Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka result

Full-time · Machida Zelvia 3–1 Gamba Osaka

J1 League · Wed, 20 Aug 2025 11:00 BST · Machida GION Stadium

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Machida Zelvia · Gamba Osaka

The model’s pre-match pick

Machida Zelvia 3–1 Gamba Osaka — Machida Zelvia won this J1 League match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.6% of 171 landed (95% range 45.2–60%); it had given them 77.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Machida Zelvia beat Gamba Osaka 3–1 at Machida GION Stadium in the J1 League on Wednesday 20 August. Machida Zelvia have won their last eight matches in all competitions. Gamba Osaka have lost their last three matches in all competitions.

The goals

Machida Zelvia led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Machida Zelvia: Gen Shoji (17’, assisted by Sang-Ho Na), Kotaro Hayashi (78’) and T. Nishimura (90’ pen); Gamba Osaka: Deniz Hümmet (61’, assisted by Welton).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Kotaro Hayashi’s goal on 78 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Machida Zelvia 2.76, Gamba Osaka 1.65, from 12 shots to 17 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Iván Barton, El Salvador showed one yellow card — against 3.5 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Machida Zelvia: Shota Fujio (46’).

What it changes

Machida Zelvia have scored in eight consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, T. Nishimura (Machida Zelvia) 7.8, Gen Shoji (Machida Zelvia) 7.2 and Deniz Hümmet (Gamba Osaka) 6.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Machida Zelvia next travel to Shimizu S-pulse on 21 October 2026.

Gamba Osaka next travel to Avispa Fukuoka on 21 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Machida Zelvia: Shimizu S-pulse v Machida Zelvia, Wednesday 21 October — the preview. Next for Gamba Osaka: Avispa Fukuoka v Gamba Osaka, Wednesday 21 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Machida Zelvia 3–1 Gamba Osaka · J1 League
Venue: Machida GION Stadium · Machida
Referee: Iván Barton, El Salvador
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 3): Machida Zelvia 2 · draws 1 · Gamba Osaka 0 · 2.33 goals/game
Recent form: Machida Zelvia 5W 0D 0L · Gamba Osaka 2W 0D 3L

Machida Zelvia 3–1 Gamba Osaka (J1 League): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.13 / 0.75

Goals

against 0.63 / 1.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.88 / 6.38

Corners

against 3.38 / 3.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.25 / 3.38

Shots on target

against 3.25 / 5 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

0.88 / 1.88

Cards

against 0.5 / 0.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 16 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Machida Zelvia for / against	Line	Gamba Osaka for / against
Goals scored	2.13 for · 0.63 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.75 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.88 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	6.38 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	14.13 for · 12 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	14.25 for · 12.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.25 for · 3.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.38 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.63 for · 7.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10 for · 10.25 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	0.88 for · 0.5 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.88 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5

Machida Zelvia

Machida Zelvia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
K. Kuwayama n 8	15.3	3.7 4/1	0 0/0	—
Shota Fujio n 8	62.6	2.7 6/4	0.7 3/1	Deniz Hümmet
Mitchell Duke n 8	25.4	2.7 4/2	0.9 2/0	—
Kotaro Hayashi n 8	85.6	2 7/3	0.1 1/0	—
Y. Soma n 8	84.6	1.7 7/5	1.3 7/2	—

Machida Zelvia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Y. Soma n 8	84.6	2.3 7/4	1.6 6/4
Se-hun Oh n 8	46.1	2 6/2	0.7 3/0
Sang-Ho Na n 8	30.6	1.8 4/1	0.7 2/0
Mitchell Duke n 8	25.4	1.8 4/0	0.9 2/0
T. Numata n 8	19.1	1.8 3/0	1.2 2/0

Machida Zelvia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Sang-Ho Na n 8	30.6	0.7 2/0	0.4 1/0
Y. Soma n 8	84.6	0.7 4/1	0.1 1/0
T. Numata n 8	19.1	0.6 1/0	0 0/0
T. Nishimura n 8	84	0.1 1/0	0.4 3/0
Shota Fujio n 8	62.6	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0

Machida Zelvia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Neta Lavi n 8	66.3	3.1 8/5
Kotaro Hayashi n 8	85.6	2.6 8/7
Ryuho Kikuchi n 8	66.3	2.5 4/3
Ibrahim Drešević n 8	52.3	2.2 6/3
Ryohei Shirasaki n 8	33	2 3/3

Machida Zelvia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Kosei Tani n 8	90	2.8 6/3

Gamba Osaka

Gamba Osaka — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
K. Okunuki n 8	50.3	2.9 6/3	0.2 1/0	—
Issam Jebali n 8	33.5	2.4 4/2	1 3/0	—
Deniz Hümmet n 8	71.4	2 7/4	1.1 4/2	Shota Fujio
Shuto Abe n 8	75.6	1.8 6/4	1.2 4/2	—
Juan Alano n 8	31	1.8 5/0	1.1 2/1	—

Gamba Osaka — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Issam Jebali n 8	33.5	2.7 3/2	0.7 2/0
Deniz Hümmet n 8	71.4	2.5 7/6	1.7 5/4
Takeru Kishimoto n 8	20.4	2.2 4/0	0.6 1/0
Takashi Usami n 8	73.9	2 6/5	0.8 3/1
S. Kurata n 8	38.9	2 4/2	1.4 3/1

Gamba Osaka — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
S. Kurata n 8	38.9	0.6 2/0	0 0/0
Takeru Kishimoto n 8	20.4	0.6 1/0	0 0/0
Takashi Usami n 8	73.9	0.3 2/0	0.2 1/0
Issam Jebali n 8	33.5	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
Deniz Hümmet n 8	71.4	0.2 1/0	0 0/0

Gamba Osaka — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Shinya Nakano n 8	7.9	8.6 4/2
Takeru Kishimoto n 8	20.4	4.4 4/3
Neta Lavi n 8	66.3	3.1 8/5
Rin Mito n 8	44	3.1 6/4
K. Okunuki n 8	50.3	2.9 5/3

Gamba Osaka — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 16 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Ichimori n 8	90	3.9 7/5

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Machida Zelvia		Gamba Osaka
49%	Possession	51%
2.76	Expected goals (xG)	1.65
12	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	8
6	Shots off target	8
0	Blocked shots	1
11	Shots inside the box	12
5	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
11	Fouls	10
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
7	Saves	3
403	Passes	433
78%	Pass accuracy	78%

Machida Zelvia player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Kosei Tani	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8.2
Daihachi Okamura	90	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	6.3
Ryuho Kikuchi	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.2
Gen Shoji	90	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	7.6
Henry Heroki Mochizuki	90	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	7
Kotaro Hayashi	90	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	7.2
Yuta Nakayama	89	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7.2
T. Nishimura	89	1	0	4	3	0	1	0	7.7
Hiroyuki Mae	79	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7.2
Sang-Ho Na	59	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	6.9
Shota Fujio	59	0	0	3	0	0	0	Y	6.6
Keiya Sento sub	32	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
Se-hun Oh sub	32	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	6.9
Neta Lavi sub	12	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
T. Numata sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–
Hokuto Shimoda sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–

Gamba Osaka player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
J. Ichimori	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
R. Handa	90	0	0	1	1	0	3	7
G. Miura	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
Shinnosuke Nakatani	90	0	0	2	1	0	1	6.7
M. Mitsuta	90	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.7
Takashi Usami	90	0	0	3	1	4	3	7.3
Deniz Hümmet	90	1	0	4	2	1	1	7.2
T. Suzuki	82	0	0	1	0	0	1	6.9
S. Fukuoka	81	0	0	1	1	1	1	6.5
Juan Alano	75	0	0	0	0	3	2	7.3
K. Okunuki	56	0	0	1	0	0	2	6.3
Welton sub	35	0	1	3	2	2	0	7.7
Ryotaro Meshino sub	16	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
Keisuke Kurokawa sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.3
Rin Mito sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Machida ZelviaWWWWW

Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 2.6 scored / 0 conceded per game

Gamba OsakaLWWLL

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 3

Machida Zelvia 2 · 1 draw · Gamba Osaka 0 · 2.33 goals/game

2025-04-02 Gamba Osaka 0–1 Machida Zelvia
2024-06-30 Gamba Osaka 1–3 Machida Zelvia
2024-02-24 Machida Zelvia 1–1 Gamba Osaka

League standing · 2025

Last recorded position — not updated during the season.

Machida Zelvia#6 pos60 pts38 pl+14 GD

Gamba Osaka#9 pos57 pts38 pl-2 GD

Goals per game

Machida Zelvia scored1.37

Gamba Osaka scored1.39

Machida Zelvia conceded1

Gamba Osaka conceded1.45

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Machida Zelvia and Gamba Osaka?: In their last 3 meetings, Machida Zelvia won 2, Gamba Osaka won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Machida Zelvia and Gamba Osaka?: Recent form — Machida Zelvia 5W 0D 0L; Gamba Osaka 2W 0D 3L.

Today’s boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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