ValenciaAtletico Madrid

Valencia v Atletico Madrid result

Full-time · Valencia 0–2 Atletico Madrid

La Liga · · Estadio de Mestalla

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Valencia · Atletico Madrid · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Valencia 0–2 Atletico Madrid — Atletico Madrid won this La Liga match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.5% of 505 landed (95% range 64.3–72.4%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 577 of 895 times (64.5%), against an average rating of 67.5%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Atletico Madrid: 1.81 to 0.78 in expected goals, from 20 shots to 12, ahead on xG from the 14th minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Atletico Madrid won 2–0 at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga on Saturday 2 May. Atletico Madrid have scored in 14 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Atletico Madrid: I. Luque (74’, assisted by Obed Vargas) and Miguel Cubo (82’, assisted by Antoine Griezmann).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with I. Luque’s goal on 74 minutes.

Discipline

J. Munuera showed four yellow cards — against 3.6 yellows a game across the last 11 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Valencia: César Tárrega (67’); Atletico Madrid: Thiago Almada (29’), Rodrigo Mendoza (52’) and Obed Vargas (61’).

What it changes

Valencia move down from 11th to 13th (34 league matches played).

Atletico Madrid stay fourth after this result (34 league matches played).

Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Clément Lenglet (Atletico Madrid) 5.7, Obed Vargas (Atletico Madrid) 5.7 and Miguel Cubo (Atletico Madrid) 5.4 led the match.

Head-to-head

Atletico Madrid are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Valencia.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Valencia next travel to Tavernes on 10 November 2026.

Atletico Madrid next host Barcelona on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Valencia: Tavernes v Valencia, Tuesday 10 November — the preview. Next for Atletico Madrid: Atletico Madrid v Barcelona, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Valencia 0–2 Atletico Madrid · La Liga
  • Venue: Estadio de Mestalla · Valencia
  • Referee: J. Munuera
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Valencia 1 · draws 0 · Atletico Madrid 5 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Valencia 2W 1D 2L · Atletico Madrid 1W 2D 2L

Valencia 0–2 Atletico Madrid (La Liga): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.38 / 1.63
Goals
against 1.13 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
6 / 3.14
Corners
against 3.38 / 6.29 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.13 / 3.29
Shots on target
against 3.88 / 5.29 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.63 / 2.57
Cards
against 2.75 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
3.64 yellows
Referee · J. Munuera
24.36 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 11 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 29 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 29 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameValencia for / againstLineAtletico Madrid for / against
Goals scored
1.38 for · 1.13 against n 8
2.75our book
1.63 for · 1.75 against n 8
Corners won
6 for · 3.38 against n 8
9.5standard
3.14 for · 6.29 against n 7
Shots
14 for · 10.75 against n 8
19.5standard
9.86 for · 14.71 against n 7
Shots on target
4.13 for · 3.88 against n 8
8.5standard
3.29 for · 5.29 against n 7
Fouls committed
13.25 for · 13.5 against n 8
21.5standard
12.29 for · 9.43 against n 7
Cards shown
1.63 for · 2.75 against n 8
3.5standard
2.57 for · 2 against n 7

Referee: J. Munuera — 3.64 yellow cards a game, 0.27 red cards, 24.36 fouls over 11 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Valencia

Valencia Goalkeeper

Valencia — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Julen Agirrezabala19901710 min573 /90301.6 /9010.1 /90
S. Dimitrievski17901530 min432.5 /90201.2 /9010.1 /90
Valencia — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 29 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Julen Agirrezabala n 890
2.14/3
S. Dimitrievski n 890
2.97/3

Valencia Defensive

Valencia — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
César Tárrega28822291 min371.5 /90261 /90180.7 /901064.2 /90381.5 /9060.2 /90
José Gayà28802227 min572.3 /90200.8 /9050.2 /901054.2 /90301.2 /9060.2 /90
Copete24801916 min271.3 /90221 /90170.8 /90854 /90231.1 /9060.3 /90
Thierry Correia21651356 min291.9 /90161.1 /9000 /90755 /90281.9 /9050.3 /90
D. Foulquier15871309 min181.2 /9080.6 /9010.1 /90493.4 /90181.2 /9010.1 /90
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Valencia — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 29 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Luis Rioja n 865
0.72/2
1.25/2
—
Hugo Duro n 847
0.52/0
2.47/2
—
César Tárrega n 875.1
1.66/4
0.73/1
—
José Gayà n 875.8
1.66/3
0.95/1
—
A. Danjuma n 852.1
0.93/1
1.13/1
—
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Valencia — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 29 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Luis Rioja n 865
1.73/3
Hugo Duro n 847
1.24/1
César Tárrega n 875.1
0.75/0
José Gayà n 875.8
1.97/4
A. Danjuma n 852.1
0.63/0
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Valencia Attacking

Valencia — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Hugo Duro31551716 min90.5 /9000 /90261.4 /90120.6 /90140.7 /9030.2 /90
A. Danjuma28601669 min30.2 /9020.1 /90281.5 /90150.8 /90140.8 /90271.5 /90
L. Beltrán26571469 min20.1 /9020.1 /90241.5 /90110.7 /90140.9 /90171 /90
L. Ramazani19631203 min50.4 /9010.1 /90312.3 /90181.3 /90161.2 /90191.4 /90
U. Sadiq1653851 min50.5 /9020.2 /90202.1 /9091 /9080.8 /90121.3 /90
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Valencia — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 29 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Luis Rioja n 865
0.52/1
00/0
Hugo Duro n 847
1.44/2
0.52/0
César Tárrega n 875.1
0.32/0
00/0
José Gayà n 875.8
0.43/0
0.32/0
A. Danjuma n 852.1
0.93/1
0.63/0
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Valencia — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Valencia before kick-off, to 29 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Luis Rioja n 865
00/0
0.21/0
Hugo Duro n 847
0.52/0
00/0
César Tárrega n 875.1
00/0
00/0
José Gayà n 875.8
00/0
0.11/0
A. Danjuma n 852.1
00/0
00/0
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Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid Goalkeeper

Atletico Madrid — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
Jan Oblak42903780 min1042.5 /90541.3 /9000 /90
Juan Musso14911267 min654.6 /90181.3 /9010.1 /90
Atletico Madrid — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Madrid before kick-off, to 29 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Jan Oblak n 890
2.85/4
Juan Musso n 890.9
5.27/7

Atletico Madrid Defensive

Atletico Madrid — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Marcos Llorente44813584 min862.2 /90280.7 /90110.3 /901393.5 /90411 /9080.2 /90
Dávid Hancko43853670 min721.8 /90431.1 /90220.5 /901563.8 /90200.5 /9030.1 /90
Matteo Ruggeri39773001 min862.6 /90471.4 /9060.2 /901313.9 /90441.3 /9070.2 /90
Robin Le Normand35712501 min471.7 /90240.9 /90130.5 /901415.1 /90291 /9050.2 /90
Nahuel Molina34632127 min572.4 /90220.9 /9040.2 /90903.8 /90180.8 /9040.2 /90
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Atletico Madrid — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Madrid before kick-off, to 29 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Giuliano Simeone n 863.8
0.73/1
1.24/2
—
Julián Alvarez n 870.6
1.96/4
0.52/1
—
Koke n 870.3
1.46/2
0.85/0
—
Antoine Griezmann n 867.4
0.53/0
0.74/0
—
Alexander Sørloth n 848.3
2.36/3
0.93/1
—
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Atletico Madrid — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Madrid before kick-off, to 29 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Giuliano Simeone n 863.8
3.28/6
Julián Alvarez n 870.6
2.47/5
Koke n 870.3
2.97/5
Antoine Griezmann n 867.4
15/1
Alexander Sørloth n 848.3
0.92/1
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Atletico Madrid Attacking

Atletico Madrid — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Julián Alvarez49723533 min190.5 /90100.3 /90942.4 /90531.4 /90922.3 /90591.5 /90
Antoine Griezmann48512426 min130.5 /9040.1 /90642.4 /90391.4 /90552 /90140.5 /90
Alexander Sørloth46572632 min190.6 /9010 /90873 /90521.8 /90200.7 /90200.7 /90
Ademola Lookman1855996 min60.5 /9030.3 /90252.3 /90111 /90141.3 /90181.6 /90
G. Raspadori1235422 min20.4 /9010.2 /90102.1 /9061.3 /9051.1 /9020.4 /90
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Atletico Madrid — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Madrid before kick-off, to 29 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Giuliano Simeone n 863.8
1.14/1
0.53/0
Julián Alvarez n 870.6
37/5
1.97/4
Koke n 870.3
0.21/0
00/0
Antoine Griezmann n 867.4
15/1
0.53/0
Alexander Sørloth n 848.3
1.94/1
1.23/1
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Atletico Madrid — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Atletico Madrid before kick-off, to 29 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Giuliano Simeone n 863.8
0.21/0
0.21/0
Julián Alvarez n 870.6
0.84/1
0.53/0
Koke n 870.3
00/0
00/0
Antoine Griezmann n 867.4
0.21/0
00/0
Alexander Sørloth n 848.3
0.72/1
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
ValenciaAtletico Madrid
53%Possession47%
1.09Expected goals (xG)2.04
12Shots20
0Shots on target5
7Shots off target11
5Blocked shots4
8Shots inside the box12
1Corners7
4Offsides4
9Fouls12
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
3Saves0
469Passes425
84%Pass accuracy83%

Valencia Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
S. Dimitrievski9000000006.6
César Tárrega90000001Y6.9
Pepelu9000000306.9
Javi Guerra9000102106.9
G. Rodríguez9000102307.2
U. Sadiq9000200006.2
R. Saravia8200000106.2
José Gayà7300101207.5
L. Ramazani7300200106.5
Luis Rioja5900000006.7
F. Ugrinic5900002306.9
Diego López sub3100001106.9
Hugo Duro sub3100000106.2
Jesús Vázquez sub1700000006.2
A. Danjuma sub1700001106.6
Dani Raba sub800000006.6

Atletico Madrid Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Juan Musso9000000006.6
Robin Le Normand9000100207.2
Clément Lenglet9000100307.3
Julio Díaz9000001006.9
Nahuel Molina9000214107.3
Obed Vargas90011012Y7.3
Javier Boñar8900100206.9
Rodrigo Mendoza73001100Y7.2
Thiago Almada73001031Y6.9
J. Morcillo6300201206.9
Rayane Belid6300202206
I. Luque sub2710320107.3
Miguel Cubo sub2710110107.2
Koke sub1700000306.9
Antoine Griezmann sub1701002006.3
A. Puric sub10000000–

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Valencia v Atletico Madrid — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
ValenciaWLLDW
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Atletico MadridLDLWD
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.8 scored / 2 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Valencia 1 · 0 draws · Atletico Madrid 5 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2025-12-13 Atletico Madrid 2–1 Valencia
  • 2025-02-22 Valencia 0–3 Atletico Madrid
  • 2024-09-15 Atletico Madrid 3–0 Valencia
  • 2024-01-28 Atletico Madrid 2–0 Valencia
  • 2023-09-16 Valencia 3–0 Atletico Madrid
  • 2023-03-18 Atletico Madrid 3–0 Valencia
League standing · 2025/26
Valencia#9 pos49 pts38 pl-9 GD
Atletico Madrid#4 pos69 pts38 pl+18 GD
Goals per game
Valencia scored1.21
Atletico Madrid scored1.63
Valencia conceded1.45
Atletico Madrid conceded1.16

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Valencia 0.78 xG from 12 shots, Atletico Madrid 1.81 from 20. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Rayane Belaid 59' · 0.34 xGIker Luque 93' · 0.21 xGRaba 96' · 0.16 xGRodrigo Mendoza 14' · 0.12 xGUmar Sadiq 88' · 0.12 xGRayane Belaid 35' · 0.11 xGThiago Almada 41' · 0.11 xGJavier Morcillo 34' · 0.11 xGObed Vargas 57' · 0.09 xGLargie Ramazani 38' · 0.09 xGLargie Ramazani 68' · 0.08 xGGuido Rodríguez 47' · 0.07 xGNahuel Molina 46' · 0.07 xGRobin Le Normand 34' · 0.07 xGLargie Ramazani 24' · 0.07 xGRobin Le Normand 37' · 0.07 xGUmar Sadiq 94' · 0.06 xGRobin Le Normand 16' · 0.06 xGUmar Sadiq 85' · 0.04 xGFilip Ugrinic 25' · 0.04 xGJavier Morcillo 14' · 0.04 xGClement Lenglet 79' · 0.02 xGObed Vargas 65' · 0.02 xGJavier Guerra 38' · 0.02 xGRaba 95' · 0.02 xGJosé Gayá 62' · 0.02 xGIker Luque 94' · 0.01 xGNahuel Molina 15' · 0.01 xGNahuel Molina 16' · 0.01 xGJavier Boñar 65' · 0.01 xGCubo 81' · 0.27 xG · goalIker Luque 73' · 0.05 xG · goal
Valencia (attacking right)Atletico Madrid (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Valencia1200.78
Atletico Madrid2021.81

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Atletico Madrid led on xG, 0.70 to 0.21. At full time, Atletico Madrid led on xG, 1.81 to 0.78. The widest gap was 1.25 xG to Atletico Madrid, in the 93rd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
1.80.900′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Atletico Madrid 73 minGoal - Atletico Madrid 81 min
Valencia 0.78 xGAtletico Madrid 1.81 xGdots = goals · 32 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Valencia v Atletico Madrid?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Valencia v Atletico Madrid was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Atletico Madrid?
In their last 6 meetings, Valencia won 1, Atletico Madrid won 5 and there were 0 draws, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Valencia and Atletico Madrid?
Recent form — Valencia 2W 1D 2L; Atletico Madrid 1W 2D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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