V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima prediction
Team pages: V-varen Nagasaki · Sanfrecce Hiroshima
TACTIX model preview
TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima, J1 League on Wed, 21 Oct 2026 11:00 BST.
The match
V-varen Nagasaki host Sanfrecce Hiroshima in the J1 League on Wednesday 21 October (kick-off 11:00 UK); the model’s free pick is V-varen Nagasaki or Sanfrecce Hiroshima (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.
The key numbers
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are unbeaten in their last eight matches. Sanfrecce Hiroshima have scored in eight consecutive matches. Sanfrecce Hiroshima have conceded six goals, the fewest of the 20 clubs (2027 so far).
Form and the table
Six of V-varen Nagasaki’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in seven of V-varen Nagasaki’s last 15 results (47%). At home, V-varen Nagasaki have two wins, two draws and two defeats in their last 6 home matches — 1.33 points per game, scoring 1.17 and conceding 1.50. V-varen Nagasaki have scored 11 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far). V-varen Nagasaki have conceded 16 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches. Seven of Sanfrecce Hiroshima’s last 15 results went over 2.5 goals (47%). Both teams scored in seven of Sanfrecce Hiroshima’s last 15 results (47%). Away from home, Sanfrecce Hiroshima have four wins, one draw and two defeats in their last 7 away matches — 1.86 points per game, scoring 1.57 and conceding 0.71. Sanfrecce Hiroshima have scored 22 goals, the most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2027 so far).
V-varen Nagasaki (14th) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima (second) are 11 points apart, 2027 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Sanfrecce Hiroshima the stronger side, 334 rating points above V-varen Nagasaki (Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1761, V-varen Nagasaki 1427, after at least 56 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are unbeaten in the last four meetings with V-varen Nagasaki, every meeting checked. The most recent meeting, on 18 April 2026, finished Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · J1 League · Peace Stadium
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 4): V-varen Nagasaki 0 · draws 0 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4 · 2.5 goals/game
- Recent form: V-varen Nagasaki 2W 1D 2L · Sanfrecce Hiroshima 5W 0D 0L
V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima (J1 League): TACTIX’s calibrated model has priced this fixture across 246 markets — the full record, losers included, is published live (as of 17 October 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | V-varen Nagasaki for / against | Line | Sanfrecce Hiroshima for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.13 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.25our book | 2.25 for · 0.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 3.38 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 5.88 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 10.63 for · 14.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 16.63 for · 9.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 3.13 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 6.13 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 10.88 for · 10.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 11.88 for · 8.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.25 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.13 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
V-varen Nagasaki
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yamasaki Ryogo n 8 | 23.6 | 2.4 | 1.4 | — |
| Riku Yamada n 8 | 60.9 | 2.2 | 0.2 | — |
| K. Doi n 8 | 77.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | — |
| Y. Egawa n 8 | 72.1 | 1.6 | 0.2 | — |
| Matheus Jesus n 8 | 74 | 1.5 | 2.7 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Jesus n 8 | 74 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| Thiago Santana n 8 | 63.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Tsubasa Kasayanagi n 8 | 74.3 | 2 | 0.3 |
| Yamasaki Ryogo n 8 | 23.6 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Keita Takahata n 8 | 34.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Jesus n 8 | 74 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Tsubasa Kasayanagi n 8 | 74.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| Thiago Santana n 8 | 63.9 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Yamasaki Ryogo n 8 | 23.6 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Yamaguchi Hotaru n 8 | 79.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Takuma Ominami n 8 | 76.8 | 2.8 |
| Masahiro Sekiguchi n 8 | 86.9 | 2.1 |
| Hayato Teruyama n 8 | 47.5 | 2.1 |
| Onaga Hijiri n 8 | 79.4 | 2 |
| Asahi Masuyama n 8 | 56.5 | 2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Goto Masaaki n 8 | 90 | 3.8 |
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kinoshita Kosuke n 8 | 34.8 | 3.6 | 1.6 | — |
| D. Suga n 8 | 37.5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | — |
| Ryo Germain n 8 | 38.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | — |
| A. Suzuki n 8 | 65.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | — |
| Kim Ju-Sung n 8 | 54.5 | 1.7 | 1 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kato n 8 | 35.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Y. Chajima n 8 | 26.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Kinoshita Kosuke n 8 | 34.8 | 2.3 | 1 |
| A. Suzuki n 8 | 65.5 | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| S. Haller n 8 | 45.9 | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Suzuki n 8 | 65.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| M. Kato n 8 | 35.1 | 1 | 0 |
| S. Higashi n 8 | 82.3 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Y. Chajima n 8 | 26.1 | 0.9 | 0 |
| Mutsuki Kato n 8 | 53.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Y. Nakajima n 8 | 42.5 | 2.6 |
| N. Maeda n 8 | 26.3 | 2.6 |
| H. Kawabe n 8 | 88.4 | 2 |
| S. Sasaki n 8 | 82.1 | 1.9 |
| M. Kato n 8 | 35.1 | 1.9 |
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Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-04-18 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki
- 2026-02-06 V-varen Nagasaki 1–3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
- 2018-08-11 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–0 V-varen Nagasaki
- 2018-04-28 V-varen Nagasaki 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Frequently asked questions
- Who is predicted to win V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for V-varen Nagasaki v Sanfrecce Hiroshima is Home or Away.
- What is the head-to-head record between V-varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
- In their last 4 meetings, V-varen Nagasaki won 0, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 4 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of V-varen Nagasaki and Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
- Recent form — V-varen Nagasaki 2W 1D 2L; Sanfrecce Hiroshima 5W 0D 0L.
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