VfB Stuttgart v FSV Mainz 05 prediction

Bundesliga · · MHPArena

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: VfB Stuttgart · FSV Mainz 05 · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for VfB Stuttgart v FSV Mainz 05, Bundesliga on Sat, 16 Jan 2027 14:30 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

VfB Stuttgart host FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga on Saturday 16 January (kick-off 14:30 UK).

The key numbers

FSV Mainz 05 have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

11 of VfB Stuttgart’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in nine of VfB Stuttgart’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, VfB Stuttgart have four wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 2.17 points per game, scoring 2.17 and conceding 1.00. VfB Stuttgart have scored eight goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). VfB Stuttgart have conceded 10 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Nine of FSV Mainz 05’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in seven of FSV Mainz 05’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have six wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 2.38 points per game, scoring 3.00 and conceding 1.13. FSV Mainz 05 have scored 14 goals, the sixth-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). FSV Mainz 05 have conceded 10 goals, the seventh-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

VfB Stuttgart (13th) and FSV Mainz 05 (fifth) are four points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have VfB Stuttgart the stronger side, 18 rating points above FSV Mainz 05 (VfB Stuttgart 1637, FSV Mainz 05 1619, after at least 282 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

VfB Stuttgart are unbeaten in the last three meetings with FSV Mainz 05. The most recent meeting, on 7 March 2026, finished FSV Mainz 05 2–2 VfB Stuttgart.

Team news

Predicted VfB Stuttgart XI (3-4-2-1): F. Bredlow, J. Chabot, F. Jeltsch, R. Hendriks, A. Stiller, J. Vagnoman, G. Prömel, C. Führich, A. Karazor, D. Undav, E. Demirović — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Maximilian Mittelstädt (5.7 per match over seven appearances, one goal and one assist) and Julian Chabot (4.5 per match over nine appearances, one goal) have been VfB Stuttgart’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for VfB Stuttgart (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Maximilian Mittelstädt averages 2.3 tackles per 90 over 704 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last eight appearances. Julian Chabot averages 1.9 tackles per 90 over 776 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last nine appearances.

Predicted FSV Mainz 05 XI (3-5-2): A. Schwolow, F. Gruber, S. Posch, K. Potulski, N. Amiri, K. Sano, P. Mwene, A. Caci, L. Jae-Sung, P. Tietz, S. Becker — derived from the last 6 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Phillip Tietz (7.0 per match over seven appearances, nine goals) and Nadiem Amiri (5.3 per match over seven appearances, two goals and three assists) have been FSV Mainz 05’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for FSV Mainz 05 (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Phillip Tietz averages 3.7 shots per 90 over 614 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last seven appearances. Nadiem Amiri averages 3.3 key passes per 90 over 761 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · Bundesliga · MHPArena
  • Head-to-head (last 6): VfB Stuttgart 3 · draws 2 · FSV Mainz 05 1 · 3.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: VfB Stuttgart 2W 0D 3L · FSV Mainz 05 3W 0D 2L

VfB Stuttgart v FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 3.13
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
6.5 / 5.13
Corners
against 5.25 / 4.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.75 / 7.13
Shots on target
against 4.63 / 3.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.13 / 2
Cards
against 2.25 / 1.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameVfB Stuttgart for / againstLineFSV Mainz 05 for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.5standard
3.13 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
6.5 for · 5.25 against n 8
9.5standard
5.13 for · 4.13 against n 8
Shots
17 for · 16.75 against n 8
19.5standard
18.88 for · 12.5 against n 8
Shots on target
5.75 for · 4.63 against n 8
8.5standard
7.13 for · 3.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.88 for · 11.38 against n 8
21.5standard
13.13 for · 10.13 against n 8
Cards shown
1.13 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 1.63 against n 8
VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Y. Spalt n 321.3
4.21/1
4.21/1
—
José María Andrés Baixauli n 860.5
2.47/5
0.73/1
—
D. Undav n 873.5
26/4
0.32/0
—
A. Karazor n 869.5
1.66/3
1.14/2
—
J. Chabot n 885.8
1.45/4
15/3
—
VfB Stuttgart — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Tiago Tomás n 836.4
3.15/4
1.54/1
D. Undav n 873.5
2.86/3
1.15/1
D. Pejčinović n 849.3
2.55/2
0.52/0
L. Sauer n 826.5
2.55/1
1.33/0
E. Demirović n 864
2.16/2
1.14/1
VfB Stuttgart — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Tiago Tomás n 836.4
0.93/0
0.31/0
L. Sauer n 826.5
0.41/0
0.41/0
A. Stiller n 881.5
00/0
0.63/1
N. Nartey n 833.9
0.31/0
0.31/0
D. Undav n 873.5
0.21/0
0.31/1
VfB Stuttgart — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Y. Spalt n 321.3
4.22/1
L. Stergiou n 827.6
3.34/2
A. Karazor n 869.5
2.86/5
B. El Khannouss n 854.4
2.77/4
Tiago Tomás n 836.4
2.54/3
VfB Stuttgart — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
D. Seimen n 893.8
3.47/4
F. Bredlow n 890
3.26/4
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05 — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
P. Tietz n 887.3
2.36/5
1.25/2
—
K. Potulski n 869.8
2.35/4
0.64/0
—
L. Maloney n 87.1
1.61/0
00/0
—
F. Gruber n 885
1.55/3
0.11/0
—
E. Martel n 868
1.55/3
0.84/1
—
FSV Mainz 05 — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
P. Tietz n 887.3
3.58/8
1.98/5
R. Königsdörffer n 831.9
3.25/3
1.13/0
S. Becker n 872.3
2.66/5
25/5
B. Hollerbach n 848.4
2.66/2
1.23/2
W. Bøving n 822.8
2.54/1
0.51/0
FSV Mainz 05 — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
P. Tietz n 887.3
1.36/2
0.11/0
S. Becker n 872.3
0.53/0
0.52/1
A. Caci n 867.1
0.31/1
0.53/0
N. Amiri n 887.5
0.31/1
0.42/1
B. Hollerbach n 848.4
0.52/0
0.21/0
FSV Mainz 05 — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
O. Ruoppi n 852.6
2.64/4
W. Bøving n 822.8
2.54/1
P. Mwene n 888
2.48/5
A. Caci n 867.1
2.25/3
S. Posch n 889.8
2.17/4
FSV Mainz 05 — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Schwolow n 890
2.96/4
R. Zentner n 881.8
2.96/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind VfB Stuttgart v FSV Mainz 05 — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
VfB StuttgartLLWWL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
FSV Mainz 05WLWLW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2.8 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
VfB Stuttgart 3 · 2 draws · FSV Mainz 05 1 · 3.5 goals/game
  • 2026-03-07 FSV Mainz 05 2–2 VfB Stuttgart
  • 2025-10-29 FSV Mainz 05 0–2 VfB Stuttgart
  • 2025-10-26 VfB Stuttgart 2–1 FSV Mainz 05
  • 2025-01-25 FSV Mainz 05 2–0 VfB Stuttgart
  • 2024-08-31 VfB Stuttgart 3–3 FSV Mainz 05
  • 2024-02-11 VfB Stuttgart 3–1 FSV Mainz 05
League standing · 2026/27
VfB Stuttgart#13 pos6 pts6 pl-2 GD
FSV Mainz 05#5 pos10 pts6 pl+4 GD
Goals per game
VfB Stuttgart scored1.33
FSV Mainz 05 scored2.33
VfB Stuttgart conceded1.67
FSV Mainz 05 conceded1.67

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Frequently asked questions

What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05?
In their last 6 meetings, VfB Stuttgart won 3, FSV Mainz 05 won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of VfB Stuttgart and FSV Mainz 05?
Recent form — VfB Stuttgart 2W 0D 3L; FSV Mainz 05 3W 0D 2L.

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