Derby v Bristol City result

Full-time · Derby 1–1 Bristol City

Championship · · Pride Park

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Derby · Bristol City · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Derby 1–1 Bristol City — this Championship match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.3% of 176 landed (95% range 44.9–59.5%); it had given them 77.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Derby and Bristol City drew 1–1 at Pride Park in the Championship on Friday 22 August. Derby are winless in their last five matches in all competitions. Bristol City are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.

The goals

Bristol City led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Bristol City: Scott Twine (35’, assisted by Mark Sykes); Derby: Carlton Morris (86’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Carlton Morris’s goal on 86 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Derby 0.47, Bristol City 0.76, from 5 shots to 11 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

D. Webb showed three yellow cards — against 2.8 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Derby: Jacob Widell Zetterström (65’), Ebrima Adams (74’) and Carlton Morris (90+4’).

What it changes

Derby move up from 24th to 19th (three league matches played).

Bristol City move down from third to fourth (three league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Scott Twine (Bristol City) 8.8, Mark Sykes (Bristol City) 7.6 and Carlton Morris (Derby) 5.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Derby next travel to Sheffield Utd on 24 October 2026.

Bristol City next travel to Stoke City on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Derby: Sheffield Utd v Derby, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Bristol City: Stoke City v Bristol City, Saturday 24 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Derby 1–1 Bristol City · Championship
  • Venue: Pride Park · Derby
  • Referee: D. Webb
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Derby 2 · draws 0 · Bristol City 4 · 1.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Derby 1W 2D 2L · Bristol City 2W 1D 2L

Derby 1–1 Bristol City (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.38 / 1.13
Goals
against 1.63 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.43 / 3.75
Corners
against 5.43 / 6.25 · 3 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
3.43 / 2.75
Shots on target
against 4.57 / 5.13 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.57 / 0.88
Cards
against 2.29 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
2.8 yellows
Referee · D. Webb
1.1 home / 1.7 away
over 10 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameDerby for / againstLineBristol City for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.63 against n 8
2.5standard
1.13 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
4.43 for · 5.43 against n 7
9.5standard
3.75 for · 6.25 against n 8
Shots
8.71 for · 13.14 against n 7
19.5standard
10.63 for · 15.25 against n 8
Shots on target
3.43 for · 4.57 against n 7
8.5standard
2.75 for · 5.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.29 for · 10.43 against n 7
21.5standard
8.13 for · 9.75 against n 8
Cards shown
2.57 for · 2.29 against n 7
3.5standard
0.88 for · 1.13 against n 8

Referee: D. Webb — 2.8 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 21.6 fouls over 10 matches (1.1 to the home side, 1.7 to the away side).

Derby
Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
E. Adams n 882.3
38/5
2.78/7
—
K. Goudmijn n 828.9
2.33/2
1.22/1
—
M. Harness n 880.5
2.27/5
0.73/2
—
C. Morris n 880.3
1.86/4
0.84/2
—
K. Jackson n 838.9
1.73/3
2.65/3
—
Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Weimann n 833.3
1.73/2
12/1
N. Mendez-Laing n 849.1
1.44/1
1.13/1
J. Yates n 878.8
1.13/2
0.73/1
J. Ward n 830.1
1.13/0
0.72/0
N. Phillips n 890
15/2
0.42/1
Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Weimann n 833.3
0.31/0
0.31/0
C. Elder n 890
0.11/0
0.32/0
E. Adams n 882.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
C. Morris n 880.3
0.43/0
00/0
N. Mendez-Laing n 849.1
0.21/0
0.21/0
Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Ozoh n 860.8
4.47/6
J. Rooney n 875
3.86/5
E. Adams n 882.3
2.57/3
R. Nyambe n 869.6
2.46/5
M. Harness n 880.5
2.27/5
Bristol City
Bristol City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Bell n 812.9
3.53/1
0.91/0
—
S. Armstrong n 822.3
34/1
0.51/0
—
M. Sykes n 851.5
1.77/1
1.15/0
—
R. McCrorie n 886.1
1.45/4
0.53/1
—
N. Wells n 874.3
1.15/2
1.76/3
—
Bristol City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Twine n 847.3
2.97/4
0.72/1
S. Armstrong n 822.3
1.52/1
0.51/0
R. McCrorie n 886.1
1.33/2
0.73/2
N. Wells n 874.3
1.25/2
0.62/2
E. Riis n 855
1.24/1
0.83/1
Bristol City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Twine n 847.3
0.51/1
0.72/1
E. Riis n 855
0.42/0
0.21/0
R. McCrorie n 886.1
0.53/1
0.11/0
R. Atkinson n 883
0.31/1
00/0
N. Wells n 874.3
00/0
0.32/0
Bristol City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
C. Pring n 878.5
36/5
S. Twine n 847.3
2.46/2
Y. Hirakawa n 855.8
23/3
Anis Mehmeti n 862.4
1.85/2
S. Bell n 812.9
1.72/0

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
DerbyBristol City
52%Possession48%
0.47Expected goals (xG)0.76
5Shots11
2Shots on target3
1Shots off target4
2Blocked shots4
4Shots inside the box8
4Corners5
2Offsides1
15Fouls5
3Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
2Saves1
489Passes454
81%Pass accuracy80%

Derby player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Widell Zetterström90000010Y6.7
D. Sanderson9000000007.2
M. Clarke9000000406.9
C. Elder9000002106.3
E. Adams90000000Y6.3
C. Morris90102100Y7.5
D. Batth7000000107.2
D. Ozoh7000000106.6
R. Nyambe6000000206.3
A. Weimann6000000006.2
L. Thompson5900000206.9
B. Clark sub3200000206.7
J. Ward sub3100110006.3
R. Brewster sub3100000006.9
K. Goudmijn sub2100000106.7
K. Jackson sub2100000006.3

Bristol City player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
R. Vítek9000000006.3
Z. Vyner9000000006.6
R. Dickie9000000007.2
R. Atkinson9000000106.6
M. Sykes9001002107.2
J. Knight9000100006.9
R. McCrorie9000100306.7
Anis Mehmeti9000200206.5
S. Twine8910223307.9
A. Randell7300000206.6
E. Riis5400000106.2
S. Armstrong sub3700110006.7
M. Bird sub1800000006.3
Y. Hirakawa sub10000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Derby v Bristol City — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
DerbyWDLDL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Bristol CityLLWWD
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Derby 2 · 0 draws · Bristol City 4 · 1.83 goals/game
  • 2025-01-04 Bristol City 1–0 Derby
  • 2024-08-31 Derby 3–0 Bristol City
  • 2022-04-23 Derby 1–3 Bristol City
  • 2021-12-04 Bristol City 1–0 Derby
  • 2021-01-30 Derby 1–0 Bristol City
  • 2020-11-21 Bristol City 1–0 Derby
League standing · 2025/26
Derby#8 pos69 pts46 pl+8 GD
Bristol City#12 pos62 pts46 pl0 GD
Goals per game
Derby scored1.46
Bristol City scored1.28
Derby conceded1.28
Bristol City conceded1.28

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1.00 — the full match analysis

£1.00 for 14 days, then £9.99/month. Cancel in the trial and pay nothing more.

Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Derby v Bristol City?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Derby v Bristol City was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Bristol City?
In their last 6 meetings, Derby won 2, Bristol City won 4 and there were 0 draws, averaging 1.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Derby and Bristol City?
Recent form — Derby 1W 2D 2L; Bristol City 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all 246 predictions, advanced stats & value against the bookies with ProTry Pro for £1.00 →