Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka prediction

J1 League · · Best Denki Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Avispa Fukuoka · Gamba Osaka · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka, J1 League on Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00 BST.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.3% of 4315 landed (95% range 76–78.5%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Avispa Fukuoka host Gamba Osaka in the J1 League on Wednesday 21 October (kick-off 11:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Avispa Fukuoka or Gamba Osaka (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Gamba Osaka are unbeaten in their last eight matches. Gamba Osaka have scored in eight consecutive matches.

Form and the table

Six of Avispa Fukuoka’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in 10 of Avispa Fukuoka’s last 15 results (67%). At home, Avispa Fukuoka have one win, five draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches — 1.14 points per game, scoring 1.29 and conceding 1.29. Avispa Fukuoka have scored 11 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Avispa Fukuoka have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Nine of Gamba Osaka’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in 11 of Gamba Osaka’s last 15 results (73%). Away from home, Gamba Osaka have five wins, three draws and one defeat in their last 9 away matches — 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.78 and conceding 1.11. Gamba Osaka have scored eight goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Gamba Osaka have conceded 16 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Avispa Fukuoka (17th) and Gamba Osaka (18th) are one point apart, 2027 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Gamba Osaka the stronger side, 129 rating points above Avispa Fukuoka (Gamba Osaka 1581, Avispa Fukuoka 1452, after at least 202 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Avispa Fukuoka are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Gamba Osaka. The most recent meeting, on 22 April 2026, finished Gamba Osaka 1–2 Avispa Fukuoka.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The numbers

  • Kick-off: · J1 League · Best Denki Stadium
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Avispa Fukuoka 3 · draws 2 · Gamba Osaka 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Avispa Fukuoka 1W 3D 1L · Gamba Osaka 4W 1D 0L

As of 17 October 2026, TACTIX’s model — calibration published live, losing picks included — covers Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka across 246 markets; the key numbers are on this page. See the live track record →

Key stats

1.13 / 2.25
Goals
against 1.38 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.75 / 3.33
Corners
against 4.63 / 5.17 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 6 matches
3.63 / 5.17
Shots on target
against 2.63 / 3.5 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 6 matches
2.13 / 1.83
Cards
against 1.13 / 1 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 6 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameAvispa Fukuoka for / againstLineGamba Osaka for / against
Goals scored
1.13 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.5standard
2.25 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
4.75 for · 4.63 against n 8
9.5standard
3.33 for · 5.17 against n 6
Shots
11 for · 9.63 against n 8
19.5standard
13.33 for · 12 against n 6
Shots on target
3.63 for · 2.63 against n 8
8.5standard
5.17 for · 3.5 against n 6
Fouls committed
10.75 for · 9.5 against n 8
21.5standard
11 for · 10.5 against n 6
Cards shown
2.13 for · 1.13 against n 8
3.5standard
1.83 for · 1 against n 6
Avispa Fukuoka
Avispa Fukuoka — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Abdel Hanan Sani Brown n 818.4
3.14/1
1.83/0
—
Keiya Shiihashi n 858.3
2.16/4
13/2
—
Daiki Miya n 842.4
2.15/2
00/0
—
Nara Tatsuki n 878
1.77/3
0.62/1
—
Kohei Okuno n 840.4
1.74/2
1.12/2
—
Avispa Fukuoka — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
S. Sato n 828.4
3.24/3
0.82/0
Abdel Hanan Sani Brown n 818.4
2.44/0
0.61/0
Shosei Usui n 881
1.87/5
15/2
Tomoya Miki n 884.1
1.27/2
0.75/0
Shintaro Nago n 869
1.15/2
0.32/0
Avispa Fukuoka — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Shosei Usui n 881
0.64/0
00/0
Yu Hashimoto n 864.4
0.32/0
0.32/0
Abdel Hanan Sani Brown n 818.4
0.61/0
00/0
Tomoya Miki n 884.1
0.11/0
0.32/0
K. Maeda n 459.8
0.41/0
00/0
Avispa Fukuoka — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
K. Maeda n 459.8
3.43/2
Tomoya Miki n 884.1
2.38/6
Maejima Yota n 884
1.68/3
Nara Tatsuki n 878
1.65/3
Keiya Shiihashi n 858.3
1.55/2
Avispa Fukuoka — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Kazuki Fujita n 890
12/1
Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
G. Nawata n 838.1
2.75/2
1.23/1
—
Issam Jebali n 868.5
2.56/6
14/2
—
Eli Adams n 866
2.46/5
2.77/4
—
Y. Toshida n 368.3
2.22/2
00/0
—
Ryotaro Meshino n 851.4
1.86/2
1.55/2
—
Gamba Osaka — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Y. Toshida n 368.3
4.42/2
1.32/1
Issam Jebali n 868.5
3.18/5
14/1
Deniz Hümmet n 860.6
2.87/5
26/3
Eli Adams n 866
2.65/4
1.95/4
Harumi Minamino n 850.9
2.46/3
1.34/2
Gamba Osaka — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Eli Adams n 866
0.94/1
0.52/1
Y. Toshida n 368.3
0.92/0
00/0
Harumi Minamino n 850.9
0.93/1
00/0
G. Nawata n 838.1
0.61/1
0.31/0
Issam Jebali n 868.5
0.32/0
0.32/0
Gamba Osaka — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
G. Nawata n 838.1
3.24/4
Shuto Abe n 872.8
2.67/5
Rin Mito n 870.8
2.47/3
Takashi Usami n 848.9
2.13/2
Takeru Kishimoto n 886.3
26/5
Gamba Osaka — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Ichimori n 890
3.46/6

The day’s free picks, by email

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Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
Avispa FukuokaDDLDW
Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 1.2 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Gamba OsakaWWWWD
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.8 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Avispa Fukuoka 3 · 2 draws · Gamba Osaka 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2026-04-22 Gamba Osaka 1–2 Avispa Fukuoka
  • 2026-03-21 Avispa Fukuoka 2–2 Gamba Osaka
  • 2025-11-30 Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Gamba Osaka
  • 2025-02-22 Gamba Osaka 2–1 Avispa Fukuoka
  • 2024-08-24 Gamba Osaka 2–2 Avispa Fukuoka
  • 2024-05-03 Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Gamba Osaka
League standing · 2027
Last recorded position — not updated during the season.
Avispa Fukuoka#17 pos7 pts9 pl-2 GD
Gamba Osaka#18 pos6 pts9 pl-8 GD
Goals per game
Avispa Fukuoka scored1.22
Gamba Osaka scored0.89
Avispa Fukuoka conceded1.44
Gamba Osaka conceded1.78

See the full prediction

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Frequently asked questions

Who is predicted to win Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Avispa Fukuoka and Gamba Osaka?
In their last 6 meetings, Avispa Fukuoka won 3, Gamba Osaka won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Avispa Fukuoka and Gamba Osaka?
Recent form — Avispa Fukuoka 1W 3D 1L; Gamba Osaka 4W 1D 0L.

Today’s boards

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