Southampton v Derby prediction

Championship · Sat, 21 Nov 2026 15:00 GMT

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

TACTIX’s free model pick for Southampton v Derby, Championship on Sat, 21 Nov 2026 15:00 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Southampton host Derby in the Championship on Saturday 21 November (kick-off 15:00 UK).

The key numbers

Both teams scored in 12 of Southampton’s last 15 results in all competitions (80%).

Southampton are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions. Derby are winless in their last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Nine of Southampton’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). At home, Southampton have six wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.38 points per game, scoring 2.63 and conceding 1.13. Southampton have scored 29 goals, the third-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Southampton have conceded 14 goals, the second-fewest of the 24 clubs.

Nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in nine of Derby’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). Away from home, Derby have one win, two draws and four defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.71 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 2.14. Derby have scored 11 goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Derby have conceded 29 goals, the second-most of the 24 clubs.

Southampton (seventh) and Derby (23rd) are 17 points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Southampton the stronger side, 537 rating points above Derby (Southampton 1794, Derby 1256, after at least 111 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Southampton are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Derby, every meeting checked. The most recent meeting, on 11 April 2026, finished Southampton 2–1 Derby.

Team news

Predicted Southampton XI (4-2-3-1): D. Peretz, K. Schlotterbeck, J. Bree, J. Stephens, R. Manning, J. Ward-Prowse, F. Azaz, K. Matsuki, L. Scienza, F. Downes, L. Dobbin — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Keven Schlotterbeck (4.1 per match over 12 appearances, two goals) and Finn Azaz (3.8 per match over 16 appearances, three goals and six assists) have been Southampton’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Southampton (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Keven Schlotterbeck averages 1.2 tackles per 90 over 1167 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances. Finn Azaz averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1474 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Derby XI (4-2-3-1): J. Widell Zetterström, R. Nyambe, D. Sanderson, R. Hedges, M. Johnston, B. Clark, S. Szmodics, D. Ozoh, A. Mowatt, R. Brewster, C. Morris — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Bobby Clark (4.0 per match over 15 appearances, three goals and two assists) and Carlton Morris (3.4 per match over 11 appearances, one goal and one assist) have been Derby’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Derby (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Bobby Clark averages 1.6 key passes per 90 over 1275 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. Carlton Morris averages 1.6 shots per 90 over 948 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sat, 21 Nov 2026 15:00 GMT · Championship
Head-to-head (last 4): Southampton 1 · draws 3 · Derby 0 · 4.25 goals/game
Recent form: Southampton 3W 2D 0L · Derby 0W 1D 4L

Southampton v Derby (Championship): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 0.75

Goals

against 0.88 / 2.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.38 / 5.25

Corners

against 4.88 / 4.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5 / 4.13

Shots on target

against 4.75 / 6.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.13 / 2.25

Cards

against 2.25 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 3 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 3 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Southampton for / against	Line	Derby for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.75 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.38 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.25 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.75 for · 16 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	13.38 for · 15.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.13 for · 6.5 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	8.13 for · 13.13 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11 for · 9 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.13 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.25 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5

Southampton

Southampton Goalkeeper

Southampton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Daniel Peretz	16	901446 min	563.5 /90	161 /90	00 /90

Southampton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Daniel Peretz n 8	90	4.1 8/7

Southampton Defensive

Southampton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
James Bree	16	881400 min	171.1 /90	161 /90	90.6 /90	442.8 /90	90.6 /90	20.1 /90
Ryan Manning	14	821146 min	70.5 /90	141.1 /90	30.2 /90	362.8 /90	110.9 /90	40.3 /90
K. Schlotterbeck	12	901077 min	141.2 /90	161.3 /90	151.3 /90	635.3 /90	60.5 /90	10.1 /90
J. Stephens	11	91996 min	70.6 /90	111 /90	151.4 /90	252.3 /90	10.1 /90	00 /90
Nathan Wood	7	90630 min	111.6 /90	50.7 /90	60.9 /90	365.1 /90	40.6 /90	20.3 /90
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Southampton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Daniel Peretz n 8	90	0 0/0	0.4 2/1	—
James Bree n 8	84.3	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0	—
Finn Azaz n 8	89.8	0.8 5/1	1.5 6/3	—
K. Matsuki n 8	72.6	1.4 6/2	1.7 6/3	—
Ryan Manning n 8	75	0.9 5/1	1.3 4/3	—
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Southampton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
James Bree n 8	84.3	1.1 5/3
Finn Azaz n 8	89.8	0.9 6/1
K. Matsuki n 8	72.6	1.5 3/3
Ryan Manning n 8	75	0.6 3/1
Leo Scienza n 8	70.4	1 5/1
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Southampton Attacking

Southampton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Cyle Larin	12	64765 min	80.9 /90	00 /90	313.6 /90	151.8 /90	70.8 /90	70.8 /90
L. Dobbin	8	67537 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	111.8 /90	40.7 /90	20.3 /90	61 /90
D. Mubama	6	42250 min	00 /90	00 /90	72.5 /90	10.4 /90	10.4 /90	20.7 /90
B. Brereton	1	6262 min	00 /90	00 /90	22.9 /90	00 /90	00 /90	11.5 /90
Cameron Archer	1	2121 min	00 /90	00 /90	14.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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Southampton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Daniel Peretz n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
James Bree n 8	84.3	0.7 4/1	0.3 2/0
Finn Azaz n 8	89.8	1.3 6/4	0.8 5/1
K. Matsuki n 8	72.6	2 7/4	1.1 5/2
Ryan Manning n 8	75	0.8 3/2	0.2 1/0
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Southampton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Southampton before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Daniel Peretz n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
James Bree n 8	84.3	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
Finn Azaz n 8	89.8	0.1 1/0	0.4 2/1
K. Matsuki n 8	72.6	0.6 4/0	0 0/0
Ryan Manning n 8	75	0 0/0	0.3 1/1
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Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström	11	90995 min	494.4 /90	161.4 /90	00 /90
J. Vickers	4	90360 min	92.3 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90

Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	5.1 7/7
J. Vickers n 8	89.5	2 6/3

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Sanderson	13	821061 min	131.1 /90	131.1 /90	110.9 /90	554.7 /90	121 /90	40.3 /90
S. Langås	10	91905 min	171.7 /90	60.6 /90	50.5 /90	414.1 /90	70.7 /90	40.4 /90
J. Ward	10	80800 min	161.8 /90	171.9 /90	20.2 /90	353.9 /90	50.6 /90	00 /90
C. Taylor	9	86774 min	161.9 /90	80.9 /90	80.9 /90	354.1 /90	101.2 /90	10.1 /90
M. Johnston	8	50396 min	81.8 /90	30.7 /90	20.5 /90	92 /90	40.9 /90	10.2 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.6 4/1	1.3 6/2	—
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0	—
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.8 5/1	0.3 2/0	—
R. Hedges n 8	72.4	0.6 4/0	1.2 4/3	—
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	2 6/4
S. Szmodics n 8	78	1.6 6/2
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	1.2 5/3
R. Hedges n 8	72.4	2.5 7/5
C. Morris n 8	84.4	0.8 5/1
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
C. Morris	11	86948 min	10.1 /90	10.1 /90	171.6 /90	60.6 /90	111 /90	50.5 /90
R. Brewster	10	39391 min	00 /90	00 /90	40.9 /90	10.2 /90	40.9 /90	20.5 /90
H. Meister	9	47426 min	00 /90	00 /90	102.1 /90	30.6 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90
L. Salvesen	7	33230 min	20.8 /90	00 /90	114.3 /90	52 /90	31.2 /90	20.8 /90
B. Clark	15	851275 min	30.2 /90	20.1 /90	201.4 /90	90.6 /90	231.6 /90	181.3 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	1.5 7/3	0.9 5/2
S. Szmodics n 8	78	2 6/5	0.9 4/2
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
R. Hedges n 8	72.4	0.8 3/2	0.5 3/0
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 3 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
B. Clark n 8	88.9	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
S. Szmodics n 8	78	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
D. Sanderson n 8	81.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Hedges n 8	72.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Widell Zetterström n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Southampton v Derby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

SouthamptonWDWWD

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1.8 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

DerbyLLDLL

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · 0.6 scored / 2.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 4

Southampton 1 · 3 draws · Derby 0 · 4.25 goals/game

2026-04-11 Southampton 2–1 Derby
2025-10-04 Derby 1–1 Southampton
2019-01-16 Southampton 4–4 Derby
2019-01-05 Derby 2–2 Southampton

League standing · 2026/27

Southampton#7 pos24 pts14 pl+15 GD

Derby#23 pos7 pts14 pl-18 GD

Goals per game

Southampton scored2.07

Derby scored0.79

Southampton conceded1

Derby conceded2.07

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Derby?: In their last 4 meetings, Southampton won 1, Derby won 0 and there were 3 draws, averaging 4.25 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Southampton and Derby?: Recent form — Southampton 3W 2D 0L; Derby 0W 1D 4L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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