Alaves v Atletico Madrid result

Full-time · Alaves 1–1 Atletico Madrid

La Liga · Sat, 30 Aug 2025 16:00 BST

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Alaves · Atletico Madrid · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Alaves 1–1 Atletico Madrid — this La Liga match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.3% of 176 landed (95% range 44.9–59.5%); it had given them 77.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said little between the sides: Alaves 0.86, Atletico Madrid 0.96 in expected goals (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Alaves and Atletico Madrid drew 1–1 in La Liga on Saturday 30 August. Atletico Madrid have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Atletico Madrid: Giuliano Simeone (7’); Alaves: Carlos Vicente (14’ pen).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Carlos Vicente’s goal on 14 minutes.

Discipline

Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain showed five yellow cards — against 3.5 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Alaves: Moussa Diarra (38’) and Víctor Parada (84’); Atletico Madrid: Johnny Cardoso (29’), Alexander Sørloth (42’) and Koke (90+4’).

What it changes

Alaves move down from ninth to 10th (three league matches played).

Atletico Madrid move down from 13th to 14th (three league matches played).

Atletico Madrid are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Carlos Vicente (Alaves) 8.8, Giuliano Simeone (Atletico Madrid) 7.8 and Pablo Barrios (Atletico Madrid) 6.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Alaves next host Malaga on 23 October 2026.

Atletico Madrid next travel to VfB Stuttgart on 20 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Alaves: Alaves v Malaga, Friday 23 October — the preview. Next for Atletico Madrid: VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid, Tuesday 20 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Alaves 1–1 Atletico Madrid · La Liga
Referee: Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Alaves 2 · draws 1 · Atletico Madrid 3 · 2.33 goals/game
Recent form: Alaves 3W 1D 1L · Atletico Madrid 2W 1D 2L

Alaves 1–1 Atletico Madrid (La Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.75 / 1.75

Goals

against 0.5 / 1.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5.75 / 6.29

Corners

against 5.5 / 2.57 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

3.38 / 7

Shots on target

against 2.75 / 3.57 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2.38 / 1

Cards

against 2 / 1.43 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

3.5 yellows

Referee · Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain

1.83 home / 1.67 away

over 6 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 23 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 23 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Alaves for / against	Line	Atletico Madrid for / against
Goals scored	0.75 for · 0.5 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.75 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.75 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	6.29 for · 2.57 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	10.75 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	16.29 for · 8.71 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	3.38 for · 2.75 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	7 for · 3.57 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	16.75 for · 12.25 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.86 for · 11.71 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	2.38 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1 for · 1.43 against n 7 Last 5

Referee: Victor Garcia Verdura, Spain — 3.5 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 23 fouls over 6 matches (1.83 to the home side, 1.67 to the away side).

Home 1.83Away 1.67

Alaves

Alaves — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
M. Díaz n 8	18.8	4.2 4/2	0.6 1/0	—
Tomás Conechny n 8	43.1	3.1 6/2	1 3/1	—
C. Benavídez n 8	22.4	3 5/1	1.5 3/0	—
Carlos Martín n 8	42.3	2.9 6/4	0.5 1/1	—
Joan Jordán n 8	52.1	2.8 6/3	0.4 2/0	—

Alaves — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
M. Díaz n 8	18.8	6.6 5/2	1.2 2/0
Kike García n 8	70.6	2.4 6/4	0.8 3/2
Toni Martínez n 8	40.1	2.2 5/3	0.8 2/1
Calebe n 8	15.5	2.2 3/0	1.5 2/0
Tomás Conechny n 8	43.1	2.1 6/2	0.8 3/0

Alaves — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+
Calebe n 8	15.5	0.7 1/0
A. Rebbach n 8	57.3	0.4 2/0
N. Tenaglia n 8	81	0.3 2/0
Kike García n 8	70.6	0.3 2/0
Tomás Conechny n 8	43.1	0.3 1/0

Alaves — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Benavídez n 8	22.4	6 4/2
Manu Sánchez n 8	83.8	3.9 7/7
Carlos Martín n 8	42.3	3.7 7/6
S. Mouriño n 8	90	3.1 7/4
Calebe n 8	15.5	2.9 3/1

Alaves — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Sivera n 8	90	2.6 6/4

Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
C. Gallagher n 8	26.9	4.6 8/3	1.3 3/0	—
Johnny Cardoso n 8	74.9	1.7 7/2	0.9 5/1	—
Clément Lenglet n 8	84	1.6 8/3	0.3 2/0	—
Marcos Llorente n 8	90	1.5 7/4	0.4 3/0	—
César Azpilicueta n 8	46.5	1.5 5/1	0.2 1/0	—

Atletico Madrid — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Alexander Sørloth n 8	59.1	4.9 7/7	2.9 5/5
Antoine Griezmann n 8	30.6	4.4 5/4	2.2 4/2
A. Correa n 8	63.9	3 5/5	2.1 5/4
C. Gallagher n 8	26.9	2.1 4/1	0 0/0
Julián Alvarez n 8	84.5	2 5/5	1.1 3/3

Atletico Madrid — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
A. Correa n 8	63.9	1.1 4/2	0.2 1/0
Samuel Lino n 8	69.4	0.3 1/1	0.6 2/1
Julián Alvarez n 8	84.5	0.4 2/1	0.4 3/0
R. de Paul n 8	69.9	0 0/0	0.8 4/1
Alexander Sørloth n 8	59.1	0.8 2/1	0 0/0

Atletico Madrid — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Gallagher n 8	26.9	3.3 5/3
Nahuel Molina n 8	24.9	3.2 6/1
César Azpilicueta n 8	46.5	3.1 5/3
Pablo Barrios n 8	62.5	2.9 6/4
Javi Galán n 8	74	2.7 6/5

Atletico Madrid — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Juan Musso n 8	90	2.9 5/5
Jan Oblak n 8	90	2.5 5/4

The next free picks, by email

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Alaves		Atletico Madrid
40%	Possession	60%
0.92	Expected goals (xG)	1.09
5	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	6
2	Shots off target	6
1	Blocked shots	3
3	Shots inside the box	12
1	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
10	Fouls	17
2	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
5	Saves	1
377	Passes	548
80%	Pass accuracy	85%

Alaves player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Sivera	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.3
Jonny	90	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
F. Garcés	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
N. Tenaglia	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
Carlos Vicente	90	1	1	1	0	2	0	7.3
Antonio Blanco	90	0	1	1	0	5	0	7.2
Carles Aleñá	90	0	0	0	1	3	0	7.3
Toni Martínez	80	0	2	0	0	0	0	6.9
Pablo Ibáñez	79	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
M. Diarra	58	0	0	0	1	1	Y	6
Jon Guridi	57	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Víctor Parada sub	33	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.7
Guevara sub	32	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Denis Suárez sub	17	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
C. Benavídez sub	10	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.5
M. Díaz sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2

Atletico Madrid player stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Jan Oblak	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
Marcos Llorente	90	0	2	1	0	0	0	6.3
Robin Le Normand	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
Clément Lenglet	90	0	1	0	0	1	0	7.2
Pablo Barrios	90	0	1	0	0	5	0	7
Alexander Sørloth	90	0	1	1	0	0	Y	5.9
Giuliano Simeone	88	1	1	1	0	2	0	8.3
Julián Alvarez	88	0	1	1	1	2	0	6.2
Thiago Almada	73	0	1	1	0	3	0	7
Dávid Hancko	72	0	1	0	1	1	0	6.2
Johnny Cardoso	72	0	0	0	1	3	Y	6.2
C. Gallagher sub	18	0	0	0	0	2	0	7
Matteo Ruggeri sub	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Koke sub	18	0	0	0	2	0	Y	6.9
G. Raspadori sub	18	0	2	1	0	0	0	6.3
Antoine Griezmann sub	17	0	1	0	1	0	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Alaves v Atletico Madrid — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

AlavesWWDWL

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

Atletico MadridLWWLD

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Alaves 2 · 1 draw · Atletico Madrid 3 · 2.33 goals/game

2025-05-03 Alaves 0–0 Atletico Madrid
2024-11-23 Atletico Madrid 2–1 Alaves
2024-04-21 Alaves 2–0 Atletico Madrid
2023-10-29 Atletico Madrid 2–1 Alaves
2022-04-02 Atletico Madrid 4–1 Alaves
2021-09-25 Alaves 1–0 Atletico Madrid

League standing · 2025/26

Alaves#14 pos43 pts38 pl-12 GD

Atletico Madrid#4 pos69 pts38 pl+18 GD

Goals per game

Alaves scored1.16

Atletico Madrid scored1.63

Alaves conceded1.47

Atletico Madrid conceded1.16

Shot map and expected goals

Alaves 0.86 xG from 5 shots, Atletico Madrid 0.96 from 15. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Alaves (attacking right)Atletico Madrid (attacking left)mark size = expected goals

Team	Shots	Goals	xG
Alaves	5	1	0.86
Atletico Madrid	15	1	0.96

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Alaves v Atletico Madrid?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Alaves v Atletico Madrid was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Atletico Madrid?: In their last 6 meetings, Alaves won 2, Atletico Madrid won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Alaves and Atletico Madrid?: Recent form — Alaves 3W 1D 1L; Atletico Madrid 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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