Bristol City v Lincoln result

Full-time · Bristol City 0–1 Lincoln

Championship · Tue, 15 Sep 2026 19:45 BST · Ashton Gate Stadium

Updated 29 Sep 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bristol City · Lincoln

The model’s pre-match pick

Bristol City 0–1 Lincoln — Lincoln won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Draw or Away.

Free pick

Draw or Away

Best price: 1.95 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.3% of 1454 landed (95% range 65.9–70.6%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Lincoln won 1–0 at Ashton Gate Stadium in the Championship on Tuesday 15 September. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Bristol City out-shot Lincoln 18 to 9 and created the better chances, 1.53 xG to 0.53 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Lincoln: Frederick Draper (53’, assisted by Benjamin House).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Frederick Draper’s goal on 53 minutes.

Discipline

Tim Robinson, England showed seven yellow cards — against 5.1 yellows a game across the last 8 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Bristol City: Lisav Naif Eissat (28’) and Lorent Tolaj (41’); Lincoln: Benjamin House (14’), D. Elerewe (37’), Frederick Draper (45’), Ryley Towler (68’) and George Wickens (69’).

What it changes

Bristol City move down from ninth to 12th (seven league matches played). Bristol City have scored 16 goals, the sixth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Bristol City have conceded 19 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Lincoln move up from 16th to ninth (seven league matches played). Lincoln have scored 14 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Lincoln have conceded 24 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Benjamin House (Lincoln) 5.5, Rio Cardines (Bristol City) 4.7 and Ivan Varfolomeev (Lincoln) 4.2 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, the draw or Lincoln, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 68.3% of the time in the last 90 days (993 of 1454).

Next up

Bristol City next host Norwich on 7 November 2026.

Lincoln next travel to QPR on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Bristol City: Bristol City v Norwich, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Lincoln: QPR v Lincoln, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Bristol City 0–1 Lincoln · Championship
Venue: Ashton Gate Stadium · Bristol
Referee: Tim Robinson, England
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 1): Bristol City 0 · draws 0 · Lincoln 1 · 4 goals/game
Recent form: Bristol City 3W 1D 1L · Lincoln 2W 2D 1L

Bristol City 0–1 Lincoln (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 29 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 1.13

Goals

against 1.5 / 1.38 · 5 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.25 / 3.5

Corners

against 6.75 / 7.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5 / 3.38

Shots on target

against 3 / 5 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.25 / 2.13

Cards

against 1.88 / 1.75 · 0 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

5.13 yellows

Referee · Tim Robinson, England

26 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 12 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 12 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Bristol City for / against	Line	Lincoln for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	1.13 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.25 for · 6.75 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.5 for · 7.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	15.5 for · 13.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.88 for · 17 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5 for · 3 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.38 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	10 for · 10.88 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.13 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.25 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.13 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Tim Robinson, England — 5.13 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 26 fouls over 8 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Bristol City

Bristol City Goalkeeper

Bristol City — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
S. Tickle	7	91635 min	121.7 /90	121.7 /90	00 /90

Bristol City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol City before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
S. Tickle n 7	90.7	1.7 3/2

Bristol City Defensive

Bristol City — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
R. Dickie	7	91635 min	91.3 /90	50.7 /90	81.1 /90	567.9 /90	81.1 /90	10.1 /90
Lisav Naif Eissat	7	86601 min	91.3 /90	40.6 /90	30.4 /90	345.1 /90	81.2 /90	10.1 /90
Rio Cardines	6	79472 min	112.1 /90	61.1 /90	00 /90	234.4 /90	20.4 /90	10.2 /90
G. Tanner	6	73438 min	40.8 /90	61.2 /90	61.2 /90	153.1 /90	51 /90	00 /90
C. Pring	4	54214 min	104.2 /90	20.8 /90	10.4 /90	229.3 /90	31.3 /90	00 /90
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Bristol City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol City before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
R. Dickie n 8	90.6	1 5/3	1.5 5/3	D. Elerewe
J. Knight n 8	90.6	0.9 5/1	0.4 2/1	Ivan Varfolomeev
S. Tickle n 7	90.7	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
Lisav Naif Eissat n 7	85.9	1.2 5/2	0 0/0	D. Elerewe
L. Tolaj n 7	74.1	2.4 7/5	1.2 4/2	F. Draper
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Bristol City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol City before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
R. Dickie n 8	90.6	1.2 6/3
J. Knight n 8	90.6	1 5/3
Lisav Naif Eissat n 7	85.9	1.3 6/3
L. Tolaj n 7	74.1	0.3 2/0
Y. Hirakawa n 8	52.5	1.5 4/2
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Bristol City Attacking

Bristol City — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
L. Tolaj	7	74519 min	20.3 /90	10.2 /90	203.5 /90	71.2 /90	81.4 /90	30.5 /90
D. Ballard	7	36251 min	20.7 /90	00 /90	103.6 /90	41.4 /90	31.1 /90	20.7 /90
L. Tolaj	2	79158 min	10.6 /90	10.6 /90	63.4 /90	31.7 /90	10.6 /90	10.6 /90
E. Riis	2	2652 min	00 /90	00 /90	11.7 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
J. Knight	7	91635 min	10.1 /90	00 /90	40.6 /90	20.3 /90	60.9 /90	60.9 /90
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Bristol City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol City before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
R. Dickie n 8	90.6	1.1 7/2	0.4 3/0
J. Knight n 8	90.6	0.5 3/1	0.2 2/0
S. Tickle n 7	90.7	0 0/0	0 0/0
Lisav Naif Eissat n 7	85.9	0.6 4/0	0.4 3/0
L. Tolaj n 7	74.1	3.5 7/6	1.2 4/2
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Bristol City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol City before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
R. Dickie n 8	90.6	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
J. Knight n 8	90.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
S. Tickle n 7	90.7	0 0/0	0 0/0
Lisav Naif Eissat n 7	85.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
L. Tolaj n 7	74.1	0.3 2/0	0.2 1/0
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Lincoln

Lincoln Goalkeeper

Lincoln — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
G. Wickens	7	91635 min	243.4 /90	71 /90	00 /90
J. Gauci	2	90180 min	63 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90

Lincoln — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
G. Wickens n 8	90.6	3 7/3

Lincoln Defensive

Lincoln — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Elerewe	8	82652 min	81.1 /90	91.2 /90	71 /90	344.7 /90	81.1 /90	00 /90
R. Towler	7	81568 min	61 /90	91.4 /90	81.3 /90	264.1 /90	10.2 /90	00 /90
Andrei Coubiș	5	67337 min	61.6 /90	51.3 /90	00 /90	195.1 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90
C. Elder	4	86343 min	112.9 /90	30.8 /90	10.3 /90	164.2 /90	41 /90	10.3 /90
T. Hamer	3	92275 min	31 /90	41.3 /90	10.3 /90	237.5 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90
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Lincoln — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
R. Hackett n 8	59.9	0.6 3/0	0.4 2/0	—
R. Street n 8	47.9	1.4 5/1	1.6 4/3	—
D. Elerewe n 8	81.5	1.1 4/2	0.4 2/1	Lisav Naif Eissat
F. Draper n 8	59.8	4.9 6/6	1.3 3/3	L. Tolaj
Ivan Varfolomeev n 8	59.8	1.1 4/1	0.6 2/1	J. Knight
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Lincoln — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
R. Hackett n 8	59.9	1.9 6/4
R. Street n 8	47.9	2.1 5/2
D. Elerewe n 8	81.5	1.1 4/3
Ivan Varfolomeev n 8	59.8	3 6/4
F. Draper n 8	59.8	0.9 3/2
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Lincoln Attacking

Lincoln — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
R. Street	9	51462 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	81.6 /90	20.4 /90	51 /90	10.2 /90
F. Draper	8	60478 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	81.5 /90	40.8 /90	91.7 /90	10.2 /90
B. House	7	70493 min	20.4 /90	00 /90	122.2 /90	61.1 /90	10.2 /90	10.2 /90
I. Olaofe	5	35177 min	10.5 /90	00 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90	21 /90
M. Melia	3	34102 min	00 /90	00 /90	21.8 /90	10.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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Lincoln — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
R. Hackett n 8	59.9	0.8 2/1	0.2 1/0
R. Street n 8	47.9	1.9 4/2	0.5 2/0
D. Elerewe n 8	81.5	0.6 4/0	0 0/0
F. Draper n 8	59.8	1.5 6/2	0.8 4/0
Ivan Varfolomeev n 8	59.8	0.9 4/1	0.6 2/1
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Lincoln — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 12 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
R. Hackett n 8	59.9	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
R. Street n 8	47.9	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
D. Elerewe n 8	81.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Draper n 8	59.8	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
Ivan Varfolomeev n 8	59.8	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Bristol City		Lincoln
68%	Possession	32%
1.53	Expected goals (xG)	0.53
18	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	3
8	Shots off target	3
6	Blocked shots	3
12	Shots inside the box	5
13	Corners	4
0	Offsides	2
13	Fouls	19
2	Yellow cards	5
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	4
520	Passes	250
83%	Pass accuracy	64%

Bristol City Player Stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Rio Cardines	90	0	0	7	2	0	7.6
S. Tickle	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
J. Knight	90	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
Y. Hirakawa	90	2	2	1	1	0	7
Lisav Naif Eissat	90	3	0	1	0	Y	6.3
G. Yah	90	0	0	0	2	0	7.5
C. Pring	86	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
S. Twine	76	0	0	2	1	0	6.9
L. Tolaj	76	2	0	0	0	Y	6.2
R. Dickie	76	1	0	0	0	0	6.5
J. Wallace	59	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
D. Ballard sub	31	2	0	2	0	0	6.3
Sam Greenwood sub	14	1	1	0	1	0	6.6
R. Atkinson sub	14	1	1	0	0	0	6.9
E. Adebayo sub	14	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
S. Bell sub	12	0	0	0	0	0	6.3

Lincoln Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
R. Towler	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	7.2
C. McGrandles	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7.3
D. Jefferies	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.7
B. House	90	0	1	0	0	2	4	Y	6.7
D. Elerewe	90	0	0	1	0	0	2	Y	7.3
S. Bradley	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
G. Wickens	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	7
Ivan Varfolomeev	89	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	6.6
A. Reach	71	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7.5
F. Draper	71	1	0	3	2	1	0	Y	7.3
C. Ogbene	63	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	6
R. Hackett sub	27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
D. Oyegoke sub	19	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
R. Street sub	19	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
T. Bayliss sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bristol City v Lincoln — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Bristol CityDWWWL

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

LincolnWDDLW

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 0.6 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 1

Bristol City 0 · 0 draws · Lincoln 1 · 4 goals/game

2022-11-08 Bristol City 1–3 Lincoln

League standing · 2026/27

Bristol City#15 pos18 pts14 pl-3 GD

Lincoln#19 pos15 pts14 pl-10 GD

Goals per game

Bristol City scored1.14

Lincoln scored1

Bristol City conceded1.36

Lincoln conceded1.71

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Bristol City v Lincoln?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Bristol City v Lincoln was Draw or Away (best price 1.95 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol City and Lincoln?: In their last 1 meetings, Bristol City won 0, Lincoln won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bristol City and Lincoln?: Recent form — Bristol City 3W 1D 1L; Lincoln 2W 2D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 29 Sep 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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