VfL Wolfsburg v FSV Mainz 05 result

Full-time · VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 FSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga · Sun, 31 Aug 2025 14:30 BST · Volkswagen Arena

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: VfL Wolfsburg · FSV Mainz 05 · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 — this Bundesliga match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.7% of 641 landed (95% range 61.9–69.3%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 411 of 625 times (65.8%), against an average rating of 68.5%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said FSV Mainz 05: 1.83 to 0.62 in expected goals, from 17 shots to 11, ahead on xG from the 78th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match). The points were shared.

The result

VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05 drew 1–1 at Volkswagen Arena in the Bundesliga on Sunday 31 August.

The goals

VfL Wolfsburg led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — VfL Wolfsburg: A. Zehnter (9’, assisted by Lovro Majer); FSV Mainz 05: Nadiem Amiri (89’ pen). M. Svanberg (90’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Nadiem Amiri’s goal on 89 minutes.

Discipline

Sören Storks, Germany showed eight yellow cards and one red — against 4.9 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition).

What it changes

VfL Wolfsburg move down from third to fourth (two league matches played).

FSV Mainz 05 move up from 14th to 13th (two league matches played).

VfL Wolfsburg are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions. VfL Wolfsburg have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Nadiem Amiri (FSV Mainz 05) 10.9, A. Zehnter (VfL Wolfsburg) 8.4 and Lovro Majer (VfL Wolfsburg) 5.6 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 65.7% of the time in the last 90 days (421 of 641).

Next up

VfL Wolfsburg next travel to VfL Bochum on 23 October 2026.

FSV Mainz 05 next host Werder Bremen on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for VfL Wolfsburg: VfL Bochum v VfL Wolfsburg, Friday 23 October — the preview. Next for FSV Mainz 05: FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga
Venue: Volkswagen Arena · Wolfsburg
Referee: Sören Storks, Germany
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): VfL Wolfsburg 3 · draws 2 · FSV Mainz 05 1 · 3.83 goals/game
Recent form: VfL Wolfsburg 3W 1D 1L · FSV Mainz 05 2W 1D 2L

VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.38 / 1.63

Goals

against 1.63 / 1.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.57 / 6.5

Corners

against 4.71 / 3.38 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 7 matches

4.14 / 5

Shots on target

against 4.43 / 4.63 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.75 / 1.38

Cards

against 1.63 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

4.91 yellows

Referee · Sören Storks, Germany

2.45 home / 2.45 away

over 11 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	VfL Wolfsburg for / against	Line	FSV Mainz 05 for / against
Goals scored	2.38 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.57 for · 4.71 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	6.5 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	14 for · 14.29 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	16 for · 10.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.14 for · 4.43 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	5 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	8.71 for · 11.14 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	11.5 for · 10.13 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.75 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.38 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Sören Storks, Germany — 4.91 yellow cards a game, 0.45 red cards, 20.36 fouls over 11 matches (2.45 to the home side, 2.45 to the away side).

Home 2.45Away 2.45

VfL Wolfsburg

VfL Wolfsburg — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Tiago Tomás n 8	39.1	2.3 5/2	2.9 5/3	—
M. Jenz n 8	90	2 8/6	0.1 1/0	—
Vinicius Souza n 8	84.4	1.9 7/5	1.2 8/1	—
A. Vranckx n 8	58.4	1.9 5/4	2.1 5/3	—
K. Fischer n 8	83.5	1.5 7/3	0.5 2/1	—

VfL Wolfsburg — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
D. Pejčinović n 6	19.5	3.1 2/1	0 0/0
M. Amoura n 8	65	2.3 7/4	0.9 5/0
P. Wimmer n 8	76.5	1.6 7/3	0.7 5/0
L. Nmecha n 8	43.4	1.6 4/2	1.3 4/1
J. Wind n 8	69	1.5 6/3	0.3 2/0

VfL Wolfsburg — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
A. Zehnter n 7	76.7	0.2 1/0	0.3 2/0
L. Nmecha n 8	43.4	0.5 2/0	0 0/0
M. Arnold n 8	82	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
M. Amoura n 8	65	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
K. Paredes n 8	61.4	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0

VfL Wolfsburg — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Vinicius Souza n 8	84.4	3.5 8/6
Tiago Tomás n 8	39.1	3.2 6/3
D. Odogu n 3	64.7	2.8 3/2
K. Fischer n 8	83.5	2.6 8/6
P. Wimmer n 8	76.5	2.4 7/4

VfL Wolfsburg — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
K. Grabara n 8	90	2.6 5/3

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
N. Veratschnig n 8	35.1	2.9 6/2	1.9 3/3	—
S. Kawasaki n 8	78.4	2.7 7/6	1 3/2	—
L. Maloney n 8	8.3	2.7 2/0	2.7 2/0	—
B. Hollerbach n 8	72.1	2.2 7/4	1.1 4/2	—
N. Weiper n 8	42.5	1.9 4/2	0 0/0	—

FSV Mainz 05 — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
N. Weiper n 8	42.5	3.4 5/2	1.6 5/1
J. Burkardt n 8	84.3	3.2 8/7	1.1 5/2
A. Sieb n 8	24.6	2.7 4/2	0.9 2/0
N. Amiri n 8	85.1	2.2 8/6	1.1 8/0
B. Hollerbach n 8	72.1	1.7 6/2	0.9 4/1

FSV Mainz 05 — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
N. Amiri n 8	85.1	0.5 4/0	0.3 2/0
N. Weiper n 8	42.5	0.3 1/0	0.5 2/0
P. Nebel n 8	84	0.3 2/0	0.3 2/0
J. Burkardt n 8	84.3	0.4 3/0	0 0/0
S. Kawasaki n 8	78.4	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0

FSV Mainz 05 — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Hong Hyun-Seok n 8	22	3.1 5/1
D. Kohr n 8	73.9	2.7 6/5
L. Maloney n 8	8.3	2.7 2/0
N. Amiri n 8	85.1	2.6 6/6
A. Nordin n 8	23.1	2.4 3/1

FSV Mainz 05 — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 28 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
R. Zentner n 8	90	3.1 6/4

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
VfL Wolfsburg		FSV Mainz 05
40%	Possession	60%
0.62	Expected goals (xG)	1.95
11	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	3
5	Shots off target	8
3	Blocked shots	6
7	Shots inside the box	14
3	Corners	10
15	Fouls	14
3	Yellow cards	5
1	Red cards	0
2	Saves	2
310	Passes	458
72%	Pass accuracy	84%

VfL Wolfsburg player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
K. Grabara	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.2
K. Fischer	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
M. Jenz	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
K. Koulierakis	90	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	7
M. Arnold	90	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	6.9
P. Wimmer	90	0	0	1	0	0	1	Y	6.5
A. Zehnter	89	1	0	2	1	1	1	0	8.2
Vinicius Souza	89	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7.2
Lovro Majer	70	0	1	1	0	4	2	0	6.9
D. Pejčinović	70	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.5
A. Skov Olsen	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
V. Černý sub	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
M. Svanberg sub	30	0	0	1	1	0	0	RY	6.2
M. Amoura sub	20	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
J. Mæhle sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	–
J. Wind sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–

FSV Mainz 05 player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
R. Zentner	90	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.2
D. da Costa	90	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.9
D. Kohr	90	0	2	1	0	1	0	7.3
A. Caci	90	0	2	0	1	2	Y	7
K. Sano	90	0	2	0	1	0	0	6.3
N. Amiri	90	1	1	1	5	2	0	7.5
Lee Jae-Sung	90	0	1	0	1	2	0	6.6
A. Nordin	81	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.6
P. Mwene	69	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.7
N. Weiper	69	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.7
S. Bell	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
A. Hanche-Olsen sub	45	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.6
N. Veratschnig sub	21	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
A. Sieb sub	21	0	2	1	1	0	Y	6.7
B. Bobzien sub	9	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind VfL Wolfsburg v FSV Mainz 05 — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

VfL WolfsburgLDWWW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 3 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

FSV Mainz 05DWLLW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

VfL Wolfsburg 3 · 2 draws · FSV Mainz 05 1 · 3.83 goals/game

2025-04-19 FSV Mainz 05 2–2 VfL Wolfsburg
2024-12-08 VfL Wolfsburg 4–3 FSV Mainz 05
2024-05-18 VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 FSV Mainz 05
2024-01-13 FSV Mainz 05 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg
2023-04-30 VfL Wolfsburg 3–0 FSV Mainz 05
2022-11-05 FSV Mainz 05 0–3 VfL Wolfsburg

League standing · 2025/26

VfL Wolfsburg#16 pos29 pts34 pl-24 GD

FSV Mainz 05#10 pos40 pts34 pl-9 GD

Goals per game

VfL Wolfsburg scored1.32

FSV Mainz 05 scored1.29

VfL Wolfsburg conceded2.03

FSV Mainz 05 conceded1.56

Shot map and expected goals

VfL Wolfsburg 0.62 xG from 11 shots, FSV Mainz 05 1.83 from 17. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

VfL Wolfsburg (attacking right)FSV Mainz 05 (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
VfL Wolfsburg	11	1	0.62
FSV Mainz 05	17	1	1.83

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for VfL Wolfsburg v FSV Mainz 05?: TACTIX’s free model pick for VfL Wolfsburg v FSV Mainz 05 was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05?: In their last 6 meetings, VfL Wolfsburg won 3, FSV Mainz 05 won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of VfL Wolfsburg and FSV Mainz 05?: Recent form — VfL Wolfsburg 3W 1D 1L; FSV Mainz 05 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s boards

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Predictions today Tomorrow BTTS board Over 2.5 board Under 2.5 board Over 1.5 board Home win board Away win board Double chance board

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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