Derby v Bolton prediction

Championship · Fri, 06 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT · Pride Park

Updated 5 Nov 2026, 21:48 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Derby · Bolton · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Derby v Bolton, Championship on Fri, 06 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.73 at Bet365

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.2% of 549 landed (95% range 63.2–71%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Derby host Bolton in the Championship on Friday 6 November (kick-off 20:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Derby are winless in their last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Derby have no wins, two draws and six defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 0.25 points per game, scoring 0.63 and conceding 2.00. Derby have scored 11 goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Derby have conceded 29 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs.

Nine of Bolton’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in eight of Bolton’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Bolton have three wins, two draws and three defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 1.38 points per game, scoring 1.25 and conceding 1.50. Bolton have scored 19 goals, the 10th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Bolton have conceded 26 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Derby (23rd) and Bolton (17th) are 10 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Bolton the stronger side, 142 rating points above Derby (Bolton 1398, Derby 1256, after at least 106 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 16 March 2024, finished Derby 1–0 Bolton.

Team news

Derby have eight names on the availability list: C. Forsyth (out, Knee Injury), C. Taylor (out, Injury), D. Murkin (out, Hamstring Injury), E. Cashin (out, Inactive), M. Clarke (out, Calf Injury), P. Agyemang (out, Achilles Tendon Injury) and two more — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-11-05. Predicted Derby XI (4-2-3-1): J. Widell Zetterström, R. Nyambe, D. Sanderson, R. Hedges, M. Johnston, B. Clark, S. Szmodics, D. Ozoh, A. Mowatt, R. Brewster, C. Morris — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Bobby Clark (4.0 per match over 15 appearances, three goals and two assists) and Carlton Morris (3.4 per match over 11 appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Derby’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Derby (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bobby Clark averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 1275 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Carlton Morris averages 1.6 shots per 90 over 948 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Bolton have six names on the availability list: E. Erhahon (out, Thigh Injury), E. Toal (out, Inactive), J. McAtee (out, Knee Injury), J. Nelson (out, Inactive), R. Hardie (out, Hamstring Injury) and G. Bazunu (doubtful, Inactive) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-11-05. Predicted Bolton XI (4-2-3-1): J. Bonham, M. Conway, G. Larrazabal, A. Famewo, C. Forino-Joseph, J. Sheehan, A. Ito, T. Gale, X. Simons, S. Iling-Junior, S. Dalby — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Chris Forino-Joseph (4.4 per match over nine appearances) and Max Conway (3.7 per match over 14 appearances, one assist) have been Bolton’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Bolton (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Chris Forino-Joseph averages 2.5 tackles per 90 over 784 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last nine appearances. Max Conway averages 2.6 tackles per 90 over 918 minutes, with a tackle in six of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Fri, 06 Nov 2026 20:00 GMT · Championship · Pride Park
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Derby 3 · draws 1 · Bolton 2 · 2 goals/game
Recent form: Derby 0W 1D 4L · Bolton 2W 1D 2L

Derby v Bolton (Championship): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.75 / 1.63

Goals

against 2.25 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

5.25 / 4.5

Corners

against 4.63 / 6.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.13 / 4.63

Shots on target

against 6.5 / 5.75 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.25 / 1.88

Cards

against 2 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 3 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Derby for / against	Line	Bolton for / against
Goals scored	0.75 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	1.63 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.25 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.5 for · 6.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.38 for · 15.5 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	14 for · 16 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.13 for · 6.5 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.63 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11 for · 9 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.75 for · 9.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.25 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.88 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5

Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström	11	90995 min	494.4 /90	161.4 /90	00 /90
J. Vickers	4	90360 min	92.3 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90

Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	5.1 7/7
J. Vickers n 8	89.5	2 6/3

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Sanderson	13	821061 min	131.1 /90	131.1 /90	110.9 /90	554.7 /90	121 /90	40.3 /90
S. Langås	10	91905 min	171.7 /90	60.6 /90	50.5 /90	414.1 /90	70.7 /90	40.4 /90
J. Ward	10	80800 min	161.8 /90	171.9 /90	20.2 /90	353.9 /90	50.6 /90	00 /90
C. Taylor	9	86774 min	161.9 /90	80.9 /90	80.9 /90	354.1 /90	101.2 /90	10.1 /90
M. Johnston	8	50396 min	81.8 /90	30.7 /90	20.5 /90	92 /90	40.9 /90	10.2 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.6 4/1	1.3 6/2	—
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0	—
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.8 5/1	0.3 2/0	—
R. Hedges n 8	72.4	0.6 4/0	1.2 4/3	—
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	2 6/4
S. Szmodics n 8	78	1.6 6/2
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	1.2 5/3
R. Hedges n 8	72.4	2.5 7/5
C. Morris n 8	84.4	0.8 5/1
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. Morris	11	86948 min	10.1 /90	10.1 /90	171.6 /90	60.6 /90	111 /90	50.5 /90
R. Brewster	10	39391 min	00 /90	00 /90	40.9 /90	10.2 /90	40.9 /90	20.5 /90
H. Meister	9	47426 min	00 /90	00 /90	102.1 /90	30.6 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90
L. Salvesen	7	33230 min	20.8 /90	00 /90	114.3 /90	52 /90	31.2 /90	20.8 /90
B. Clark	15	851275 min	30.2 /90	20.1 /90	201.4 /90	90.6 /90	231.6 /90	181.3 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	1.5 7/3	0.9 5/2
S. Szmodics n 8	78	2 6/5	0.9 4/2
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
R. Hedges n 8	72.4	0.8 3/2	0.5 3/0
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Hedges n 8	72.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Bolton

Bolton Goalkeeper

Bolton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Bonham	8	91727 min	253.1 /90	101.2 /90	00 /90
Gavin Bazunu	7	90630 min	294.1 /90	142 /90	00 /90

Bolton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Bonham n 8	90.9	3.1 5/2
Gavin Bazunu n 7	90	4.1 6/3

Bolton Defensive

Bolton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Gaizka Larrazabal	14	731017 min	70.6 /90	232 /90	50.4 /90	312.7 /90	141.2 /90	20.2 /90
M. Conway	12	75897 min	272.7 /90	171.7 /90	70.7 /90	727.2 /90	90.9 /90	10.1 /90
A. Famewo	10	76764 min	161.9 /90	101.2 /90	30.4 /90	576.7 /90	80.9 /90	30.4 /90
C. Forino-Joseph	9	87784 min	222.5 /90	192.2 /90	80.9 /90	667.6 /90	20.2 /90	10.1 /90
B. Davies	8	81651 min	50.7 /90	81.1 /90	10.1 /90	294 /90	20.3 /90	10.1 /90
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Bolton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Sheehan n 8	88	1.4 7/3	1.3 5/3	—
S. Dalby n 8	67	1 4/1	0.7 2/1	—
T. Gale n 8	64.3	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0	—
Gaizka Larrazabal n 8	81.1	0.7 4/1	0.4 3/0	—
M. Conway n 8	75	1.1 6/1	1.5 5/4	—
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Bolton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Sheehan n 8	88	1.2 6/2
S. Dalby n 8	67	0.8 3/1
T. Gale n 8	64.3	1.8 6/4
Gaizka Larrazabal n 8	81.1	0.6 2/1
M. Conway n 8	75	3.6 6/5
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Bolton Attacking

Bolton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
S. Dalby	15	761137 min	60.5 /90	00 /90	201.6 /90	100.8 /90	110.9 /90	20.2 /90
Ruben Rodrigues	12	48574 min	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	172.7 /90	91.4 /90	264.1 /90	71.1 /90
K. Dong	11	46509 min	00 /90	10.2 /90	81.4 /90	40.7 /90	50.9 /90	20.4 /90
Thelonius Bair	5	43213 min	10.4 /90	10.4 /90	41.7 /90	10.4 /90	20.8 /90	00 /90
R. Hardie	5	25126 min	00 /90	00 /90	32.1 /90	00 /90	32.1 /90	00 /90
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Bolton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Sheehan n 8	88	1.3 7/3	0.6 4/1
S. Dalby n 8	67	1.8 6/1	1 6/0
T. Gale n 8	64.3	1.8 6/3	0.9 4/1
Gaizka Larrazabal n 8	81.1	1 4/2	0.3 1/1
M. Conway n 8	75	0.5 3/0	0 0/0
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Bolton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Sheehan n 8	88	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
S. Dalby n 8	67	0.7 4/0	0 0/0
T. Gale n 8	64.3	0.4 2/0	0.2 1/0
Gaizka Larrazabal n 8	81.1	0.1 1/0	0.4 3/0
M. Conway n 8	75	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Derby v Bolton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

DerbyLLDLL

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.6 scored / 2.8 conceded per game

BoltonWDLLW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Derby 3 · 1 draw · Bolton 2 · 2 goals/game

2024-03-16 Derby 1–0 Bolton
2023-09-02 Bolton 2–1 Derby
2023-01-21 Derby 2–1 Bolton
2022-12-27 Bolton 0–0 Derby
2019-04-13 Derby 4–0 Bolton
2018-09-29 Bolton 1–0 Derby

League standing · 2026/27

Derby#23 pos7 pts14 pl-18 GD

Bolton#17 pos17 pts14 pl-7 GD

Goals per game

Derby scored0.79

Bolton scored1.36

Derby conceded2.07

Bolton conceded1.86

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Derby v Bolton?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Derby v Bolton is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.73 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bolton?: In their last 6 meetings, Derby won 3, Bolton won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Derby and Bolton?: Recent form — Derby 0W 1D 4L; Bolton 2W 1D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 5 Nov 2026, 21:48 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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