.9
A. Schäfer	90	0	0	1	1	0	1	7.2
R. Khedira	90	0	0	1	0	1	1	6.7
A. Ilić	90	1	0	2	2	1	0	8.2
D. Köhn	80	0	1	2	1	3	1	7.7
O. Burke	80	0	0	2	2	0	1	7.5
Jeong Woo-Yeong	73	0	0	0	0	0	2	6.5
Alex Král sub	17	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Ilyas Ansah sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
T. Rothe sub	10	0	0	1	1	1	0	6.6

FC St. Pauli Player Stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
N. Vasilj	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	9.3
A. Dźwigała	90	0	1	1	0	2	0	6.2
H. Wahl	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Karol Mets	90	0	1	0	1	1	0	6.5
A. Pyrka	90	0	1	0	2	1	0	6.9
J. Irvine	90	0	0	0	0	5	RY	7
Mathias Pereira Lage	90	1	1	1	0	2	0	8
D. Sinani	90	0	1	0	2	1	0	6.9
M. Rasmussen	89	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
J. Fujita	73	0	0	0	0	5	0	6.9
M. Kaars	60	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.3
A. Hountondji sub	30	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
C. Metcalfe sub	17	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Abdoulie Ceesay sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Union Berlin v FC St. Pauli — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Union BerlinWLLWL

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

FC St. PauliWWDLL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 0.8 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Union Berlin 4 · 0 draws · FC St. Pauli 2 · 3 goals/game

2025-11-23 FC St. Pauli 0–1 Union Berlin
2025-01-26 FC St. Pauli 3–0 Union Berlin
2024-08-30 Union Berlin 1–0 FC St. Pauli
2022-03-01 Union Berlin 2–1 FC St. Pauli
2019-02-04 FC St. Pauli 3–2 Union Berlin
2018-08-26 Union Berlin 4–1 FC St. Pauli

League standing · 2025/26

Union Berlin#11 pos39 pts34 pl-14 GD

FC St. Pauli#18 pos26 pts34 pl-31 GD

Goals per game

Union Berlin scored1.29

FC St. Pauli scored0.85

Union Berlin conceded1.71

FC St. Pauli conceded1.76

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Union Berlin 1.81 xG from 16 shots, FC St. Pauli 0.33 from 9. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Union Berlin (attacking right)FC St. Pauli (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
Union Berlin	16	1	1.81
FC St. Pauli	9	1	0.33

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Union Berlin led on xG, 0.75 to 0.15. At full time, Union Berlin led on xG, 1.81 to 0.33. The widest gap was 1.54 xG to Union Berlin, in the 87th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)

Union Berlin 1.81 xGFC St. Pauli 0.33 xGdots = goals · 25 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Union Berlin v FC St. Pauli?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Union Berlin v FC St. Pauli was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli?: In their last 6 meetings, Union Berlin won 4, FC St. Pauli won 2 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Union Berlin and FC St. Pauli?: Recent form — Union Berlin 2W 0D 3L; FC St. Pauli 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.