Malaga v Racing Santander prediction

La Liga · · Estadio La Rosaleda

Updated · refreshed continuously

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Away the free pick for Malaga v Racing Santander, La Liga on Sat, 07 Nov 2026 13:00 GMT.

Free pick
Home or Away
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.7% of 4960 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,827 of 2,456 times (74.4%), against an average rating of 73.3%. How we measure →
Match preview, in numbers

The match

Malaga host Racing Santander in La Liga on Saturday 7 November (kick-off 13:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Malaga or Racing Santander (no draw), a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Racing Santander have conceded 26 goals, the most of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Malaga have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions. Racing Santander are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Malaga, every meeting checked.

Form and the table

Six of Malaga’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in nine of Malaga’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Malaga have no wins, five draws and two defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 0.71 points per game, scoring 0.86 and conceding 1.57. Malaga have scored eight goals, the third-fewest of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far). Malaga have conceded 21 goals, the third-most (shared) of the 20 clubs.

11 of Racing Santander’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 11 of Racing Santander’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). Away from home, Racing Santander have two wins, one draw and five defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.88 points per game, scoring 1.13 and conceding 2.50. Racing Santander have scored 15 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 20 clubs (2026/27 so far).

Malaga (20th) and Racing Santander (15th) are six points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Racing Santander the stronger side, 143 rating points above Malaga (Racing Santander 1400, Malaga 1257, after at least 10 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 24 May 2026, finished Malaga 1–1 Racing Santander.

Team news

Predicted Malaga XI (4-1-4-1): A. Herrero, Rafita, Á. Recio, Puga, E. Galilea, D. Larrubia, D. Lorenzo, C. Dotor, R. Enríquez, A. Ben Cheikh, A. Heredia — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, David Larrubia (4.1 per match over 11 appearances) and Adrián Niño Heredia (4.0 per match over seven appearances, five goals) have been Malaga’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Malaga (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), David Larrubia averages 1.5 key passes per 90 over 882 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Adrián Niño Heredia averages 3.4 shots per 90 over 370 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last seven appearances.

Predicted Racing Santander XI (4-2-3-1): J. Agirrezabala, Á. Mantilla, J. Belocian, P. Ramón, A. Martín, I. Vicente, I. Martín, S. Canales, M. Prati, A. Almeida, M. Zabiri — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Iñigo Vicente (4.4 per match over 10 appearances, three assists) and Jorge Salinas (4.1 per match over 10 appearances, one assist) have been Racing Santander’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Racing Santander (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Iñigo Vicente averages 3.3 key passes per 90 over 812 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. Jorge Salinas averages 3.2 tackles per 90 over 811 minutes, with a tackle in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

  • Kick-off: · La Liga · Estadio La Rosaleda
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Malaga 0 · draws 3 · Racing Santander 3 · 1.5 goals/game
  • Recent form: Malaga 1W 2D 2L · Racing Santander 2W 1D 2L

Malaga v Racing Santander (La Liga): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 1 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.5
Goals
against 1.75 / 2.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
5 / 4.86
Corners
against 5.43 / 7.14 · 2 of the last 4 over 9.5
over 7 matches
3.86 / 5.29
Shots on target
against 6 / 6.57 · 3 of the last 4 over 8.5
over 7 matches
2.29 / 3
Cards
against 2.29 / 3.14 · 1 of the last 4 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 31 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameMalaga for / againstLineRacing Santander for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1.75 against n 8
3our book
1.5 for · 2.63 against n 8
Corners won
5 for · 5.43 against n 7
9.5standard
4.86 for · 7.14 against n 7
Shots
11 for · 17.57 against n 7
19.5standard
12.57 for · 16.57 against n 7
Shots on target
3.86 for · 6 against n 7
8.5standard
5.29 for · 6.57 against n 7
Fouls committed
12 for · 11.86 against n 7
21.5standard
12.29 for · 14.71 against n 7
Cards shown
2.29 for · 2.29 against n 7
3.5standard
3 for · 3.14 against n 7

Malaga

Malaga Goalkeeper

Malaga — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Alfonso Herrero1190990 min403.6 /90191.7 /9000 /90
Malaga — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Malaga before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Alfonso Herrero n 890
3.58/7

Malaga Defensive

Malaga — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Rafita1184922 min131.3 /90141.4 /9080.8 /90464.5 /9080.8 /9020.2 /90
Ángel Recio1090900 min111.1 /9060.6 /9080.8 /90282.8 /9060.6 /9000 /90
Puga964572 min284.4 /90101.6 /9060.9 /90558.7 /90142.2 /9030.5 /90
Einar Galilea881649 min91.2 /90111.5 /9030.4 /90243.3 /9071 /9020.3 /90
José Salinas853427 min122.5 /9051.1 /9020.4 /90245.1 /9061.3 /9010.2 /90
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Malaga — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Malaga before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Alfonso Herrero n 890
0.11/0
0.32/0
—
Rafita n 881.5
0.64/0
1.77/4
—
David Larrubia n 883.5
1.24/3
1.16/2
—
Ángel Recio n 890
0.64/1
0.42/1
—
Chupe n 874.1
1.45/3
1.25/3
—
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Malaga — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Malaga before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Rafita n 881.5
1.47/3
David Larrubia n 883.5
2.38/4
Ángel Recio n 890
1.36/3
Chupe n 874.1
0.53/0
Carlos Dotor n 873.3
2.56/6
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Malaga Attacking

Malaga — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Chupe1077773 min10.1 /9000 /90161.9 /9060.7 /9030.3 /9030.3 /90
Adrián Niño Heredia753370 min51.2 /9000 /90143.4 /9092.2 /9030.7 /9030.7 /90
H. Abaida21733 min00 /9000 /9012.7 /9000 /9012.7 /9012.7 /90
Eneko Jauregi14545 min00 /9000 /9012 /9012 /9000 /9000 /90
David Larrubia1180882 min00 /9000 /90101 /9040.4 /90151.5 /90262.7 /90
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Malaga — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Malaga before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Alfonso Herrero n 890
00/0
00/0
Rafita n 881.5
0.32/0
00/0
David Larrubia n 883.5
0.84/2
0.31/1
Ángel Recio n 890
0.85/1
0.11/0
Chupe n 874.1
27/3
0.83/2
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Malaga — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Malaga before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Alfonso Herrero n 890
00/0
00/0
Rafita n 881.5
00/0
0.11/0
David Larrubia n 883.5
00/0
00/0
Ángel Recio n 890
00/0
00/0
Chupe n 874.1
00/0
00/0
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Racing Santander

Racing Santander Goalkeeper

Racing Santander — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Julen Agirrezabala1090900 min353.5 /90262.6 /9010.1 /90
Racing Santander — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Racing Santander before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Julen Agirrezabala n 890
3.86/6

Racing Santander Defensive

Racing Santander — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Jorge Salinas989803 min293.3 /90141.6 /9030.3 /90667.4 /90111.2 /9050.6 /90
Álvaro Mantilla987782 min232.6 /9080.9 /9030.3 /90374.3 /90111.3 /9030.3 /90
Pablo Ramón877615 min172.5 /90111.6 /9030.4 /90466.7 /9040.6 /9040.6 /90
J. Belocian681485 min10.2 /9091.7 /9040.7 /90173.2 /9091.7 /9010.2 /90
Manu Hernando579397 min51.1 /9040.9 /9040.9 /90184.1 /9051.1 /9010.2 /90
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Racing Santander — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Racing Santander before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Julen Agirrezabala n 890
00/0
0.11/0
—
Iñigo Vicente n 879
13/1
2.37/4
—
Sergio Canales n 874
0.95/1
2.37/5
—
M. Zabiri n 875.6
1.86/3
0.64/0
—
Jorge Salinas n 889.1
1.46/4
1.88/4
—
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Racing Santander — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Racing Santander before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Iñigo Vicente n 879
1.78/4
Sergio Canales n 874
1.25/2
M. Zabiri n 875.6
16/1
Jorge Salinas n 889.1
38/7
Álvaro Mantilla n 886.5
2.98/6
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Racing Santander Attacking

Racing Santander — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
M. Zabiri1065652 min81.1 /9000 /90172.3 /90131.8 /9040.6 /9060.8 /90
Pablo García646276 min10.3 /9000 /90103.3 /9051.6 /9010.3 /9051.6 /90
Asier Villalibre643257 min00 /9010.4 /9031.1 /9010.4 /9010.4 /9000 /90
Iker Luque440160 min00 /9000 /9010.6 /9010.6 /9010.6 /9052.8 /90
G. Guliashvili31751 min00 /9000 /9011.8 /9000 /9000 /9011.8 /90
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Racing Santander — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Racing Santander before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Julen Agirrezabala n 890
00/0
00/0
Iñigo Vicente n 879
0.63/1
0.43/0
Sergio Canales n 874
26/4
0.95/1
M. Zabiri n 875.6
2.56/5
1.95/5
Jorge Salinas n 889.1
0.84/1
0.43/0
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Racing Santander — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Racing Santander before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Julen Agirrezabala n 890
00/0
00/0
Iñigo Vicente n 879
00/0
0.43/0
Sergio Canales n 874
0.21/0
0.21/0
M. Zabiri n 875.6
1.25/2
00/0
Jorge Salinas n 889.1
00/0
0.11/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Malaga v Racing Santander — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
MalagaDLDWL
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Racing SantanderLDLWW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Malaga 0 · 3 draws · Racing Santander 3 · 1.5 goals/game
  • 2026-05-24 Malaga 1–1 Racing Santander
  • 2025-10-05 Racing Santander 3–0 Malaga
  • 2025-02-01 Racing Santander 2–1 Malaga
  • 2024-11-23 Malaga 0–0 Racing Santander
  • 2023-03-05 Malaga 0–1 Racing Santander
  • 2022-10-01 Racing Santander 0–0 Malaga
League standing · 2026/27
Malaga#20 pos5 pts11 pl-13 GD
Racing Santander#15 pos11 pts10 pl-11 GD
Goals per game
Malaga scored0.73
Racing Santander scored1.5
Malaga conceded1.91
Racing Santander conceded2.6

See the full prediction

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Expected goals (xG)
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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Malaga v Racing Santander?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Malaga v Racing Santander is Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Malaga and Racing Santander?
In their last 6 meetings, Malaga won 0, Racing Santander won 3 and there were 3 draws, averaging 1.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Malaga and Racing Santander?
Recent form — Malaga 1W 2D 2L; Racing Santander 2W 1D 2L.

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