Argentina v Costa Rica prediction

Friendlies · Tue, 17 Nov 2026 21:00 GMT · Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes

Updated 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Argentina · Costa Rica

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home win the free pick for Argentina v Costa Rica, Friendlies on Tue, 17 Nov 2026 21:00 GMT.

Free pick

Home win

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 80.1% of 292 landed (95% range 75.2–84.3%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Argentina host Costa Rica in Friendlies on Tuesday 17 November (kick-off 21:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Argentina to win, a Bronze-tier call.

Form and the table

Seven of Argentina’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in six of Argentina’s last 15 results in all competitions (40%). At home, Argentina have nine wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 10 home matches in all competitions — 2.80 points per game, scoring 2.30 and conceding 0.60.

Eight of Costa Rica’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in eight of Costa Rica’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Costa Rica have no wins, five draws and three defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.63 points per game, scoring 0.38 and conceding 1.13.

TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Argentina the stronger side, 787 rating points above Costa Rica (Argentina 2153, Costa Rica 1366, after at least 42 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 27 March 2024, finished Argentina 3–1 Costa Rica.

Team news

Predicted Argentina XI (4-4-2): E. Martínez, C. Romero, N. Tagliafico, L. Martínez, N. Molina, A. Mac Allister, E. Fernández, L. Paredes, R. de Paul, L. Messi, J. Alvarez — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, L. Messi (8.3 per match over 12 appearances, 11 goals and four assists) and N. Paz (4.6 per match over seven appearances, three goals and one assist) have been Argentina’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Argentina (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), L. Messi averages 4.0 shots per 90 over 3857 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances. N. Paz averages 1.9 key passes per 90 over 1417 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Costa Rica XI (4-1-4-1): K. Navas, J. Vargas, F. Calvo, K. Waston, H. Quirós, J. Alcócer, A. Murillo, O. Galo, K. Vargas, C. Borges, M. Ugalde — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, K. Waston (3.9 per match over four appearances, one assist) and J. Alcócer (3.5 per match over eight appearances, one assist) have been Costa Rica’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Costa Rica (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), K. Waston averages 1.0 tackles per 90 over 360 minutes. J. Alcócer averages 1.2 key passes per 90 over 1082 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Tue, 17 Nov 2026 21:00 GMT · Friendlies · Estadio Mario Alberto Kempes
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 1): Argentina 1 · draws 0 · Costa Rica 0 · 4 goals/game
Recent form: Argentina 4W 0D 1L · Costa Rica 1W 3D 1L

Argentina v Costa Rica (Friendlies): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 11 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 1.25

Goals

against 0.75 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.2 / 4.83

Corners

against 1.8 / 2.67 · 0 of the last 2 over 9.5

over 5 matches

5.4 / 4.5

Shots on target

against 1.2 / 1.67 · 1 of the last 2 over 8.5

over 5 matches

1 / 1.83

Cards

against 2 / 2 · 2 of the last 2 over 3.5

over 5 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 19 July 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 19 July 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Argentina for / against	Line	Costa Rica for / against
Goals scored	1.88 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.25 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.2 for · 1.8 against n 5 Last 5	9.5standard	4.83 for · 2.67 against n 6 Last 5
Shots	13.6 for · 5.6 against n 5 Last 5	19.5standard	12 for · 8.83 against n 6 Last 5
Shots on target	5.4 for · 1.2 against n 5 Last 5	8.5standard	4.5 for · 1.67 against n 6 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.2 for · 11.2 against n 5 Last 5	21.5standard	12.33 for · 12.33 against n 6 Last 5
Cards shown	1 for · 2 against n 5 Last 5	3.5standard	1.83 for · 2 against n 6 Last 5

Argentina

Argentina Goalkeeper

Argentina — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
E. Martínez	7	90630 min	50.7 /90	50.7 /90	00 /90

Argentina — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Argentina before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
E. Martínez n 8	90	1 2/2

Argentina Defensive

Argentina — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Nahuel Molina	6	64383 min	92.1 /90	51.2 /90	00 /90	122.8 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
N. Tagliafico	5	83417 min	40.9 /90	30.6 /90	10.2 /90	153.2 /90	51.1 /90	10.2 /90
Cristian Romero	5	81406 min	112.4 /90	92 /90	20.4 /90	245.3 /90	81.8 /90	20.4 /90
N. Otamendi	5	52262 min	10.3 /90	72.4 /90	10.3 /90	103.4 /90	41.4 /90	00 /90
Lisandro Martínez	4	86342 min	71.8 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90	153.9 /90	41.1 /90	10.3 /90
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Argentina — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Argentina before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
E. Martínez n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
Julián Alvarez n 8	62	1.1 4/1	0.9 4/1	—
A. Mac Allister n 8	78.5	1 5/2	1.9 8/3	—
L. Messi n 8	81.3	0.3 2/0	2.4 8/5	—
R. de Paul n 8	74.3	0.3 2/0	1.5 5/2	—
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Argentina — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Argentina before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Julián Alvarez n 8	62	0.7 3/1
A. Mac Allister n 8	78.5	3 8/6
L. Messi n 8	81.3	1 5/2
R. de Paul n 8	74.3	1.4 6/2
Nahuel Molina n 8	69.5	2.1 7/4
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Argentina Attacking

Argentina — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Julián Alvarez	7	60423 min	00 /90	10.2 /90	81.7 /90	51.1 /90	51.1 /90	40.9 /90
L. Messi	6	78470 min	91.7 /90	30.6 /90	234.4 /90	152.9 /90	214 /90	203.8 /90
Lautaro Martínez	6	47283 min	20.6 /90	10.3 /90	92.9 /90	31 /90	20.6 /90	00 /90
N. González	6	38227 min	00 /90	20.8 /90	31.2 /90	20.8 /90	52 /90	20.8 /90
Franco Mastantuono	2	4691 min	00 /90	00 /90	11 /90	00 /90	00 /90	22 /90
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Argentina — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Argentina before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
E. Martínez n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Julián Alvarez n 8	62	1.8 6/3	1.1 6/0
A. Mac Allister n 8	78.5	1.1 4/4	0.6 4/0
L. Messi n 8	81.3	3.6 7/6	2.1 5/4
R. de Paul n 8	74.3	0.6 3/1	0.2 1/0
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Argentina — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Argentina before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
E. Martínez n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Julián Alvarez n 8	62	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
A. Mac Allister n 8	78.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Messi n 8	81.3	1.2 5/3	0.4 2/1
R. de Paul n 8	74.3	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
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Costa Rica

Costa Rica Goalkeeper

Costa Rica — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
K. Navas	6	81485 min	71.3 /90	30.6 /90	00 /90

Costa Rica — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Costa Rica before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
K. Navas n 8	81.8	2.3 4/2

Costa Rica Defensive

Costa Rica — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Vargas	6	81485 min	40.7 /90	30.6 /90	40.7 /90	203.7 /90	71.3 /90	00 /90
F. Calvo	5	90450 min	61.2 /90	102 /90	10.2 /90	224.4 /90	30.6 /90	20.4 /90
K. Waston	4	90360 min	41 /90	41 /90	30.8 /90	317.8 /90	41 /90	10.3 /90
A. Gamboa	4	72287 min	92.8 /90	10.3 /90	20.6 /90	185.6 /90	41.3 /90	20.6 /90
H. Quirós	4	68273 min	72.3 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	113.6 /90	41.3 /90	10.3 /90
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Costa Rica — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Costa Rica before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Vargas n 8	83.1	0.9 3/2	0.1 1/0	—
K. Navas n 8	81.8	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
J. Alcócer n 6	77	1.8 4/3	1.4 4/2	—
M. Ugalde n 7	62.9	2.5 6/3	2.9 5/3	—
F. Calvo n 8	90	1 6/2	0.9 5/1	—
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Costa Rica — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Costa Rica before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Vargas n 8	83.1	0.5 4/0
J. Alcócer n 6	77	1.2 3/3
M. Ugalde n 7	62.9	1 4/1
F. Calvo n 8	90	1.1 7/2
A. Martínez n 8	65.4	1.2 3/3
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Costa Rica Attacking

Costa Rica — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
M. Ugalde	6	63379 min	10.2 /90	20.5 /90	81.9 /90	51.2 /90	40.9 /90	51.2 /90
A. Martínez	5	70349 min	30.8 /90	00 /90	102.6 /90	92.3 /90	30.8 /90	00 /90
C. Mora	4	49196 min	00 /90	00 /90	41.8 /90	10.5 /90	20.9 /90	20.9 /90
Á. Zamora	3	3193 min	00 /90	00 /90	11 /90	00 /90	32.9 /90	00 /90
W. Madrigal	2	4080 min	00 /90	00 /90	22.3 /90	22.3 /90	11.1 /90	00 /90
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Costa Rica — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Costa Rica before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Vargas n 8	83.1	0.5 4/0	0.3 2/0
K. Navas n 8	81.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Alcócer n 6	77	0.8 3/1	0.4 2/0
M. Ugalde n 7	62.9	1.6 4/3	1 3/2
F. Calvo n 8	90	1.1 5/4	0.1 1/0
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Costa Rica — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Costa Rica before kick-off, to 19 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Vargas n 8	83.1	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
K. Navas n 8	81.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Alcócer n 6	77	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Ugalde n 7	62.9	0.2 1/0	0.4 2/0
F. Calvo n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Argentina v Costa Rica — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

ArgentinaWWWWL

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Costa RicaDDWLD

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 1.4 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 1

Argentina 1 · 0 draws · Costa Rica 0 · 4 goals/game

2024-03-27 Argentina 3–1 Costa Rica

Goals per game

Argentina scored2.2

Costa Rica scored1.4

Argentina conceded1.4

Costa Rica conceded1

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Expected goals (xG)

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Win probability & value

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Argentina v Costa Rica?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Argentina v Costa Rica is Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Argentina and Costa Rica?: In their last 1 meetings, Argentina won 1, Costa Rica won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 4 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Argentina and Costa Rica?: Recent form — Argentina 4W 0D 1L; Costa Rica 1W 3D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Nov 2026, 00:58 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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