This Matchweek

MillwallLincoln

Millwall v Lincoln result

Full-time · Millwall 2–2 Lincoln

Championship · · The Den

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Millwall · Lincoln

The model’s pre-match pick

Millwall 2–2 Lincoln — this Championship match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 2.00 at Bet365
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Millwall and Lincoln drew 2–2 at The Den in the Championship on Saturday 17 October. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Millwall out-shot Lincoln 18 to 9 and created the better chances, 1.87 xG to 0.75 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

Lincoln led 2–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Lincoln: Andrei Coubiș (1’) and Robert Street (33’, assisted by Sonny Bradley); Millwall: Kyrell Lisbie (63’) and Jake Cooper (82’). D. Elerewe (84’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Jake Cooper’s goal on 82 minutes.

What it changes

Millwall stay 11th after this result (11 league matches played). Millwall have scored 23 goals, the seventh-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Millwall have conceded 24 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Lincoln move up from 18th to 16th (11 league matches played). Lincoln have scored 14 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Lincoln have conceded 24 goals, the seventh-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Lincoln are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jake Cooper (Millwall) 8.9, Kyrell Lisbie (Millwall) 6.9 and Andrei Coubiș (Lincoln) 5.2 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Millwall next travel to West Brom on 7 November 2026.

Lincoln next travel to QPR on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Millwall: West Brom v Millwall, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Lincoln: QPR v Lincoln, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Millwall 2–2 Lincoln · Championship
  • Venue: The Den · London
  • Referee: Ruebyn Ricardo
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Millwall 1W 2D 2L · Lincoln 2W 0D 3L

Millwall 2–2 Lincoln (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 31 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 0.5
Goals
against 1.5 / 2 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
3.5 / 2.88
Corners
against 7.75 / 8.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.38 / 2.5
Shots on target
against 4.13 / 5.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.88 / 2.5
Cards
against 2.25 / 2.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 14 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 14 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameMillwall for / againstLineLincoln for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1.5 against n 8
2.5our book
0.5 for · 2 against n 8
Corners won
3.5 for · 7.75 against n 8
9.5standard
2.88 for · 8.25 against n 8
Shots
11.25 for · 16 against n 8
19.5standard
10.88 for · 17.63 against n 8
Shots on target
3.38 for · 4.13 against n 8
8.5standard
2.5 for · 5.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
13 for · 11.13 against n 8
21.5standard
12.25 for · 11.5 against n 8
Cards shown
1.88 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
2.5 for · 2.13 against n 8

Referee: Ruebyn Ricardo.

Millwall

Millwall Goalkeeper

Millwall — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
M. Crocombe690540 min142.3 /90132.2 /9000 /90
F. Marschall490360 min112.8 /9030.8 /9000 /90
L. Jensen290180 min21 /9000 /9000 /90
Millwall — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
M. Crocombe n 890
2.55/3
F. Marschall n 490
2.82/2
L. Jensen n 890
2.65/3

Millwall Defensive

Millwall — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Cooper12891072 min100.8 /90131.1 /90121 /90665.5 /90121 /9000 /90
C. Taylor1190990 min111 /90242.2 /90111 /90605.5 /9050.5 /9000 /90
Zak Norton Sturge1181887 min181.8 /90121.2 /9090.9 /90474.8 /90141.4 /9020.2 /90
J. Osei-Tutu867537 min81.3 /9050.8 /9010.2 /90274.5 /9040.7 /9000 /90
E. Baggott653317 min41.1 /9041.1 /9010.3 /90185.1 /9010.3 /9000 /90
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Millwall — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
J. Cooper n 889
1.46/4
0.84/2
D. Elerewe
C. Neghli n 884.5
0.43/0
0.53/1
R. Street
Jenson Metcalfe n 880.3
2.27/4
2.76/5
—
C. Taylor n 890
0.43/0
0.43/0
D. Elerewe
Zak Norton Sturge n 886.9
1.77/4
14/4
D. Elerewe
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Millwall — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
J. Cooper n 889
0.93/2
C. Neghli n 884.5
1.25/3
Jenson Metcalfe n 880.3
2.88/6
C. Taylor n 890
16/2
Zak Norton Sturge n 886.9
1.75/5
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Millwall Attacking

Millwall — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
L. Dykes986773 min40.5 /9010.1 /90161.9 /9070.8 /9080.9 /9020.2 /90
T. Arconte969619 min30.4 /9000 /90111.6 /9040.6 /9050.7 /9060.9 /90
Z. Lovelace635212 min00 /9020.8 /9010.4 /9000 /9020.8 /9010.4 /90
K. Lisbie566331 min00 /9000 /9061.6 /9020.5 /9030.8 /9030.8 /90
J. Coburn476304 min20.6 /9000 /9072.1 /9051.5 /9051.5 /9010.3 /90
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Millwall — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
J. Cooper n 889
0.42/1
0.11/0
C. Neghli n 884.5
1.27/2
0.85/1
Jenson Metcalfe n 880.3
0.74/1
0.11/0
C. Taylor n 890
1.46/3
0.54/0
Zak Norton Sturge n 886.9
0.54/0
00/0
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Millwall — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Millwall before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
J. Cooper n 889
00/0
00/0
C. Neghli n 884.5
0.43/0
0.11/0
Jenson Metcalfe n 880.3
00/0
0.11/0
C. Taylor n 890
0.32/0
0.11/0
Zak Norton Sturge n 886.9
00/0
0.11/0
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Lincoln

Lincoln Goalkeeper

Lincoln — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
G. Wickens1190995 min373.3 /90121.1 /9000 /90
J. Gauci290180 min63 /9010.5 /9000 /90
Lincoln — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
G. Wickens n 890
3.28/3

Lincoln Defensive

Lincoln — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
D. Elerewe12841012 min141.2 /90201.8 /9080.7 /90605.3 /90111 /9020.2 /90
R. Towler1177842 min91 /90151.6 /90111.2 /90353.7 /9050.5 /9020.2 /90
S. Bradley772504 min40.7 /9030.5 /9061.1 /90264.6 /9010.2 /9000 /90
Andrei Coubiș765454 min71.4 /9091.8 /9000 /90224.4 /9051 /9000 /90
C. Elder587433 min122.5 /9030.6 /9010.2 /90214.4 /9040.8 /9010.2 /90
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Lincoln — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
D. Elerewe n 880.9
0.74/1
0.83/2
Zak Norton Sturge
F. Draper n 864.3
5.17/5
2.16/4
—
R. Street n 851.4
1.86/2
1.54/2
C. Neghli
G. Wickens n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
C. McGrandles n 873.1
1.16/1
27/5
—
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Lincoln — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Elerewe n 880.9
1.36/3
F. Draper n 864.3
0.73/1
R. Street n 851.4
1.54/1
C. McGrandles n 873.1
2.35/5
R. Towler n 879.3
1.16/2
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Lincoln Attacking

Lincoln — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
F. Draper1262746 min20.2 /9010.1 /90131.6 /9060.7 /90101.2 /9020.2 /90
R. Street1251616 min10.1 /9000 /9091.3 /9020.3 /9060.9 /9010.1 /90
B. House1173801 min20.2 /9010.1 /90131.5 /9060.7 /9030.3 /9040.4 /90
C. Ogbene646274 min00 /9000 /9041.3 /9020.7 /9010.3 /9041.3 /90
I. Olaofe535177 min10.5 /9000 /9021 /9010.5 /9000 /9021 /90
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Lincoln — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
D. Elerewe n 880.9
0.86/0
0.11/0
F. Draper n 864.3
1.66/2
0.73/1
R. Street n 851.4
1.13/1
0.21/0
G. Wickens n 890
00/0
00/0
C. McGrandles n 873.1
0.64/0
0.32/0
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Lincoln — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lincoln before kick-off, to 14 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
D. Elerewe n 880.9
00/0
00/0
F. Draper n 864.3
0.42/0
00/0
R. Street n 851.4
00/0
00/0
G. Wickens n 890
00/0
00/0
C. McGrandles n 873.1
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
MillwallLincoln
70%Possession30%
1.87Expected goals (xG)0.75
18Shots9
6Shots on target3
5Shots off target4
7Blocked shots2
13Shots inside the box9
12Corners2
1Offsides6
14Fouls10
6Yellow cards4
0Red cards1
1Saves4
391Passes179

Millwall Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Cooper90102114Y7.8
Zak Norton Sturge90000000Y6.2
C. Neghli90001021Y6.2
D. Mazou-Sacko9000212206.6
L. Dykes9000302006.4
C. Taylor9000000206.7
K. Lisbie80106311Y7.6
Jenson Metcalfe7200000206
T. Crama72000002Y5.9
F. Marschall4500000005.3
L. Cundle4500110006.4
M. Crocombe4500000005.7
M. Sykes4500100106.1
R. Leonard18000011Y5.8
R. Esse1800200006.1
Z. Lovelace1000001006.5

Lincoln Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Ivan Varfolomeev9000001206
R. Street90101111Y7.3
Y. Konak9000000306.2
Andrei Coubiș90101112Y6.7
S. Bradley9001001006.8
G. Wickens9000000006.5
F. Draper89003111Y6.6
D. Elerewe84000000R5.6
A. Reach8000001006.2
D. Jefferies8000100106.1
R. Hackett6600300306.4
D. Oyegoke2400000006.3
C. Elder10000000Y5.9
R. Towler1000000006.1
M. Ladefoged100000000

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Millwall v Lincoln — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
MillwallLDDWL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
LincolnWWLLL
Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 0.6 scored / 2.2 conceded per game
League standing · 2026/27
Millwall#13 pos18 pts14 pl-1 GD
Lincoln#19 pos15 pts14 pl-10 GD
Goals per game
Millwall scored1.64
Lincoln scored1
Millwall conceded1.71
Lincoln conceded1.71

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Millwall v Lincoln?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Millwall v Lincoln was Over 2.5 goals (best price 2.00 at Bet365).
What is the recent form of Millwall and Lincoln?
Recent form — Millwall 1W 2D 2L; Lincoln 2W 0D 3L.

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