VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05 prediction

DFB Pokal · · Vonovia Ruhrstadion

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: VfL Bochum · FSV Mainz 05 · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05, DFB Pokal on Tue, 27 Oct 2026 17:00 GMT.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.9% of 634 landed (95% range 62.2–69.5%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

VfL Bochum host FSV Mainz 05 in the DFB Pokal on Tuesday 27 October (kick-off 17:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

FSV Mainz 05 have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions. FSV Mainz 05 are unbeaten in the last six meetings with VfL Bochum, every meeting checked. VfL Bochum are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Six of VfL Bochum’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in nine of VfL Bochum’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, VfL Bochum have two wins, two draws and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.14 points per game, scoring 1.14 and conceding 1.00.

Nine of FSV Mainz 05’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in seven of FSV Mainz 05’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). Away from home, FSV Mainz 05 have six wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 2.38 points per game, scoring 3.00 and conceding 1.13.

TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have FSV Mainz 05 the stronger side, 7 rating points above VfL Bochum (FSV Mainz 05 1795, VfL Bochum 1788, after at least 21 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 10 May 2025, finished VfL Bochum 1–4 FSV Mainz 05.

Team news

By TACTIX Impact, K. Miyoshi (3.6 per match over nine appearances, two goals and one assist) and P. Hofmann (3.3 per match over nine appearances, three goals) have been VfL Bochum’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for VfL Bochum (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), K. Miyoshi averages 1.4 key passes per 90 over 767 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last nine appearances. P. Hofmann averages 2.2 shots per 90 over 818 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last nine appearances.

By TACTIX Impact, Phillip Tietz (6.9 per match over seven appearances, nine goals) and Nadiem Amiri (5.4 per match over seven appearances, two goals and three assists) have been FSV Mainz 05’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for FSV Mainz 05 (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Phillip Tietz averages 3.5 shots per 90 over 614 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last seven appearances. Nadiem Amiri averages 3.3 key passes per 90 over 761 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · DFB Pokal · Vonovia Ruhrstadion
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): VfL Bochum 0 · draws 1 · FSV Mainz 05 5 · 3.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: VfL Bochum 1W 1D 3L · FSV Mainz 05 3W 0D 2L

VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05 (DFB Pokal): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 20 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.88 / 3.13
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.25 / 5.13
Corners
against 5.5 / 4.13 · 5 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.13 / 7.13
Shots on target
against 3.88 / 3.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
3.13 / 2
Cards
against 2 / 1.63 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameVfL Bochum for / againstLineFSV Mainz 05 for / against
Goals scored
0.88 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.5standard
3.13 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
5.25 for · 5.5 against n 8
9.5standard
5.13 for · 4.13 against n 8
Shots
14.5 for · 14.75 against n 8
19.5standard
18.88 for · 12.5 against n 8
Shots on target
4.13 for · 3.88 against n 8
8.5standard
7.13 for · 3.75 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.75 for · 10.13 against n 8
21.5standard
13.13 for · 10.13 against n 8
Cards shown
3.13 for · 2 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 1.63 against n 8
VfL Bochum
VfL Bochum — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Alessandro Crimaldi n 528.2
3.23/2
1.32/0
—
J. Mbom n 844.8
2.57/2
00/0
—
O. Olsen n 874.3
2.37/2
1.46/3
—
P. Hofmann n 890.6
1.77/4
0.76/0
—
C. Rasmussen n 864.1
1.65/2
2.15/5
—
VfL Bochum — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Jarne Steuckers n 831.1
2.25/1
0.72/0
P. Hofmann n 890.6
2.18/5
15/3
K. Miyoshi n 886.4
26/4
0.93/2
C. Rasmussen n 864.1
1.66/1
0.94/1
M. Pannewig n 874.4
1.46/1
0.32/0
VfL Bochum — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
P. Hofmann n 890.6
0.43/0
00/0
K. Miyoshi n 886.4
0.31/1
0.11/0
Tom Meyer n 864.5
0.21/0
0.21/0
E. Çokaj n 867.5
00/0
0.21/0
C. Rasmussen n 864.1
0.21/0
00/0
VfL Bochum — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
O. Olsen n 874.3
2.68/3
Alessandro Crimaldi n 528.2
2.62/1
Tom Meyer n 864.5
2.46/5
C. Patino n 832.4
2.45/2
J. Mbom n 844.8
1.85/2
VfL Bochum — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
T. Horn n 890.6
2.75/5
FSV Mainz 05
FSV Mainz 05 — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
P. Tietz n 887.3
2.36/5
1.25/2
—
K. Potulski n 869.8
2.35/4
0.64/0
—
L. Maloney n 87.1
1.61/0
00/0
—
F. Gruber n 885
1.55/3
0.11/0
—
E. Martel n 868.6
1.55/3
0.84/1
—
FSV Mainz 05 — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
P. Tietz n 887.3
3.48/8
1.98/5
R. Königsdörffer n 831.9
3.25/3
1.13/0
S. Becker n 872.3
2.66/5
25/5
B. Hollerbach n 848.4
2.66/2
1.23/2
W. Bøving n 822.8
2.54/1
0.51/0
FSV Mainz 05 — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
P. Tietz n 887.3
1.36/2
0.11/0
S. Becker n 872.3
0.53/0
0.52/1
A. Caci n 867.1
0.31/1
0.53/0
N. Amiri n 887.5
0.31/1
0.42/1
B. Hollerbach n 848.4
0.52/0
0.21/0
FSV Mainz 05 — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
O. Ruoppi n 852.6
2.64/4
P. Mwene n 888
2.48/5
A. Caci n 867.1
2.25/3
S. Posch n 889.8
2.17/4
B. Hollerbach n 848.4
2.16/1
FSV Mainz 05 — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Schwolow n 890
2.96/4
R. Zentner n 881.8
2.96/4

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05 — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
VfL BochumWDLLL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
FSV Mainz 05WLWLW
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 2.8 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
VfL Bochum 0 · 1 draw · FSV Mainz 05 5 · 3.83 goals/game
  • 2025-05-10 VfL Bochum 1–4 FSV Mainz 05
  • 2025-01-11 FSV Mainz 05 2–0 VfL Bochum
  • 2024-03-16 FSV Mainz 05 2–0 Vfl Bochum
  • 2023-10-27 Vfl Bochum 2–2 FSV Mainz 05
  • 2023-01-28 FSV Mainz 05 5–2 Vfl Bochum
  • 2022-08-06 Vfl Bochum 1–2 FSV Mainz 05
Goals per game
VfL Bochum scored0.8
FSV Mainz 05 scored2.8
VfL Bochum conceded1.4
FSV Mainz 05 conceded2

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05?
TACTIX’s free model pick for VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05 is Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and FSV Mainz 05?
In their last 6 meetings, VfL Bochum won 0, FSV Mainz 05 won 5 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of VfL Bochum and FSV Mainz 05?
Recent form — VfL Bochum 1W 1D 3L; FSV Mainz 05 3W 0D 2L.

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