Derby v Watford prediction

Championship · Sat, 28 Nov 2026 15:00 GMT · Pride Park

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Derby · Watford · Head-to-head

TACTIX’s free model pick for Derby v Watford, Championship on Sat, 28 Nov 2026 15:00 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Derby host Watford in the Championship on Saturday 28 November (kick-off 15:00 UK).

The key numbers

Watford are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Derby, every meeting checked.

Form and the table

Nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Derby have one win, two draws and five defeats in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 0.63 points per game, scoring 0.88 and conceding 1.88. Derby have scored 14 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 15 games). Derby have conceded 30 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Six of Watford’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in seven of Watford’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, Watford have no wins, one draw and six defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.14 points per game, scoring 0.57 and conceding 2.00. Watford have scored 13 goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 15 games). Watford have conceded 23 goals, the 12th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Derby (23rd) and Watford (20th) are five points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Derby the stronger side, 0 rating points above Watford (Derby 1329, Watford 1329, after at least 245 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 21 February 2026, finished Watford 2–0 Derby.

Team news

Predicted Derby XI (4-2-3-1): J. Widell Zetterström, R. Nyambe, D. Sanderson, J. Robinson, R. Hedges, B. Clark, D. Ozoh, S. Szmodics, R. Brewster, M. Fuseini, C. Morris — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Bobby Clark (3.8 per match over 16 appearances, three goals and two assists) and Carlton Morris (3.6 per match over 12 appearances, one goal and two assists) have been Derby’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Derby (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bobby Clark averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 1365 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Carlton Morris averages 1.6 shots per 90 over 1037 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Watford XI (5-3-2): F. Ravaglia, M. Pollock, K. Keben, B. Mlačić, O. Traoré, M. Bola, E. Kayembe, H. Kyprianou, I. Bravo, M. Boadu, M. Doumbia — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Hector Kyprianou (3.3 per match over 16 appearances, one goal) and Iker Bravo (3.2 per match over 16 appearances, one goal and three assists) have been Watford’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Watford (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Hector Kyprianou averages 0.6 key passes per 90 over 1681 minutes, with a key pass in four of the last 10 appearances. Iker Bravo averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 1177 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 28 Nov 2026 15:00 GMT · Championship · Pride Park
Head-to-head (last 6): Derby 0 · draws 0 · Watford 6 · 2.67 goals/game
Recent form: Derby 1W 1D 3L · Watford 2W 1D 2L

Derby v Watford (Championship): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 0.75

Goals

against 2.13 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.5 / 4

Corners

against 4.88 / 6 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.25 / 3.88

Shots on target

against 6.13 / 5.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.25 / 2.75

Cards

against 1.88 / 2.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 7 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 7 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Derby for / against	Line	Watford for / against
Goals scored	1 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.75 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.5 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4 for · 6 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	12.25 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.25 for · 17.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.25 for · 6.13 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.88 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.5 for · 8.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.75 for · 12.13 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.25 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.75 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5

Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström	12	901085 min	544.5 /90	161.3 /90	00 /90
J. Vickers	4	90360 min	92.3 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90

Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	4.6 7/7
J. Vickers n 8	89.5	2 6/3

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Sanderson	14	821151 min	131 /90	161.3 /90	110.9 /90	554.3 /90	120.9 /90	40.3 /90
S. Langås	10	91905 min	171.7 /90	60.6 /90	50.5 /90	414.1 /90	70.7 /90	40.4 /90
J. Ward	10	80800 min	161.8 /90	171.9 /90	20.2 /90	353.9 /90	50.6 /90	00 /90
C. Taylor	9	86774 min	161.9 /90	80.9 /90	80.9 /90	354.1 /90	101.2 /90	10.1 /90
M. Johnston	8	50396 min	81.8 /90	30.7 /90	20.5 /90	92 /90	40.9 /90	10.2 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.6 4/1	1.4 6/3	—
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.7 4/1	0.1 1/0	—
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0	—
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
C. Morris n 8	84.3	1.9 7/5	0.8 6/0	—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	1.6 6/3
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	1 4/2
S. Szmodics n 8	78	1.6 6/2
C. Morris n 8	84.3	0.8 5/1
A. Mowatt n 8	67.1	1.7 4/3
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. Morris	12	861037 min	10.1 /90	20.2 /90	181.6 /90	70.6 /90	141.2 /90	50.4 /90
R. Brewster	11	44481 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	50.9 /90	20.4 /90	40.7 /90	20.4 /90
H. Meister	9	47426 min	00 /90	00 /90	102.1 /90	30.6 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90
L. Salvesen	7	33230 min	20.8 /90	00 /90	114.3 /90	52 /90	31.2 /90	20.8 /90
B. Clark	16	851365 min	30.2 /90	20.1 /90	211.4 /90	90.6 /90	231.5 /90	181.2 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	1.3 7/2	0.8 4/2
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
S. Szmodics n 8	78	2 6/5	0.9 4/2
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Morris n 8	84.3	1.6 6/3	0.5 4/0
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Morris n 8	84.3	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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Watford

Watford Goalkeeper

Watford — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
F. Ravaglia	16	911452 min	553.4 /90	201.2 /90	10.1 /90
D. Bachmann	1	9090 min	66 /90	55 /90	00 /90

Watford — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
F. Ravaglia n 8	90	3.8 7/7

Watford Defensive

Watford — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
M. Pollock	16	911452 min	191.2 /90	211.3 /90	201.2 /90	704.3 /90	181.1 /90	30.2 /90
K. Keben	16	881407 min	211.3 /90	140.9 /90	140.9 /90	493.1 /90	140.9 /90	30.2 /90
J. Zemura	13	58754 min	161.9 /90	151.8 /90	20.2 /90	475.6 /90	131.6 /90	30.4 /90
O. Traoré	12	67798 min	111.2 /90	80.9 /90	20.2 /90	232.6 /90	91 /90	20.2 /90
M. Bola	8	54433 min	102.1 /90	71.5 /90	10.2 /90	316.4 /90	20.4 /90	00 /90
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Watford — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Pollock n 8	90	1 6/2	0.5 3/1	—
F. Ravaglia n 8	90	0 0/0	0.5 4/0	—
K. Keben n 8	90	1.1 6/2	0.5 3/1	—
Hector Kyprianou n 8	90	1 6/2	1.6 7/5	—
E. Kayembe n 8	90	1.1 5/4	0.6 4/1	—
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Watford — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
M. Pollock n 8	90	0.9 6/1
K. Keben n 8	90	1.1 6/2
Hector Kyprianou n 8	90	1.8 6/6
E. Kayembe n 8	90	1.8 7/5
Iker Bravo n 8	73.1	0.9 4/1
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Watford Attacking

Watford — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
M. Doumbia	15	56844 min	20.2 /90	00 /90	181.9 /90	101.1 /90	101.1 /90	50.5 /90
L. Kjerrumgaard	10	60598 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	121.8 /90	40.6 /90	71.1 /90	20.3 /90
Rocco Vata	9	33295 min	00 /90	00 /90	113.4 /90	51.5 /90	72.1 /90	41.2 /90
M. Boadu	7	54379 min	20.5 /90	10.2 /90	81.9 /90	30.7 /90	30.7 /90	20.5 /90
S. Mavididi	7	42297 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	51.5 /90	20.6 /90	51.5 /90	82.4 /90
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Watford — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Pollock n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Ravaglia n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Keben n 8	90	0.3 1/1	0 0/0
Hector Kyprianou n 8	90	0.8 5/1	0.4 3/0
E. Kayembe n 8	90	1.6 7/4	0.3 1/1
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Watford — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Watford before kick-off, to 7 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Pollock n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
F. Ravaglia n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Keben n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Hector Kyprianou n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
E. Kayembe n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Derby v Watford — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

DerbyLDLLW

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

WatfordWLLWD

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Derby 0 · 0 draws · Watford 6 · 2.67 goals/game

2026-02-21 Watford 2–0 Derby
2025-11-22 Derby 2–3 Watford
2025-01-18 Derby 0–2 Watford
2024-08-24 Watford 2–1 Derby
2021-02-19 Watford 2–1 Derby
2020-10-16 Derby 0–1 Watford

League standing · 2026/27

Derby#23 pos10 pts15 pl-16 GD

Watford#20 pos15 pts15 pl-10 GD

Goals per game

Derby scored0.93

Watford scored0.87

Derby conceded2

Watford conceded1.53

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Watford?: In their last 6 meetings, Derby won 0, Watford won 6 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Derby and Watford?: Recent form — Derby 1W 1D 3L; Watford 2W 1D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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