MillwallDerby

Millwall v Derby result

Full-time · Millwall 4–1 Derby

Championship · · The Den

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Millwall · Derby · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Millwall 4–1 Derby — Millwall won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.85 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.3% of 515 landed (95% range 64.2–72.2%); it had given them 75.8% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Millwall beat Derby 4–1 at The Den in the Championship on Saturday 31 October. Derby are winless in their last nine matches in all competitions.

The goals

Millwall led 3–0 at half-time. The goals — Millwall: Kyrell Lisbie (3’, assisted by Lyndon Dykes; 10’, assisted by Caleb Taylor), Luke Cundle (17’, assisted by Camiel Neghli) and Jake Cooper (84’, assisted by M. Ivanović); Derby: Filip Bilbija (87’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Kyrell Lisbie’s goal on 3 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Millwall 3.76, Derby 1.27, from 21 shots to 13 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Millwall: Lyndon Dykes (24’), Derek Mazou-Sacko (32’) and Jenson Metcalfe (89’); Derby: Rhian Brewster (45+1’) and Carlton Morris (71’).

What it changes

Millwall stay 13th after this result (13 league matches played). Millwall have scored 23 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 13 games, ranked per game). Millwall have conceded 21 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Derby stay 23rd after this result (13 league matches played). Derby have scored 11 goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 13 games, ranked per game). Derby have conceded 25 goals, the third-most of the 24 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Kyrell Lisbie (Millwall) 8.6, Luke Cundle (Millwall) 7.8 and Caleb Taylor (Millwall) 7.3 led the match.

Head-to-head

Millwall are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Derby, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Millwall next travel to West Brom on 7 November 2026.

Derby next travel to Southampton on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Millwall: West Brom v Millwall, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Derby: Southampton v Derby, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Millwall 4–1 Derby · Championship
  • Venue: The Den · London
  • Referee: Anthony Backhouse
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Millwall 3 · draws 3 · Derby 0 · 1.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Millwall 1W 2D 2L · Derby 0W 3D 2L

Millwall 4–1 Derby (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 7 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 0.63
Goals
against 1.63 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
5.13 / 6.25
Corners
against 7.25 / 4.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.63 / 3.75
Shots on target
against 3.88 / 5.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.5 / 2.13
Cards
against 2.75 / 2.25 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 24 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 24 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameMillwall for / againstLineDerby for / against
Goals scored
1.13 for · 1.63 against n 8
2.75our book
0.63 for · 1.75 against n 8
Corners won
5.13 for · 7.25 against n 8
9.5standard
6.25 for · 4.5 against n 8
Shots
12.75 for · 15.25 against n 8
19.5standard
13.13 for · 13.5 against n 8
Shots on target
3.63 for · 3.88 against n 8
8.5standard
3.75 for · 5.38 against n 8
Fouls committed
13.25 for · 10.38 against n 8
21.5standard
12.13 for · 8.75 against n 8
Cards shown
2.5 for · 2.75 against n 8
3.5standard
2.13 for · 2.25 against n 8

Referee: Anthony Backhouse.

Millwall

Millwall Goalkeeper

Millwall — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Crocombe884675 min162.1 /90152 /9000 /90
F. Marschall581405 min112.4 /9030.7 /9000 /90
L. Jensen290180 min21 /9000 /9000 /90
Millwall — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Crocombe n 884.4
2.13/2
F. Marschall n 581
2.42/2
L. Jensen n 890
2.65/3

Millwall Defensive

Millwall — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Cooper14891252 min151.1 /90141 /90141 /90876.3 /90181.3 /9020.1 /90
C. Taylor13901170 min141.1 /90332.5 /90120.9 /90765.8 /9060.5 /9000 /90
Zak Norton Sturge13821067 min181.5 /90141.2 /9090.8 /90544.6 /90181.5 /9030.3 /90
J. Osei-Tutu867537 min81.3 /9050.8 /9010.2 /90274.5 /9040.7 /9000 /90
E. Baggott653317 min41.1 /9041.1 /9010.3 /90185.1 /9010.3 /9000 /90
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Millwall — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Cooper n 889
27/6
0.84/2
R. Hedges
C. Neghli n 889.9
0.84/1
0.32/0
S. Szmodics
Jenson Metcalfe n 880.1
1.86/3
1.86/4
B. Clark
C. Taylor n 890
0.43/0
0.64/1
R. Hedges
Zak Norton Sturge n 889.3
1.67/5
1.35/5
R. Hedges
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Millwall — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Cooper n 889
1.55/3
C. Neghli n 889.9
1.57/4
Jenson Metcalfe n 880.1
2.98/7
C. Taylor n 890
1.37/3
Zak Norton Sturge n 889.3
13/3
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Millwall Attacking

Millwall — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
L. Dykes1185931 min40.4 /9010.1 /90191.8 /9070.7 /90111.1 /9020.2 /90
T. Arconte969619 min30.4 /9000 /90111.6 /9040.6 /9050.7 /9060.9 /90
Z. Lovelace635212 min00 /9020.8 /9010.4 /9000 /9020.8 /9010.4 /90
J. Coburn476304 min20.6 /9000 /9072.1 /9051.5 /9051.5 /9010.3 /90
Y. Issoufou431123 min00 /9000 /9010.7 /9000 /9010.7 /9010.7 /90
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Millwall — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Cooper n 889
0.84/2
0.32/0
C. Neghli n 889.9
1.58/3
0.64/1
Jenson Metcalfe n 880.1
0.74/1
0.32/0
C. Taylor n 890
15/2
0.43/0
Zak Norton Sturge n 889.3
0.54/0
00/0
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Millwall — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Cooper n 889
0.11/0
00/0
C. Neghli n 889.9
0.32/0
0.11/0
Jenson Metcalfe n 880.1
0.11/0
00/0
C. Taylor n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
Zak Norton Sturge n 889.3
00/0
0.11/0
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Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström991815 min404.4 /90161.8 /9000 /90
J. Vickers490360 min92.3 /9071.8 /9000 /90
Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 890
4.87/6
J. Vickers n 889.5
26/3

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
D. Sanderson1281971 min100.9 /90131.2 /90111 /90494.5 /90111 /9040.4 /90
S. Langås1091905 min171.7 /9060.6 /9050.5 /90414.1 /9070.7 /9040.4 /90
J. Ward1080800 min161.8 /90171.9 /9020.2 /90353.9 /9050.6 /9000 /90
C. Taylor986774 min161.9 /9080.9 /9080.9 /90354.1 /90101.2 /9010.1 /90
M. Johnston636216 min41.7 /9010.4 /9010.4 /9041.7 /9031.3 /9010.4 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
B. Clark n 881.1
0.42/1
14/1
Jenson Metcalfe
D. Sanderson n 881.4
0.85/1
0.32/0
—
S. Szmodics n 882.8
0.11/0
0.43/0
C. Neghli
R. Hedges n 870
0.64/0
13/2
Zak Norton Sturge
S. Langås n 890
0.53/1
0.43/0
—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
B. Clark n 881.1
2.26/4
D. Sanderson n 881.4
15/2
S. Szmodics n 882.8
1.16/1
R. Hedges n 870
2.16/4
S. Langås n 890
1.66/4
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
C. Morris987780 min10.1 /9010.1 /90101.2 /9040.5 /90111.3 /9030.3 /90
R. Brewster837296 min00 /9000 /9020.6 /9000 /9020.6 /9010.3 /90
H. Meister742296 min00 /9000 /9082.4 /9030.9 /9030.9 /9020.6 /90
L. Salvesen733230 min20.8 /9000 /90114.3 /9052 /9031.2 /9020.8 /90
B. Clark13841095 min30.2 /9020.2 /90191.6 /9090.7 /90191.6 /90181.5 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
B. Clark n 881.1
1.77/3
15/2
D. Sanderson n 881.4
0.11/0
00/0
S. Szmodics n 882.8
1.96/5
0.84/2
R. Hedges n 870
0.83/2
0.53/0
S. Langås n 890
0.32/0
00/0
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 24 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
B. Clark n 881.1
0.32/0
00/0
D. Sanderson n 881.4
00/0
00/0
S. Szmodics n 882.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
R. Hedges n 870
00/0
00/0
S. Langås n 890
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
MillwallDerby
56%Possession44%
3.76Expected goals (xG)1.27
21Shots13
9Shots on target4
10Shots off target6
2Blocked shots3
17Shots inside the box8
4Corners5
2Offsides1
9Fouls9
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
3Saves5
513Passes403

Millwall Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
M. Crocombe9000000007
C. Taylor9001201107.1
J. Cooper9010110007.6
Jenson Metcalfe90000014Y6.3
D. Mazou-Sacko90001111Y6.6
L. Cundle9010222208.2
Zak Norton Sturge7800100207
C. Neghli7401205107.7
K. Lisbie7420531008.6
L. Dykes68013120Y7.1
T. Crama6700002206.5
R. Leonard2300001106.8
M. Ivanović2201003007.7
M. Sykes1600100106.4
A. Doughty1600100206.4
R. Esse1200210005.9

Derby Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Robinson9000000305.8
R. Nyambe9000000206.1
M. Johnston9000102005.4
R. Hedges9000000305.9
B. Clark9000002105.6
J. Widell Zetterström9000000006.5
S. Szmodics7800203006.3
C. Morris78004100Y6.6
R. Brewster78002121Y6.4
H. Meister5700100105.7
A. Mowatt5300000006.1
D. Ozoh3700000106.4
M. Fuseini3300100106.4
F. Bilbija1210111006.8
O. Fraulo1200110005.9
L. Salvesen1200000006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Millwall v Derby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
MillwallDWLDL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
DerbyDDLLD
Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 0.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Millwall 3 · 3 draws · Derby 0 · 1.83 goals/game
  • 2026-03-10 Millwall 1–0 Derby
  • 2025-12-10 Derby 1–1 Millwall
  • 2025-02-22 Derby 0–1 Millwall
  • 2024-10-19 Millwall 1–1 Derby
  • 2022-02-23 Derby 1–2 Millwall
  • 2021-11-06 Millwall 1–1 Derby
League standing · 2026/27
Millwall#13 pos18 pts14 pl-1 GD
Derby#23 pos10 pts15 pl-16 GD
Goals per game
Millwall scored1.64
Derby scored0.93
Millwall conceded1.71
Derby conceded2

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Millwall v Derby?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Millwall v Derby was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.85 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Derby?
In their last 6 meetings, Millwall won 3, Derby won 0 and there were 3 draws, averaging 1.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Millwall and Derby?
Recent form — Millwall 1W 2D 2L; Derby 0W 3D 2L.

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