BoltonLuton

Bolton v Luton result

Full-time · Bolton 2–3 Luton

League One · · Toughsheet Community Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bolton · Luton

The model’s pre-match pick

Bolton 2–3 Luton — Luton won this League One match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Both teams to score: Yes.

Free pick
Both teams to score: Yes
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: 5 of 7 calls the model rated 70% or more on Both teams to score: Yes landed in the last 90 days (too few for a rate). How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Luton won 3–2 at Toughsheet Community Stadium in League One on Saturday 2 May. Luton have scored in 14 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Luton came from behind: Bolton led 2–1 at half-time. The goals — Luton: Jordan Clark (15’ pen), Hakeem Odoffin (62’, assisted by Liam Walsh) and Shayden Morris (90’); Bolton: Jordi Osei-Tutu (20’, assisted by Amario Cozier-Duberry) and Ibrahim Cissoko (45’, assisted by Ruben Rodrigues).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Shayden Morris’s goal on 90 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Bolton 2.79, Luton 3.59, from 24 shots to 12 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

C. Brook showed seven yellow cards — against 4.0 yellows a game across the last 14 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Bolton: Max Conway (13’), Ibrahim Cissoko (60’), Chris Forino-Joseph (63’) and Joshua Sheehan (78’); Luton: Liam Walsh (35’), Kasey Palmer (63’) and Davy van den Berg (88’).

What it changes

Bolton move down from third to fourth (46 league matches played).

Luton move up from seventh to fifth (46 league matches played).

Bolton are winless in their last three matches in all competitions. Luton are unbeaten in their last 11 matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jordan Clark (Luton) 9.3, Jordi Osei-Tutu (Bolton) 8.9 and Amario Cozier-Duberry (Bolton) 7.3 led the match.

Head-to-head

Luton are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Bolton, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Both teams to score: Yes, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market: 5 of 7 landed in the last 90 days.

Next up

Bolton next host Portsmouth on 21 November 2026.

Luton next host Cambridge United on 14 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Bolton: Bolton v Portsmouth, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Luton: Luton v Cambridge United, Saturday 14 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Bolton 2–3 Luton · League One
  • Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium · Bolton
  • Referee: C. Brook
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 3): Bolton 0 · draws 2 · Luton 1 · 1.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Bolton 1W 3D 1L · Luton 4W 1D 0L

Bolton 2–3 Luton (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 2.13
Goals
against 1.38 / 1 · 3 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
6.25 / 7.5
Corners
against 4.63 / 4.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.63 / 5.88
Shots on target
against 3 / 2.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 1.5
Cards
against 2.25 / 2.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
4 yellows
Referee · C. Brook
22.5 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 14 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameBolton for / againstLineLuton for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8
3our book
2.13 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
6.25 for · 4.63 against n 8
9.5standard
7.5 for · 4.38 against n 8
Shots
15.5 for · 12.75 against n 8
19.5standard
18.25 for · 10.88 against n 8
Shots on target
3.63 for · 3 against n 8
8.5standard
5.88 for · 2.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
9.88 for · 13.25 against n 8
21.5standard
9.88 for · 12.5 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
1.5 for · 2.25 against n 8

Referee: C. Brook — 4 yellow cards a game, 0.21 red cards, 22.5 fouls over 14 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Bolton

Bolton Defensive

Bolton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
G. Johnston n 888.5
0.85/1
0.43/0
—
M. Conway n 867
0.74/0
1.86/4
K. Naismith
Mason Paul James Burstow n 852.5
1.36/0
0.42/0
—
S. Dalby n 884.3
0.95/2
0.94/3
—
E. Toal n 888
0.43/0
0.11/0
K. Naismith
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Bolton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
G. Johnston n 888.5
0.84/2
M. Conway n 867
1.56/3
Mason Paul James Burstow n 852.5
1.74/3
S. Dalby n 884.3
0.96/1
E. Toal n 888
16/2
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Bolton Attacking

Bolton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Johnston n 888.5
0.64/1
00/0
M. Conway n 867
0.31/1
0.21/0
Mason Paul James Burstow n 852.5
2.17/3
0.63/0
S. Dalby n 884.3
0.95/1
0.32/0
E. Toal n 888
0.53/1
0.11/0
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Bolton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bolton before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
G. Johnston n 888.5
00/0
00/0
M. Conway n 867
00/0
00/0
Mason Paul James Burstow n 852.5
0.21/0
0.42/0
S. Dalby n 884.3
0.11/0
0.11/0
E. Toal n 888
0.11/0
00/0
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Luton

Luton Defensive

Luton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Joshua Keeley n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
—
K. Naismith n 890
0.84/1
1.15/2
E. Toal
N. Lonwijk n 890
0.65/0
0.54/0
—
J. Clark n 887.6
0.53/1
0.94/2
—
G. Kodua n 846.1
1.55/1
1.23/1
—
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Luton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Joshua Keeley n 890
00/0
K. Naismith n 890
2.16/4
N. Lonwijk n 890
2.47/6
J. Clark n 887.6
1.97/4
G. Kodua n 846.1
1.76/1
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Luton Attacking

Luton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Joshua Keeley n 890
00/0
00/0
K. Naismith n 890
0.85/1
0.43/0
N. Lonwijk n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
J. Clark n 887.6
1.96/4
0.52/2
G. Kodua n 846.1
1.25/0
0.73/0
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Luton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Joshua Keeley n 890
00/0
00/0
K. Naismith n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
N. Lonwijk n 890
00/0
00/0
J. Clark n 887.6
0.32/0
0.32/0
G. Kodua n 846.1
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
BoltonLuton
56%Possession44%
2.79Expected goals (xG)3.59
24Shots12
12Shots on target5
6Shots off target6
6Blocked shots1
15Shots inside the box10
5Corners3
1Offsides2
17Fouls17
4Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
2Saves10
417Passes318
83%Pass accuracy78%

Bolton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
J. Bonham9000000007.3
J. Osei-Tutu9010220507.5
E. Toal9000002206
C. Forino-Joseph90000004Y6.5
J. Sheehan90001011Y6.7
A. Cozier-Duberry9001442007.6
J. Kenny9000112206.3
M. Conway86000043Y6.3
Mason Paul James Burstow8600531106.7
Ruben Rodrigues7901102106.9
I. Cissoko73102220Y7.2
T. Gale sub1700201006.5
C. Christie sub1400000106.3
J. McAtee sub1400000006.7
K. Dempsey sub1100001006.3

Luton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Joshua Keeley9000000007.9
I. Jones9000002306.5
H. Odoffin9010110007.3
K. Naismith9000002406.3
L. Walsh90010022Y7.3
J. Clark9010210507.5
N. Wells9000320406
M. Andersen8100100107
K. Palmer81001001Y5.9
Emilio Lawrence7300100106.3
J. Richards6100001306.5
S. Morris sub2910110106.6
G. Kodua sub1700001207.3
D. van den Berg sub9000000Y6.3
Ali Al Hamadi sub900100006.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bolton v Luton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
BoltonDLWDD
Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · 2.2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
LutonWWDWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.2 scored / 0.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 3
Bolton 0 · 2 draws · Luton 1 · 1.67 goals/game
  • 2025-11-29 Luton 1–1 Bolton
  • 2024-01-16 Bolton 1–2 Luton
  • 2024-01-07 Luton 0–0 Bolton
League standing · 2025/26
Bolton#5 pos75 pts46 pl+18 GD
Luton#7 pos74 pts46 pl+12 GD
Goals per game
Bolton scored1.52
Luton scored1.48
Bolton conceded1.13
Luton conceded1.22

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Bolton v Luton?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Bolton v Luton was Both teams to score: Yes.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Luton?
In their last 3 meetings, Bolton won 0, Luton won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 1.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bolton and Luton?
Recent form — Bolton 1W 3D 1L; Luton 4W 1D 0L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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