This Matchweek

BoltonLincoln

Bolton v Lincoln result

Full-time · Bolton 0–1 Lincoln

Championship · · Toughsheet Community Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bolton · Lincoln · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Bolton 0–1 Lincoln — Lincoln won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.35 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Lincoln won 1–0 at Toughsheet Community Stadium in the Championship on Saturday 29 August. Lincoln have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Lincoln: Benjamin House (66’, assisted by Callum Elder).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Benjamin House’s goal on 66 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Bolton out-shot Lincoln 21 to 8 and created the better chances, 1.89 xG to 1.32 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

Discipline

Benjamin Speedie, England showed three yellow cards — against 3.3 yellows a game across the last 7 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Lincoln: Benjamin House (30’), Ivan Varfolomeev (79’) and Conor McGrandles (90+3’).

What it changes

Bolton move down from fifth to 11th (three league matches played).

Lincoln move up from 24th to 14th (three league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Benjamin House (Lincoln) 7.3, George Wickens (Lincoln) 5.8 and Dominic Jefferies (Lincoln) 5.6 led the match.

Head-to-head

Lincoln are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Bolton.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Bolton or Lincoln (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

Bolton next host Portsmouth on 21 November 2026.

Lincoln next host Wrexham on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Bolton: Bolton v Portsmouth, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Lincoln: Lincoln v Wrexham, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Bolton 0–1 Lincoln · Championship
  • Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium · Bolton
  • Referee: Benjamin Speedie, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Bolton 3 · draws 2 · Lincoln 1 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Bolton 3W 1D 1L · Lincoln 3W 0D 2L

Bolton 0–1 Lincoln (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 12 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 2.25
Goals
against 0.88 / 1.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.38 / 5.5
Corners
against 5 / 3.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.25 / 4.75
Shots on target
against 3.63 / 4.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 1.88
Cards
against 1.75 / 1.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBolton for / againstLineLincoln for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 0.88 against n 8
2.5our book
2.25 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
4.38 for · 5 against n 8
9.5standard
5.5 for · 3.38 against n 8
Shots
13.63 for · 10.38 against n 8
19.5standard
13.13 for · 12.75 against n 8
Shots on target
4.25 for · 3.63 against n 8
8.5standard
4.75 for · 4.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
11 for · 12.38 against n 8
21.5standard
13 for · 11.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5standard
1.88 for · 1.5 against n 8

Referee: Benjamin Speedie, England.

Bolton

Bolton Goalkeeper

Bolton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Bonham392277 min144.5 /9020.6 /9000 /90
Bolton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Bonham n 890.9
2.66/2

Bolton Defensive

Bolton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
C. Forino-Joseph385256 min82.8 /9072.5 /9041.4 /90196.7 /9010.4 /9010.4 /90
A. Famewo377232 min41.6 /9041.6 /9000 /90135 /9020.8 /9010.4 /90
M. Conway369207 min20.9 /9010.4 /9020.9 /9073 /9020.9 /9000 /90
Luca Stephenson291182 min21 /9021 /9010.5 /9063 /9010.5 /9010.5 /90
B. Davies261121 min10.7 /9000 /9010.7 /9053.7 /9000 /9000 /90
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Bolton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Sheehan n 890.5
1.46/4
1.47/3
Ivan Varfolomeev
S. Dalby n 869.3
1.36/2
1.55/3
—
J. Bonham n 890.9
00/0
00/0
—
C. Forino-Joseph n 888.3
0.32/0
1.47/3
—
A. Famewo n 377.3
0.82/0
1.21/1
—
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Bolton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Sheehan n 890.5
1.76/4
S. Dalby n 869.3
0.85/0
C. Forino-Joseph n 888.3
2.38/6
A. Famewo n 377.3
1.63/1
T. Gale n 858.8
0.83/1
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Bolton Attacking

Bolton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
S. Dalby392277 min10.3 /9000 /9031 /9020.6 /9020.6 /9000 /90
K. Dong22448 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9011.9 /9000 /90
J. Sheehan392277 min00 /9000 /9041.3 /9010.3 /9020.6 /9000 /90
T. Gale372216 min10.4 /9000 /9031.3 /9010.4 /9052.1 /9052.1 /90
Gaizka Larrazabal368204 min00 /9000 /9020.9 /9000 /9020.9 /9010.4 /90
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Bolton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Dalby n 869.3
1.66/3
0.63/1
J. Sheehan n 890.5
1.45/2
0.22/0
J. Bonham n 890.9
00/0
00/0
C. Forino-Joseph n 888.3
0.84/2
0.32/0
A. Famewo n 377.3
00/0
00/0
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Bolton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Dalby n 869.3
0.32/0
0.21/0
J. Bonham n 890.9
00/0
00/0
J. Sheehan n 890.5
00/0
00/0
C. Forino-Joseph n 888.3
00/0
00/0
A. Famewo n 377.3
00/0
00/0
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Lincoln

Lincoln Goalkeeper

Lincoln — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
G. Wickens392275 min113.6 /9062 /9000 /90
J. Gauci19090 min22 /9011 /9000 /90
Lincoln — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Wickens n 890.6
2.75/4

Lincoln Defensive

Lincoln — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
D. Elerewe392275 min51.6 /9051.6 /9062 /90206.5 /9062 /9000 /90
T. Hamer392275 min31 /9041.3 /9010.3 /90237.5 /9020.7 /9010.3 /90
A. Reach389267 min20.7 /9031 /9010.3 /9062 /9020.7 /9010.3 /90
T. Darikwa380239 min51.9 /9020.8 /9010.4 /90103.8 /9041.5 /9000 /90
R. Towler369208 min10.4 /9031.3 /9020.9 /9093.9 /9000 /9000 /90
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Lincoln — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Ivan Varfolomeev n 874.3
1.45/2
1.46/2
J. Sheehan
F. Draper n 865.5
2.15/4
0.52/1
—
R. Street n 857.4
15/0
1.66/2
—
I. Olaofe n 436.8
2.43/1
3.12/2
—
R. Hackett n 854.5
0.83/1
0.21/0
—
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Lincoln — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Ivan Varfolomeev n 874.3
2.15/4
F. Draper n 865.5
1.75/3
R. Street n 857.4
0.83/1
I. Olaofe n 436.8
0.61/0
R. Hackett n 854.5
1.44/2
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Lincoln Attacking

Lincoln — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
F. Draper458232 min00 /9010.4 /9041.6 /9020.8 /9051.9 /9010.4 /90
R. Street451205 min10.4 /9000 /9041.8 /9010.4 /9020.9 /9000 /90
I. Olaofe437147 min10.6 /9000 /9010.6 /9010.6 /9000 /9021.2 /90
M. Melia334102 min00 /9000 /9021.8 /9010.9 /9000 /9000 /90
Ivan Varfolomeev467269 min00 /9010.3 /9031 /9020.7 /9051.7 /9000 /90
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Lincoln — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Ivan Varfolomeev n 874.3
0.83/2
0.52/1
F. Draper n 865.5
1.76/3
1.25/2
R. Street n 857.4
2.26/2
14/1
I. Olaofe n 436.8
0.61/0
0.61/0
R. Hackett n 854.5
2.14/3
0.82/1
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Lincoln — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 25 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Ivan Varfolomeev n 874.3
00/0
0.21/0
F. Draper n 865.5
0.21/0
0.32/0
R. Street n 857.4
0.63/0
0.21/0
I. Olaofe n 436.8
0.61/0
00/0
R. Hackett n 854.5
0.62/1
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BoltonLincoln
68%Possession32%
1.89Expected goals (xG)1.32
21Shots8
6Shots on target2
8Shots off target3
7Blocked shots3
13Shots inside the box5
14Corners2
0Offsides4
6Fouls15
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
1Saves7
528Passes253
86%Pass accuracy71%

Bolton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
L. Brunt9000111106.9
J. Bonham9000000007
C. Forino-Joseph9000000207.3
S. Dalby9000301006.2
M. Conway9000002107.2
J. Sheehan9000114108.2
E. Erhahon8000203107.3
J. McAtee7200110106.3
T. Gale7100001006.9
S. Iling-Junior6100001106.5
A. Famewo6100110007
Gaizka Larrazabal sub2900101006.2
K. Dong sub2900210006.2
J. Nelson sub1900112006.5
R. Hardie sub1800102006.5
D. Watson sub1000000006.5

Lincoln Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
R. Towler9000001207.9
A. Reach9000100207.2
C. McGrandles90000003Y6.9
D. Jefferies9000000507.2
D. Elerewe9000000007
C. Elder9001103107.3
G. Wickens9000000009
Ivan Varfolomeev85001116Y7.2
B. House85102105Y8.2
R. Hackett8000000206.7
F. Draper6500001006.2
R. Street sub2500000006.2
T. Bayliss sub1100000006.3
J. Honohan sub1100000006.6
I. Olaofe sub1000000006.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bolton v Lincoln — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BoltonWWLWD
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.4 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
LincolnWWLLW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Bolton 3 · 2 draws · Lincoln 1 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2026-02-14 Lincoln 1–1 Bolton
  • 2025-08-23 Bolton 1–1 Lincoln
  • 2025-04-21 Lincoln 4–2 Bolton
  • 2024-12-29 Bolton 3–0 Lincoln
  • 2023-12-26 Lincoln 0–1 Bolton
  • 2023-08-05 Bolton 3–0 Lincoln
League standing · 2026/27
Bolton#17 pos17 pts15 pl-9 GD
Lincoln#19 pos15 pts14 pl-10 GD
Goals per game
Bolton scored1.33
Lincoln scored1
Bolton conceded1.93
Lincoln conceded1.71

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Bolton v Lincoln?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Bolton v Lincoln was Home or Away (best price 1.35 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Lincoln?
In their last 6 meetings, Bolton won 3, Lincoln won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bolton and Lincoln?
Recent form — Bolton 3W 1D 1L; Lincoln 3W 0D 2L.

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