QPRDerby

QPR v Derby result

Full-time · QPR 4–1 Derby

Championship · · MATRADE Loftus Road

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: QPR · Derby · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

QPR 4–1 Derby — QPR won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick
Home or Away
Best price: 1.29 at William Hill
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.9% of 5118 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

QPR beat Derby 4–1 at MATRADE Loftus Road in the Championship on Wednesday 14 October. QPR are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions. Derby are winless in their last six matches in all competitions.

The goals

QPR led 3–0 at half-time. The goals — QPR: Alfie Lloyd (18’, assisted by Boy Kemper), Nicolas Madsen (22’ pen), Harvey Vale (45’) and Paul Smyth (68’, assisted by Nicolas Madsen); Derby: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen (90’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Alfie Lloyd’s goal on 18 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: QPR 1.52, Derby 0.86, from 9 shots to 15 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Matthew Corlett, England showed five yellow cards — against 4.4 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — QPR: Harvey Vale (57’) and Glen Kamara (60’); Derby: David Ozoh (24’), Samuel Szmodics (44’) and Henrik Meister (56’).

What it changes

QPR move up from sixth to fifth (10 league matches played). QPR have scored 15 goals, the 11th-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games, ranked per game). QPR have conceded nine goals, the second-fewest of the 24 clubs.

Derby move down from 22nd to 23rd (10 league matches played). Derby have scored nine goals, the fourth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games, ranked per game). Derby have conceded 19 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Nicolas Madsen (QPR) 10.9, Boy Kemper (QPR) 8.2 and Alfie Lloyd (QPR) 6.3 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, QPR or Derby (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.9% of the time in the last 90 days (3985 of 5118).

Next up

QPR next travel to Millwall on 21 November 2026.

Derby next travel to Southampton on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for QPR: Millwall v QPR, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Derby: Southampton v Derby, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: QPR 4–1 Derby · Championship
  • Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road · London
  • Referee: Matthew Corlett, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): QPR 3 · draws 0 · Derby 3 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: QPR 0W 4D 1L · Derby 0W 2D 3L

QPR 4–1 Derby (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 28 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 0.88
Goals
against 0.88 / 1.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
6.63 / 6
Corners
against 3.63 / 6 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5 / 3.63
Shots on target
against 3 / 5.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 2.25
Cards
against 1.75 / 2.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 10 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameQPR for / againstLineDerby for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 0.88 against n 8
2.75our book
0.88 for · 1.63 against n 8
Corners won
6.63 for · 3.63 against n 8
9.5standard
6 for · 6 against n 8
Shots
16.5 for · 10.75 against n 8
19.5standard
11.63 for · 15.25 against n 8
Shots on target
5 for · 3 against n 8
8.5standard
3.63 for · 5.5 against n 8
Fouls committed
8.25 for · 10.13 against n 8
21.5standard
12.63 for · 8.88 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 1.75 against n 8
3.5standard
2.25 for · 2.25 against n 8

Referee: Matthew Corlett, England.

QPR

QPR Goalkeeper

QPR — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
P. Charles990810 min222.4 /9060.7 /9010.1 /90
QPR — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for QPR before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
P. Charles n 890
2.14/3

QPR Defensive

QPR — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
J. Dunne885678 min60.8 /9081.1 /9010.1 /90334.4 /9030.4 /9000 /90
J. Clarke-Salter872577 min40.6 /9050.8 /9050.8 /90152.3 /9071.1 /9040.6 /90
A. Mbengue776533 min61 /90101.7 /9030.5 /90284.7 /9050.8 /9000 /90
K. Adamson758409 min102.2 /9061.3 /9030.7 /90204.4 /9051.1 /9010.2 /90
Dennis Cirkin743298 min123.6 /9072.1 /9041.2 /90257.6 /9041.2 /9000 /90
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QPR — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for QPR before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
R. Edwards n 890
0.43/0
0.43/0
D. Sanderson
P. Charles n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
J. Dunne n 884.8
0.43/0
0.11/0
D. Sanderson
R. Burrell n 874.4
0.92/2
1.14/2
—
J. Clarke-Salter n 872.1
1.16/1
0.21/0
—
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QPR — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for QPR before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
R. Edwards n 890
1.14/3
J. Dunne n 884.8
0.85/1
R. Burrell n 874.4
0.21/0
J. Clarke-Salter n 872.1
0.64/0
Glen Kamara n 860.9
1.76/2
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QPR Attacking

QPR — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
R. Burrell874595 min20.3 /9010.2 /90111.7 /9060.9 /90121.8 /9040.6 /90
A. Lloyd452209 min00 /9000 /9073 /9020.9 /9010.4 /9041.7 /90
R. Kone445179 min00 /9000 /9042 /9042 /9042 /9000 /90
L. Scarlett24692 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9022 /90
Rayan Jawad Kolli16969 min00 /9000 /9022.6 /9022.6 /9000 /9011.3 /90
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QPR — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for QPR before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
R. Edwards n 890
15/3
0.11/0
P. Charles n 890
00/0
00/0
J. Dunne n 884.8
0.96/1
0.32/0
R. Burrell n 874.4
1.76/3
0.94/2
J. Clarke-Salter n 872.1
00/0
00/0
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QPR — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for QPR before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
R. Edwards n 890
00/0
0.11/0
P. Charles n 890
00/0
00/0
J. Dunne n 884.8
0.11/0
00/0
R. Burrell n 874.4
0.31/1
0.21/0
J. Clarke-Salter n 872.1
00/0
00/0
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Derby

Derby Goalkeeper

Derby — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Widell Zetterström891725 min303.7 /90151.9 /9000 /90
J. Vickers290180 min31.5 /9021 /9000 /90
Derby — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Widell Zetterström n 890.6
3.77/5
J. Vickers n 889.5
2.36/2

Derby Defensive

Derby — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
S. Langås1091905 min171.7 /9060.6 /9050.5 /90414.1 /9070.7 /9040.4 /90
C. Taylor986774 min161.9 /9080.9 /9080.9 /90354.1 /90101.2 /9010.1 /90
D. Sanderson981725 min81 /90101.2 /9091.1 /90384.7 /9091.1 /9020.2 /90
J. Ward777539 min101.7 /9091.5 /9020.3 /90233.8 /9030.5 /9000 /90
M. Johnston540199 min31.4 /9000 /9010.5 /9031.4 /9031.4 /9010.5 /90
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Derby — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
S. Langås n 890
0.53/1
0.43/0
—
B. Clark n 880.4
0.62/2
1.34/3
—
C. Taylor n 888.9
1.35/4
0.85/1
—
D. Sanderson n 884.4
1.16/1
0.53/1
J. Dunne
S. Szmodics n 877.1
0.11/0
0.96/0
—
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Derby — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
S. Langås n 890
1.66/4
B. Clark n 880.4
1.85/3
C. Taylor n 888.9
1.66/2
D. Sanderson n 884.4
1.15/2
S. Szmodics n 877.1
0.94/1
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Derby Attacking

Derby — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
C. Morris690537 min10.2 /9010.2 /9081.3 /9030.5 /9050.8 /9010.2 /90
L. Salvesen634203 min10.4 /9000 /9073.1 /9041.8 /9020.9 /9020.9 /90
R. Brewster631185 min00 /9000 /9010.5 /9000 /9010.5 /9000 /90
H. Meister440161 min00 /9000 /9031.7 /9010.6 /9000 /9010.6 /90
B. Clark1083828 min20.2 /9020.2 /90131.4 /9050.5 /90151.6 /90161.7 /90
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Derby — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Langås n 890
0.32/0
00/0
B. Clark n 880.4
1.56/2
0.74/1
C. Taylor n 888.9
00/0
00/0
D. Sanderson n 884.4
0.32/0
00/0
S. Szmodics n 877.1
2.26/5
1.25/3
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Derby — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Derby before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
S. Langås n 890
00/0
00/0
B. Clark n 880.4
0.32/0
0.32/0
C. Taylor n 888.9
00/0
00/0
D. Sanderson n 884.4
00/0
00/0
S. Szmodics n 877.1
0.43/0
0.11/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
QPRDerby
48%Possession52%
1.52Expected goals (xG)0.86
9Shots15
7Shots on target6
2Shots off target5
0Blocked shots4
6Shots inside the box12
1Corners3
0Offsides2
10Fouls10
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
5Saves3
439Passes464
82%Pass accuracy79%

QPR Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
K. Adamson9000000206.9
P. Charles9000000007.2
N. Madsen9011221307.9
Glen Kamara90000010Y7
R. Edwards9000001007.7
J. Dunne9000000107.5
P. Smyth7710210008
B. Kemper7201002207.9
A. Lloyd6210221107.7
Rayan Jawad Kolli6200110106.5
H. Vale62101111Y7.3
J. Varane sub2800000106.9
K. Poku sub2800100106.5
R. Kone sub2800000006.2
A. Mbengue sub1300000006.7
L. Scarlett sub1300000006.2

Derby Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Ward9000002205.9
D. Sanderson9000000006.3
A. Mowatt9000110006.9
R. Hedges9000003106.3
B. Clark9000320106.7
J. Vickers9000000005.3
S. Szmodics70000001Y6.3
C. Morris6300002107
D. Ozoh45001101Y6.2
M. Fuseini4500001006.2
S. Langås1200000006.9
R. Nyambe sub7800000506.2
H. Meister sub45002121Y6.9
L. Travis sub4500000106.7
L. Salvesen sub2710411007.7
F. Bilbija sub2000000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind QPR v Derby — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
QPRLDDDD
Last 5: 0W 4D 1L · 0.8 scored / 1 conceded per game
DerbyLLLDD
Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 0.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
QPR 3 · 0 draws · Derby 3 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2026-04-25 QPR 2–3 Derby
  • 2025-10-25 Derby 1–0 QPR
  • 2025-02-14 QPR 4–0 Derby
  • 2024-10-05 Derby 2–0 QPR
  • 2022-04-18 QPR 1–0 Derby
  • 2021-11-29 Derby 1–2 QPR
League standing · 2026/27
QPR#8 pos24 pts15 pl+6 GD
Derby#23 pos10 pts15 pl-16 GD
Goals per game
QPR scored1.6
Derby scored0.93
QPR conceded1.2
Derby conceded2

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for QPR v Derby?
TACTIX’s free model pick for QPR v Derby was Home or Away (best price 1.29 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Derby?
In their last 6 meetings, QPR won 3, Derby won 3 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of QPR and Derby?
Recent form — QPR 0W 4D 1L; Derby 0W 2D 3L.

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