Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka prediction

J1 League · Sun, 01 Nov 2026 07:00 GMT · Machida GION Stadium

Updated 29 Oct 2026, 10:03 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Machida Zelvia · Gamba Osaka

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka, J1 League on Sun, 01 Nov 2026 07:00 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.85 at Bet365

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.1% of 586 landed (95% range 63.2–70.7%); it had given them 76.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 479 of 729 times (65.7%), against an average rating of 68.1%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Machida Zelvia host Gamba Osaka in the J1 League on Sunday 1 November (kick-off 07:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in their last 14 matches in all competitions. Gamba Osaka are unbeaten in their last 11 matches in all competitions. Gamba Osaka have scored in 11 consecutive matches in all competitions. Machida Zelvia have kept a clean sheet in their last five matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Five of Machida Zelvia’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (33%). Both teams scored in five of Machida Zelvia’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). At home, Machida Zelvia have five wins, one draw and no defeats in their last 6 home matches in all competitions — 2.67 points per game, scoring 1.67 and conceding 0.17. Machida Zelvia have scored 22 goals, the most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Machida Zelvia have conceded 10 goals, the sixth-fewest of the 20 clubs.

Nine of Gamba Osaka’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in 11 of Gamba Osaka’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). Away from home, Gamba Osaka have six wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 9 away matches in all competitions — 2.22 points per game, scoring 1.89 and conceding 1.11. Gamba Osaka have scored eight goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). Gamba Osaka have conceded 16 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Machida Zelvia (third) and Gamba Osaka (18th) are 14 points apart, 2027 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Machida Zelvia the stronger side, 202 rating points above Gamba Osaka (Machida Zelvia 1790, Gamba Osaka 1588, after at least 99 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Gamba Osaka, every meeting checked. The most recent meeting, on 20 August 2025, finished Machida Zelvia 3–1 Gamba Osaka.

Team news

Predicted Machida Zelvia XI (3-4-2-1): K. Tani, G. Shoji, D. Okamura, T. Ouwejan, H. Mae, T. Akimoto, N. Lavi, H. Mochizuki, Y. Soma, T. Nishimura, K. Ogawa — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Takahiro Akimoto (6.2 per match over three appearances, two assists) and T. Nishimura (5.2 per match over three appearances, three goals) have been Machida Zelvia’s most influential players 2027, all competitions. In numbers for Machida Zelvia (2027, all competitions, before kick-off), Takahiro Akimoto averages 2.7 key passes per 90 over 270 minutes.

Predicted Gamba Osaka XI (4-2-3-1): J. Ichimori, S. Nakatani, S. Fukuoka, T. Kishimoto, R. Hatsuse, S. Abe, R. Mito, R. Yamashita, Welton, E. Adams, Y. Toshida — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Issam Jebali (5.8 per match over three appearances, two goals and one assist) and Takashi Usami (4.5 per match over three appearances, two goals) have been Gamba Osaka’s most influential players 2027, all competitions.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 01 Nov 2026 07:00 GMT · J1 League · Machida GION Stadium
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 4): Machida Zelvia 3 · draws 1 · Gamba Osaka 0 · 2.75 goals/game
Recent form: Machida Zelvia 4W 1D 0L · Gamba Osaka 2W 3D 0L

Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka (J1 League): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 29 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 2.25

Goals

against 0.25 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75

over 8 matches

3.83 / 4.29

Corners

against 3.67 / 3.86 · 1 of the last 4 over 9.5

over 6 matches

7.5 / 6.14

Shots on target

against 3.33 / 3.43 · 2 of the last 4 over 8.5

over 6 matches

1.5 / 1.71

Cards

against 0.83 / 1.29 · 0 of the last 4 over 3.5

over 6 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 28 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 28 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Machida Zelvia for / against	Line	Gamba Osaka for / against
Goals scored	1.75 for · 0.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.75our book	2.25 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.83 for · 3.67 against n 6 Last 5	9.5standard	4.29 for · 3.86 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	17.67 for · 10.33 against n 6 Last 5	19.5standard	15.14 for · 12.29 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	7.5 for · 3.33 against n 6 Last 5	8.5standard	6.14 for · 3.43 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.5 for · 9.83 against n 6 Last 5	21.5standard	12.14 for · 10.71 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	1.5 for · 0.83 against n 6 Last 5	3.5standard	1.71 for · 1.29 against n 7 Last 5

Machida Zelvia

Machida Zelvia Goalkeeper

Machida Zelvia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Kosei Tani	3	90270 min	93 /90	00 /90	00 /90

Machida Zelvia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Machida Zelvia before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Kosei Tani n 8	90	3.6 7/5

Machida Zelvia Defensive

Machida Zelvia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Gen Shoji	3	90270 min	62 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90	155 /90	41.3 /90	10.3 /90
T. Ouwejan	3	88264 min	41.4 /90	31 /90	00 /90	113.8 /90	31 /90	00 /90
Daihachi Okamura	3	74221 min	41.6 /90	72.9 /90	31.2 /90	72.9 /90	72.9 /90	10.4 /90
Kim Min-Tae	1	4545 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	612 /90	12 /90	00 /90
Takahiro Akimoto	3	90270 min	51.7 /90	62 /90	00 /90	196.3 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90
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Machida Zelvia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Machida Zelvia before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Takahiro Akimoto n 4	78.8	1.1 3/1	1.4 3/1	—
Gen Shoji n 8	90	0.6 3/1	1 5/1	—
Kosei Tani n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
T. Ouwejan n 3	88	1 3/0	0.3 1/0	—
Hiroyuki Mae n 8	88.6	1.5 6/3	0.5 3/1	—
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Machida Zelvia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Machida Zelvia before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Gen Shoji n 8	90	1.6 6/4
Takahiro Akimoto n 4	78.8	1.4 3/2
T. Ouwejan n 3	88	1.4 2/2
Hiroyuki Mae n 8	88.6	2.4 7/5
Koki Ogawa n 4	69.8	1 2/1
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Machida Zelvia Attacking

Machida Zelvia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Koki Ogawa	3	86257 min	10.4 /90	00 /90	155.3 /90	62.1 /90	20.7 /90	10.4 /90
Mitchell Duke	2	1937 min	00 /90	00 /90	37.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Tete Yengi	1	6565 min	11.4 /90	00 /90	22.8 /90	22.8 /90	00 /90	11.4 /90
Takahiro Akimoto	3	90270 min	00 /90	20.7 /90	00 /90	00 /90	82.7 /90	41.3 /90
Hiroyuki Mae	3	86259 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	62.1 /90	20.7 /90
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Machida Zelvia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Machida Zelvia before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Gen Shoji n 8	90	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
Kosei Tani n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Takahiro Akimoto n 4	78.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
T. Ouwejan n 3	88	0.7 2/0	0.3 1/0
Hiroyuki Mae n 8	88.6	0.3 2/0	0.3 2/0
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Machida Zelvia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Machida Zelvia before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Takahiro Akimoto n 4	78.8	0 0/0	0.6 2/0
Gen Shoji n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
Kosei Tani n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
T. Ouwejan n 3	88	0 0/0	0 0/0
Hiroyuki Mae n 8	88.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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Gamba Osaka

Gamba Osaka Goalkeeper

Gamba Osaka — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Ichimori	3	78233 min	62.3 /90	31.2 /90	00 /90
M. Higashiguchi	1	3333 min	00 /90	12.7 /90	00 /90

Gamba Osaka — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gamba Osaka before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Ichimori n 8	85.4	2.5 4/3
M. Higashiguchi n 8	82.9	2 4/2

Gamba Osaka Defensive

Gamba Osaka — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Shinnosuke Nakatani	3	90270 min	31 /90	20.7 /90	20.7 /90	103.3 /90	20.7 /90	00 /90
S. Fukuoka	3	85256 min	00 /90	31.1 /90	00 /90	103.5 /90	10.4 /90	00 /90
Takeru Kishimoto	2	90180 min	52.5 /90	31.5 /90	10.5 /90	115.5 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90
Shinya Nakano	2	84167 min	52.7 /90	00 /90	00 /90	94.9 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90
Ryo Hatsuse	1	9090 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	33 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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Gamba Osaka — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gamba Osaka before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Shinnosuke Nakatani n 8	90	0.6 5/0	0.9 4/2	—
Ryoya Yamashita n 8	73.9	0.9 5/1	2 5/4	—
S. Fukuoka n 8	88.3	0.5 3/1	0.4 2/1	—
J. Ichimori n 8	85.4	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0	—
Rin Mito n 8	77	1 5/1	1.5 5/3	—
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Gamba Osaka — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gamba Osaka before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Shinnosuke Nakatani n 8	90	0.6 2/2
Ryoya Yamashita n 8	73.9	1.5 7/2
S. Fukuoka n 8	88.3	0.4 2/1
Rin Mito n 8	77	2.5 6/4
Shuto Abe n 8	72.5	2.6 6/4
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Gamba Osaka Attacking

Gamba Osaka — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Issam Jebali	3	66198 min	20.9 /90	10.5 /90	73.2 /90	52.3 /90	20.9 /90	20.9 /90
Y. Toshida	2	59117 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.8 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
Ryotaro Meshino	1	2525 min	13.6 /90	00 /90	13.6 /90	13.6 /90	00 /90	27.2 /90
Ryoya Yamashita	3	90269 min	00 /90	10.3 /90	31 /90	00 /90	51.7 /90	10.3 /90
Rin Mito	3	75224 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.2 /90	31.2 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90
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Gamba Osaka — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gamba Osaka before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Shinnosuke Nakatani n 8	90	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
Ryoya Yamashita n 8	73.9	0.6 3/1	0.2 1/0
S. Fukuoka n 8	88.3	0.5 3/1	0 0/0
J. Ichimori n 8	85.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
Rin Mito n 8	77	0.7 3/2	0.6 3/1
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Gamba Osaka — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Gamba Osaka before kick-off, to 28 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Shinnosuke Nakatani n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Ryoya Yamashita n 8	73.9	0 0/0	0.6 2/1
S. Fukuoka n 8	88.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Ichimori n 8	85.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
Rin Mito n 8	77	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Machida ZelviaWWWWD

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.2 scored / 0 conceded per game

Gamba OsakaWDWDD

Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · 2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 4

Machida Zelvia 3 · 1 draw · Gamba Osaka 0 · 2.75 goals/game

2025-08-20 Machida Zelvia 3–1 Gamba Osaka
2025-04-02 Gamba Osaka 0–1 Machida Zelvia
2024-06-30 Gamba Osaka 1–3 Machida Zelvia
2024-02-24 Machida Zelvia 1–1 Gamba Osaka

League standing · 2027

Last recorded position — not updated during the season.

Machida Zelvia#3 pos20 pts9 pl+12 GD

Gamba Osaka#18 pos6 pts9 pl-8 GD

Goals per game

Machida Zelvia scored2.44

Gamba Osaka scored0.89

Machida Zelvia conceded1.11

Gamba Osaka conceded1.78

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Machida Zelvia v Gamba Osaka is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.85 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Machida Zelvia and Gamba Osaka?: In their last 4 meetings, Machida Zelvia won 3, Gamba Osaka won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.75 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Machida Zelvia and Gamba Osaka?: Recent form — Machida Zelvia 4W 1D 0L; Gamba Osaka 2W 3D 0L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 29 Oct 2026, 10:03 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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