Cardiff v Plymouth result

Full-time · Cardiff 4–0 Plymouth

League One · Sat, 30 Aug 2025 12:30 BST

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

The model’s pre-match pick

Cardiff 4–0 Plymouth — Cardiff won this League One match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.9% of 634 landed (95% range 62.2–69.5%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Cardiff beat Plymouth 4–0 in League One on Saturday 30 August. Cardiff are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions.

The goals

Cardiff led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Cardiff: Ryan Wintle (41’, assisted by Rubin Colwill), Christopher Willock (44’, assisted by Cian Ashford), Rubin Colwill (50’, assisted by Christopher Willock) and Isaak Davies (90’, assisted by Ryan Wintle).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Ryan Wintle’s goal on 41 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Cardiff 0.00, Plymouth 0.00, from 16 shots to 8 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Scott Oldham, England showed four yellow cards — against 4.0 yellows a game across the last 5 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Cardiff: Joel Colwill (34’), Rubin Colwill (42’) and Ronan Kpakio (90’); Plymouth: Matthew Sorinola (21’).

What it changes

Cardiff stay first after this result (six league matches played).

Plymouth move down from 19th to 20th (six league matches played).

Cardiff’s four-goal margin was the biggest of round 6, across 12 matches. Cardiff have scored in six consecutive matches in all competitions. Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in their last five matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Rubin Colwill (Cardiff) 9.6, Bali Mumba (Plymouth) 9.3 and Christopher Willock (Cardiff) 8.8 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 65.9% of the time in the last 90 days (418 of 634).

Next up

Cardiff next host Birmingham on 24 October 2026.

Plymouth next travel to Stevenage on 20 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Cardiff: Cardiff v Birmingham, Saturday 24 October — the preview. Next for Plymouth: Stevenage v Plymouth, Tuesday 20 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Cardiff 4–0 Plymouth · League One
Referee: Scott Oldham, England
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 4): Cardiff 1 · draws 2 · Plymouth 1 · 3.75 goals/game
Recent form: Cardiff 5W 0D 0L · Plymouth 2W 1D 2L

Cardiff 4–0 Plymouth (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 1.13

Goals

against 0.75 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

6.29 / 6.13

Corners

against 3.14 / 4.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

5.29 / 3.5

Shots on target

against 2.71 / 4.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.71 / 2.13

Cards

against 2.14 / 2.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

4 yellows

Referee · Scott Oldham, England

1.6 home / 2.4 away

over 5 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 26 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 26 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Cardiff for / against	Line	Plymouth for / against
Goals scored	1.75 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.13 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.29 for · 3.14 against n 7 Last 5	9.5standard	6.13 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	15.86 for · 12.29 against n 7 Last 5	19.5standard	13.38 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.29 for · 2.71 against n 7 Last 5	8.5standard	3.5 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.86 for · 13 against n 7 Last 5	21.5standard	9.88 for · 13.75 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.71 for · 2.14 against n 7 Last 5	3.5standard	2.13 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: Scott Oldham, England — 4 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 23 fouls over 5 matches (1.6 to the home side, 2.4 to the away side).

Home 1.6Away 2.4

Cardiff

Cardiff — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
I. Davies n 8	21.8	3.1 4/1	1.6 3/0	—
A. Robertson n 8	61.4	2.6 7/4	2.2 6/4	—
Y. Salech n 8	63.1	2.5 7/5	3.2 7/4	L. Tolaj
J. Ralls n 8	58.3	2.1 6/3	0.8 4/0	—
R. Colwill n 8	77.6	1.6 6/3	0.6 2/2	C. Watts

Cardiff — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Y. Salech n 8	63.1	3.6 8/6	1.4 5/2
I. Davies n 8	21.8	3.1 3/2	1 2/0
R. Colwill n 8	77.6	2.6 6/5	1.4 5/4
C. Robinson n 8	37.8	1.8 3/2	0.3 1/0
C. Chambers n 8	52.3	1.7 5/3	1.3 5/1

Cardiff — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
I. Davies n 8	21.8	1 2/0	0.5 1/0
Y. Salech n 8	63.1	0.5 2/1	0.2 1/0
D. Turnbull n 8	46.3	0 0/0	0.7 2/1
R. Colwill n 8	77.6	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
Cian Ashford n 8	67.6	0.3 2/0	0 0/0

Cardiff — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
A. Robertson n 8	61.4	2.4 6/3
Joel Bagan n 8	78.9	2.3 7/5
P. Ng n 8	80.8	2.1 8/5
J. Ralls n 8	58.3	2.1 7/3
I. Davies n 8	21.8	2.1 4/0

Plymouth

Plymouth — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
C. Watts n 8	63.6	3 8/5	2.5 6/5	R. Colwill
L. Tolaj n 8	82.5	2.3 8/6	2 8/5	Y. Salech
B. Ibrahim n 8	68.1	2 8/2	0.7 4/0	—
C. Roberts n 8	48.4	1.9 3/3	0.7 3/0	—
Owen Oseni n 8	34.8	1.9 5/1	1.9 4/2	—

Plymouth — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Paterson n 8	27.1	2.5 2/2	1.2 2/1
L. Tolaj n 8	82.5	2.3 8/4	0.8 3/1
R. Hardie n 8	68	2.2 6/4	1.3 5/2
A. Pepple n 8	46.8	1.9 5/2	1 3/1
C. Watts n 8	63.6	1.8 6/1	0.9 3/1

Plymouth — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Owen Oseni n 8	34.8	1 2/1	0 0/0
C. Watts n 8	63.6	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
A. Benarous n 8	51	0 0/0	0.4 2/0
J. Paterson n 8	27.1	0.4 1/0	0 0/0
V. Palsson n 8	82.6	0 0/0	0.3 2/0

Plymouth — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 26 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
B. Galloway n 8	77	3.9 7/5
A. Benarous n 8	51	3.8 7/3
M. Sorinola n 8	54	3.5 6/5
J. Edwards n 8	46.4	3.2 4/3
M. Boateng n 8	70.5	3 6/4

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Cardiff		Plymouth
55%	Possession	45%
16	Shots	8
10	Shots on target	3
5	Shots off target	3
1	Blocked shots	2
13	Shots inside the box	5
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
14	Fouls	6
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	6
458	Passes	375
85%	Pass accuracy	77%

Cardiff player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
N. Trott	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.3
R. Kpakio	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	Y	7.2
W. Fish	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	7.5
D. Lawlor	90	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.9
Joel Bagan	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	7.2
R. Wintle	90	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	8.6
R. Colwill	90	1	1	4	4	4	1	Y	8.2
J. Colwill	87	0	0	0	0	1	3	Y	6.6
Cian Ashford	67	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	6.6
C. Willock	67	1	1	4	2	2	2	0	8.3
Y. Salech	67	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	6.3
T. Nyakuhwa sub	23	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	7
C. Robinson sub	23	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.5
I. Davies sub	23	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	8.2
P. Ng sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6

Plymouth player stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
L. Ashby-Hammond	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
K. Szűcs	90	0	0	0	5	0	5.9
B. Sarpong-Wiredu	90	0	0	0	1	0	6.2
M. Boateng	90	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
B. Ibrahim	90	1	1	0	2	0	6.5
B. Mumba	90	0	0	0	7	0	7.3
L. Tolaj	90	2	1	2	0	0	6.5
C. Watts	72	1	1	1	0	0	6
A. Mitchell	71	1	0	0	1	0	6.2
M. Sorinola	65	1	0	3	0	Y	5.3
A. Benarous	52	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
A. Pepple sub	38	0	0	1	0	0	6.5
F. Issaka sub	25	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
J. Edwards sub	19	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
Joseph Hatch sub	18	0	0	0	0	0	6.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Cardiff v Plymouth — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

CardiffWWWWW

Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 2 scored / 0.2 conceded per game

PlymouthWLLWD

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 4

Cardiff 1 · 2 draws · Plymouth 1 · 3.75 goals/game

2025-02-22 Plymouth 1–1 Cardiff
2024-10-19 Cardiff 5–0 Plymouth
2024-01-20 Plymouth 3–1 Cardiff
2023-12-26 Cardiff 2–2 Plymouth

League standing · 2025/26

Cardiff#2 pos91 pts46 pl+40 GD

Plymouth#8 pos73 pts46 pl+12 GD

Goals per game

Cardiff scored1.96

Plymouth scored1.63

Cardiff conceded1.09

Plymouth conceded1.37

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Cardiff v Plymouth?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Cardiff v Plymouth was Over 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Plymouth?: In their last 4 meetings, Cardiff won 1, Plymouth won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 3.75 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Cardiff and Plymouth?: Recent form — Cardiff 5W 0D 0L; Plymouth 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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