This Matchweek

BarcelonaReal Madrid

Barcelona v Real Madrid result

Full-time · Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid

La Liga · · Camp Nou

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Barcelona · Real Madrid · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid — Real Madrid won this La Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick
Home win
Best price: 1.70 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 79.6% of 285 landed (95% range 74.6–83.9%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated a home win between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 194 of 283 times (68.6%), against an average rating of 68.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said little between the sides: Barcelona 1.64, Real Madrid 1.95 in expected goals (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Real Madrid won 2–1 at Camp Nou in La Liga on Sunday 25 October. Barcelona have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions. Real Madrid have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Real Madrid led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappé (41’; 87’, assisted by Eduardo Camavinga); Barcelona: Raphinha (61’, assisted by Pedri).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Kylian Mbappé’s goal on 87 minutes.

Discipline

The bookings — Barcelona: Anthony Gordon (84’), Karim-David Adeyemi (90+6’) and Alejandro Balde (90+6’); Real Madrid: Aurélien Tchouaméni (46’), Dean Huijsen (90+2’) and Kylian Mbappé (90+4’).

What it changes

Barcelona stay first after this result (10 league matches played). Barcelona have scored 40 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games, ranked per game). Barcelona have conceded 11 goals, the fifth-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Real Madrid stay third after this result (10 league matches played). Real Madrid have scored 25 goals, the second-most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 10 games, ranked per game). Real Madrid have conceded 10 goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 20 clubs.

Real Madrid have won their last five matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) 9.4, Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) 7.0 and João Cancelo (Barcelona) 6.7 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Barcelona to win, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 79.6% of the time in the last 90 days (227 of 285).

Next up

Barcelona next host Villarreal on 22 November 2026.

Real Madrid next host Celta Vigo on 22 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Barcelona: Barcelona v Villarreal, Sunday 22 November — the preview. Next for Real Madrid: Real Madrid v Celta Vigo, Sunday 22 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid · La Liga
  • Venue: Camp Nou · Barcelona
  • Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Barcelona 5 · draws 0 · Real Madrid 1 · 4.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Barcelona 4W 0D 1L · Real Madrid 4W 0D 1L

Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid (La Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 8 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

4.13 / 2.88
Goals
against 1.63 / 1.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 4.25
over 8 matches
6.63 / 5.88
Corners
against 1.5 / 4 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
8.13 / 7.13
Shots on target
against 4.75 / 6 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.25 / 2
Cards
against 1.88 / 2.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 21 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 21 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBarcelona for / againstLineReal Madrid for / against
Goals scored
4.13 for · 1.63 against n 8
4.25our book
2.88 for · 1.38 against n 8
Corners won
6.63 for · 1.5 against n 8
9.5standard
5.88 for · 4 against n 8
Shots
21.38 for · 8.25 against n 8
19.5standard
16 for · 14.88 against n 8
Shots on target
8.13 for · 4.75 against n 8
8.5standard
7.13 for · 6 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.25 for · 11.25 against n 8
21.5standard
9.25 for · 14.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.25 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
2 for · 2.25 against n 8

Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera.

Barcelona

Barcelona Goalkeeper

Barcelona — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Joan García1186945 min282.7 /9080.8 /9000 /90
D. Livakovic19090 min22 /9011 /9000 /90
W. Szczęsny14545 min00 /9012 /9000 /90
Barcelona — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Barcelona before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Joan García n 884.4
3.15/3

Barcelona Defensive

Barcelona — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Gerard Martín1075751 min70.8 /90101.2 /9010.1 /90283.4 /9081 /9010.1 /90
Pau Cubarsí Paredes987782 min121.4 /90101.2 /9030.3 /90384.4 /9050.6 /9010.1 /90
Eric García975677 min182.4 /9070.9 /9020.3 /90293.9 /9050.7 /9000 /90
X. Espart887694 min253.2 /90101.3 /9000 /90466 /90141.8 /9010.1 /90
A. Christensen770492 min40.7 /9071.3 /9020.4 /90183.3 /9081.5 /9000 /90
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Barcelona — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Barcelona before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Lamine Yamal n 884.5
1.15/3
2.18/3
J. Bellingham
Pedri n 866
0.32/0
0.52/1
—
Joan García n 884.4
00/0
0.32/0
—
Rodri n 875.6
0.74/1
1.25/3
—
Fermín n 862
26/4
0.94/1
—
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Barcelona — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Barcelona before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Lamine Yamal n 884.5
1.15/1
Pedri n 866
1.24/2
Rodri n 875.6
2.26/4
Fermín n 862
1.35/2
A. Gordon n 861.3
0.95/0
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Barcelona Attacking

Barcelona — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Lamine Yamal12841011 min100.9 /90100.9 /90474.2 /90191.7 /90464.1 /90484.3 /90
A. Gordon1161672 min20.3 /9040.5 /90212.8 /90121.6 /90162.1 /90162.1 /90
Raphinha1071706 min141.8 /9030.4 /90243.1 /90192.4 /90222.8 /90202.5 /90
K. Adeyemi946411 min40.9 /9010.2 /90194.2 /9071.5 /9092 /90143.1 /90
Gabriel Jesus454214 min31.3 /9000 /9072.9 /9041.7 /9020.8 /9041.7 /90
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Barcelona — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Barcelona before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Lamine Yamal n 884.5
48/8
1.36/4
Pedri n 866
0.72/2
00/0
Joan García n 884.4
00/0
00/0
Rodri n 875.6
0.43/0
0.11/0
Fermín n 862
2.46/4
1.35/1
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Barcelona — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Barcelona before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Lamine Yamal n 884.5
0.85/1
1.36/4
Pedri n 866
00/0
0.21/0
Joan García n 884.4
00/0
00/0
Rodri n 875.6
0.11/0
00/0
Fermín n 862
0.42/0
0.73/1
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Real Madrid

Real Madrid Goalkeeper

Real Madrid — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Thibaut Courtois12901080 min453.8 /9090.8 /9000 /90
Real Madrid — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Thibaut Courtois n 890
4.57/7

Real Madrid Defensive

Real Madrid — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Marc Cucurella1168752 min253 /9050.6 /9050.6 /90384.5 /9060.7 /9000 /90
I. Konaté1090900 min141.4 /9030.3 /9070.7 /90323.2 /90131.3 /9040.4 /90
Dean Huijsen986772 min121.4 /90192.2 /9020.2 /90303.5 /90101.2 /9010.1 /90
D. Dumfries780563 min121.9 /9040.6 /9020.3 /90213.4 /9040.6 /9010.2 /90
A. Rüdiger681486 min30.6 /9020.4 /9061.1 /90122.2 /9040.7 /9010.2 /90
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Real Madrid — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Thibaut Courtois n 890
00/0
00/0
—
Kylian Mbappé n 888.9
0.63/1
1.35/4
—
F. Valverde n 883.8
0.74/1
0.53/1
—
J. Bellingham n 877.6
15/2
3.58/7
Lamine Yamal
Vinícius Júnior n 867.1
1.35/1
2.37/4
—
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Real Madrid — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Kylian Mbappé n 888.9
0.42/1
F. Valverde n 883.8
1.97/3
J. Bellingham n 877.6
1.76/3
Vinícius Júnior n 867.1
1.55/3
Marc Cucurella n 873.9
2.96/5
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Real Madrid Attacking

Real Madrid — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Kylian Mbappé12891071 min121 /9030.3 /90504.2 /90373.1 /90161.3 /90332.8 /90
Y. Diomande1055548 min30.5 /9040.7 /90111.8 /9040.7 /90132.1 /90304.9 /90
F. Valverde12841009 min10.1 /9020.2 /9090.8 /9040.4 /90111 /9030.3 /90
J. Bellingham1280956 min30.3 /9030.3 /90191.8 /9090.8 /90232.2 /90252.4 /90
Vinícius Júnior1173801 min10.1 /9030.3 /90222.5 /9091 /90141.6 /90161.8 /90
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Real Madrid — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Thibaut Courtois n 890
00/0
00/0
Kylian Mbappé n 888.9
3.37/7
2.47/6
F. Valverde n 883.8
0.95/2
0.43/0
J. Bellingham n 877.6
1.34/4
0.62/2
Vinícius Júnior n 867.1
37/5
1.25/2
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Real Madrid — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Real Madrid before kick-off, to 21 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Thibaut Courtois n 890
00/0
00/0
Kylian Mbappé n 888.9
16/2
0.43/0
F. Valverde n 883.8
0.11/0
0.11/0
J. Bellingham n 877.6
0.11/0
0.11/0
Vinícius Júnior n 867.1
00/0
0.21/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BarcelonaReal Madrid
62%Possession38%
1.27Expected goals (xG)2.00
18Shots10
6Shots on target5
6Shots off target3
6Blocked shots2
11Shots inside the box6
6Corners6
3Offsides3
15Fouls11
3Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
3Saves5
639Passes380

Barcelona Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Joan García9000000006.8
Rodri9000111106.6
Pedri9001004007.6
Gerard Martín9000110006.3
Lamine Yamal9000500106.2
Pau Cubarsí Paredes9000000106.5
João Cancelo9000004507.3
Raphinha8610612108
A. Gordon85003342Y6.7
Fermín7400102006.3
Alejandro Balde60000011Y6.1
X. Espart3000000406.5
F. de Jong1600100006
K. Adeyemi5000000Y6.1
Gabriel Jesus400000006.2

Real Madrid Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Lunin9000000007.8
A. Tchouaméni90000016Y6.5
Kylian Mbappé90203220Y8.8
I. Konaté9000000307.1
Dean Huijsen90000000Y6.6
Marc Cucurella9000000306.6
J. Bellingham9000100506.9
A. Güler8900532107.2
Y. Diomande8900100306.4
Bernardo Silva8000000106.5
F. Valverde6200000107.1
D. Dumfries2800001006.1
Eduardo Camavinga1001001006.7
Trent Alexander-Arnold100000000
Carlos Espí100000000

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Barcelona v Real Madrid — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BarcelonaWWWWL
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 3.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Real MadridLWWWW
Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · 2.8 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Barcelona 5 · 0 draws · Real Madrid 1 · 4.83 goals/game
  • 2026-05-10 Barcelona 2–0 Real Madrid
  • 2026-01-11 Barcelona 3–2 Real Madrid
  • 2025-10-26 Real Madrid 2–1 Barcelona
  • 2025-05-11 Barcelona 4–3 Real Madrid
  • 2025-04-26 Barcelona 3–2 Real Madrid
  • 2025-01-12 Real Madrid 2–5 Barcelona
League standing · 2026/27
Barcelona#1 pos33 pts12 pl+35 GD
Real Madrid#2 pos30 pts12 pl+21 GD
Goals per game
Barcelona scored4
Real Madrid scored2.58
Barcelona conceded1.08
Real Madrid conceded0.83

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Barcelona 1.64 xG from 18 shots, Real Madrid 1.95 from 10. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Lamine Yamal 43' · 0.38 xGGerard Martín 65' · 0.33 xGYan Diomande 46' · 0.29 xGKylian Mbappe-Lottin 32' · 0.27 xGLamine Yamal 82' · 0.12 xGFrenkie de Jong 78' · 0.10 xGRaphinha 54' · 0.09 xGJude Bellingham 77' · 0.08 xGRaphinha 21' · 0.08 xGArda Güler 4' · 0.07 xGLamine Yamal 73' · 0.06 xGRaphinha 64' · 0.06 xGLamine Yamal 80' · 0.06 xGRaphinha 23' · 0.06 xGLamine Yamal 77' · 0.05 xGRodri 44' · 0.05 xGAnthony Gordon 33' · 0.05 xGAnthony Gordon 6' · 0.03 xGArda Güler 70' · 0.03 xGFermín López 22' · 0.03 xGArda Güler 17' · 0.02 xGArda Güler 25' · 0.02 xGAnthony Gordon 14' · 0.02 xGArda Güler 62' · 0.02 xGRaphinha 32' · 0.02 xGKylian Mbappe-Lottin 86' · 0.62 xG · goalKylian Mbappe-Lottin 40' · 0.52 xG · goalRaphinha 60' · 0.06 xG · goal
Barcelona (attacking right)Real Madrid (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Barcelona1811.64
Real Madrid1021.95

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, xG was level: Barcelona 0.71, Real Madrid 0.91. At full time, xG was level: Barcelona 1.64, Real Madrid 1.95. The widest gap was 0.63 xG to Real Madrid, in the 40th minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.91.000′15′30′45′60′75′90′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Real Madrid 40 minGoal - Barcelona 60 minGoal - Real Madrid 86 min
Barcelona 1.64 xGReal Madrid 1.95 xGdots = goals · 28 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Barcelona v Real Madrid?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Barcelona v Real Madrid was Home win (best price 1.70 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Barcelona and Real Madrid?
In their last 6 meetings, Barcelona won 5, Real Madrid won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 4.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Barcelona and Real Madrid?
Recent form — Barcelona 4W 0D 1L; Real Madrid 4W 0D 1L.

Today’s Boards

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