CardiffSwindon Town

Cardiff v Swindon Town result

Full-time · Cardiff 2–1 Swindon Town

League Cup ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Cardiff · Swindon Town

The model’s pre-match pick

Cardiff 2–1 Swindon Town — Cardiff won this League Cup match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Under 2.5 goals
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 55% of 140 landed (95% range 46.7–63%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Cardiff beat Swindon Town 2–1 in the League Cup on Tuesday 12 August.

The goals

Cardiff led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Cardiff: Cian Ashford (21’) and Rubin Colwill (45’); Swindon Town: Princewill Ehibhatiomhan (55’, assisted by D. Oldaker).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Cian Ashford’s goal on 21 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Cardiff 3.15, Swindon Town 0.89, from 17 shots to 8 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Elliot Bell, England showed three yellow cards — against 4.0 yellows a game across the last 16 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Cardiff: Ronan Kpakio (60’); Swindon Town: Oliver Clarke (52’) and Joel McGregor (80’).

What it changes

Cardiff sit second on six points from two games with a goal difference of +4 (2025/26 so far).

Swindon Town sit 57th on no points from one game with a goal difference of -1 (2025/26 so far).

Cardiff are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Cian Ashford (Cardiff) 7.6, Princewill Ehibhatiomhan (Swindon Town) 7.4 and Rubin Colwill (Cardiff) 6.6 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Cardiff next travel to Norwich on 21 November 2026.

Swindon Town next host Grimsby on 14 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Cardiff: Norwich v Cardiff, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Swindon Town: Swindon Town v Grimsby, Saturday 14 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Cardiff 2–1 Swindon Town · League Cup
  • Referee: Elliot Bell, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Cardiff 1W 3D 1L · Swindon Town 1W 2D 2L

Cardiff 2–1 Swindon Town (League Cup): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.88 / 2.25
Goals
against 1.38 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.57 / 5.25
Corners
against 3.57 / 2.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 7 matches
4.29 / 4.88
Shots on target
against 3.86 / 3.63 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 7 matches
1.71 / 1.5
Cards
against 1.86 / 3.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 7 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 9 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 9 August 2025. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameCardiff for / againstLineSwindon Town for / against
Goals scored
0.88 for · 1.38 against n 8
2.5standard
2.25 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
5.57 for · 3.57 against n 7
9.5standard
5.25 for · 2.25 against n 8
Shots
15 for · 12.86 against n 7
19.5standard
13.38 for · 8.38 against n 8
Shots on target
4.29 for · 3.86 against n 7
8.5standard
4.88 for · 3.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.57 for · 12.43 against n 7
21.5standard
12.63 for · 10.88 against n 8
Cards shown
1.71 for · 1.86 against n 7
3.5standard
1.5 for · 3.13 against n 8

Cardiff

Cardiff Defensive

Cardiff — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
R. Kpakio n 770.4
1.34/2
1.14/2
W. Wright
R. Wintle n 873.9
1.14/2
0.63/1
—
Joel Bagan n 879.3
15/2
0.74/1
W. Wright
R. Colwill n 865.3
15/1
1.24/2
—
Y. Salech n 880.1
1.57/3
2.27/5
—
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Cardiff — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
R. Kpakio n 770.4
2.66/4
R. Colwill n 865.3
2.24/2
R. Wintle n 873.9
1.56/3
Joel Bagan n 879.3
1.35/3
Y. Salech n 880.1
0.43/0
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Cardiff Attacking

Cardiff — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
R. Colwill n 865.3
1.43/2
0.72/2
R. Wintle n 873.9
0.52/1
0.32/0
R. Kpakio n 770.4
0.21/0
0.21/0
Joel Bagan n 879.3
00/0
00/0
Y. Salech n 880.1
2.77/6
1.35/3
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Cardiff — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
R. Kpakio n 770.4
0.21/0
0.21/0
R. Wintle n 873.9
0.21/0
00/0
R. Colwill n 865.3
0.21/0
00/0
Joel Bagan n 879.3
00/0
0.11/0
Y. Salech n 880.1
0.42/1
0.11/0
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Swindon Town

Swindon Town Defensive

Swindon Town — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
H. Smith n 888.5
1.98/6
1.46/5
—
O. Clarke n 874.8
1.76/4
1.24/2
—
W. Wright n 890
0.42/1
0.83/2
Joel Bagan
C. Ripley n 890
0.11/0
0.32/0
—
A. Drinan n 877.3
0.32/0
0.74/1
—
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Swindon Town — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
O. Clarke n 874.8
38/4
W. Wright n 890
1.15/3
H. Smith n 888.5
0.54/0
C. Ripley n 890
00/0
A. Drinan n 877.3
1.67/3
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Swindon Town Attacking

Swindon Town — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
H. Smith n 888.5
1.97/4
0.94/2
O. Clarke n 874.8
1.25/2
0.32/0
W. Wright n 890
0.94/1
0.53/1
C. Ripley n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Drinan n 877.3
1.36/3
0.32/0
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Swindon Town — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 9 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
H. Smith n 888.5
0.42/1
0.11/0
O. Clarke n 874.8
0.21/0
0.21/0
W. Wright n 890
0.32/0
00/0
C. Ripley n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Drinan n 877.3
0.32/0
0.11/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
CardiffSwindon Town
73%Possession27%
3.15Expected goals (xG)0.89
17Shots8
10Shots on target1
5Shots off target6
2Blocked shots1
10Shots inside the box5
12Corners2
4Offsides3
7Fouls14
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
0Saves7
599Passes216
87%Pass accuracy66%

Cardiff Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
N. Trott9000000006.3
R. Kpakio90000003Y6.3
W. Fish9000000007.3
C. Chambers9000210006.9
Joel Bagan9000222306.7
R. Wintle9000100006.7
D. Turnbull8900220006.7
Cian Ashford8710211208
R. Colwill8610422108.3
C. Robinson6800001007.2
I. Davies6800002106.5
C. Willock sub2300003106.9
Y. Salech sub2300111006.7
J. Colwill sub1100000006.6
O. Tanner sub1100110106.3
E. King sub10000000–

Swindon Town Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Joel McGregor90000006Y6.2
Filozofe Mabete9000000005.7
G. Kilkenny9000000206.7
J. Ball9000000207.5
P. Glatzel9000101406.9
H. Smith9000100106.6
Princewill Ehibhatiomhan7710210208.3
C. Ripley5000000006.5
W. Wright4500000206.2
T. Wilson-Brown4500000006
B. Bodin4500101006.7
Finley Munroe sub4500101006.9
O. Clarke sub45000002Y6.9
D. Oldaker sub4501002006.9
Lewis Moore Ward sub4100000008.3
Jake Tabor sub1400100006.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Cardiff v Swindon Town — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
CardiffDDLWD
Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Swindon TownLDDLW
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game
Goals per game
Cardiff scored1
Swindon Town scored1
Cardiff conceded1.2
Swindon Town conceded1.2

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Cardiff v Swindon Town?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Cardiff v Swindon Town was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the recent form of Cardiff and Swindon Town?
Recent form — Cardiff 1W 3D 1L; Swindon Town 1W 2D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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