Derby v Lincoln result
The model’s pre-match pick
Derby 1–2 Lincoln — Lincoln won this League Cup match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.
The result
Lincoln won 2–1 at Pride Park in the League Cup on Saturday 8 August. Lincoln are unbeaten in at least their last 15 matches in all competitions.
The goals
Lincoln led 2–1 at half-time. The goals — Lincoln: Benjamin House (3’, assisted by Ivan Varfolomeev) and Dominic Jefferies (23’, assisted by Frederick Draper); Derby: Samuel Szmodics (45’).
How it turned
Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Benjamin House’s goal on 3 minutes.
The numbers
Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Derby 0.00, Lincoln 0.00, from 8 shots to 14 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).
Discipline
J. Smith showed three yellow cards — against 3.6 yellows a game across the last 18 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Derby: Lewis Travis (35’); Lincoln: Adam Reach (32’) and Benjamin House (48’).
What it changes
Derby sit 15th on no points from one game with a goal difference of -1 (2026/27 so far).
Lincoln sit fourth on three points from one game with a goal difference of +1 (2026/27 so far).
It is Lincoln’s first win over Derby since 13 September 2022, after three meetings without one (the 4 prior meetings TACTIX holds). Derby have scored in 10 consecutive matches in all competitions. Lincoln have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.
Who stood out
By TACTIX Impact for this match, Ivan Varfolomeev (Lincoln) 7.0, Samuel Szmodics (Derby) 6.9 and Benjamin House (Lincoln) 6.1 led the match.
Head-to-head
Derby are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Lincoln.
What the model said
The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.
Next up
Derby next travel to Southampton on 21 November 2026.
Lincoln next host Wrexham on 21 November 2026.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
Next for Derby: Southampton v Derby, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Lincoln: Lincoln v Wrexham, Saturday 21 November — the preview.
The Numbers
- Result: Derby 1–2 Lincoln · League Cup
- Venue: Pride Park · Derby
- Referee: J. Smith
- Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 4): Derby 1 · draws 2 · Lincoln 1 · 2 goals/game
- Recent form: Derby 2W 0D 3L · Lincoln 4W 1D 0L
Derby 1–2 Lincoln (League Cup): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 22 August 2026). See the live track record →
Key Stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 2 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Derby for / against | Line | Lincoln for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.75our book | 2.25 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 4.63 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 5 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 13.63 for · 12.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 12.5 for · 10.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.38 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.63 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 13.88 for · 11.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 12.63 for · 9.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.63 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.5 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
Referee: J. Smith.
The next free picks, by email
The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.
Match Statistics & Details
| Derby | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| 71% | Possession | 29% |
| 8 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 1 | Shots off target | 6 |
| 3 | Blocked shots | 4 |
| 3 | Shots inside the box | 10 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 2 |
| 540 | Passes | 218 |
| 85% | Pass accuracy | 67% |
Derby Player Stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Widell Zetterström | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.3 |
| J. Ward | 95 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.9 |
| S. Langås | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.2 |
| L. Travis | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Y | 7.3 |
| B. Clark | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| C. Morris | 95 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6.6 |
| S. Szmodics | 80 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7.7 |
| C. Taylor | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6.9 |
| O. Fraulo | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.3 |
| C. Blackett-Taylor | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.3 |
| M. Clarke | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| D. Sanderson sub | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| C. Forsyth sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 |
| M. Johnston sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.9 |
| F. Bilbija sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.9 |
| L. Salvesen sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
Lincoln Player Stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Wickens | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| T. Darikwa | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6.9 |
| T. Hamer | 95 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.3 |
| D. Elerewe | 95 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| Ivan Varfolomeev | 95 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7.3 |
| C. McGrandles | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| A. Reach | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | Y | 6.7 |
| B. House | 79 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | Y | 8.3 |
| R. Street | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
| F. Draper | 79 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| D. Jefferies | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7.5 |
| R. Towler sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.9 |
| R. Hackett sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| I. Olaofe sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| M. Melia sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| C. Elder sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | – |
Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.
Form, Head-to-Head & Standings
The numbers behind Derby v Lincoln — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2024-01-20 Lincoln 0–0 Derby
- 2023-12-21 Derby 3–1 Lincoln
- 2023-02-14 Derby 1–1 Lincoln
- 2022-09-13 Lincoln 2–0 Derby
The Full Post-Match Picture
Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What was the model’s pick for Derby v Lincoln?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Derby v Lincoln was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.75 at Betano).
- What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Lincoln?
- In their last 4 meetings, Derby won 1, Lincoln won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Derby and Lincoln?
- Recent form — Derby 2W 0D 3L; Lincoln 4W 1D 0L.
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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
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