This Matchweek

CardiffBirmingham

Cardiff v Birmingham result

Full-time · Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham

Championship · · Cardiff City Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Cardiff · Birmingham · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham — Cardiff won this Championship match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.55 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 67.4% of 543 landed (95% range 63.4–71.2%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Cardiff beat Birmingham 1–0 at Cardiff City Stadium in the Championship on Saturday 24 October.

Birmingham have conceded 13 goals, the fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games).

The goals

Cardiff led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Cardiff: Yousef Salech (32’, assisted by Ollie Tanner).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Yousef Salech’s goal on 32 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Cardiff 2.97, Birmingham 1.04, from 16 shots to 7 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Tim Robinson, England showed three yellow cards — against 5.1 yellows a game across the last 8 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Cardiff: Joel Bagan (82’); Birmingham: J. Solis (50’) and Christoph Klarer (81’).

What it changes

Cardiff have scored 22 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games). Cardiff have conceded 23 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Birmingham have scored 26 goals, the fifth-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 14 games).

Cardiff are unbeaten in their last three matches in all competitions. Cardiff have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jack Moylan (Cardiff) 6.4, James Beadle (Birmingham) 6.3 and Cian Ashford (Cardiff) 5.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Cardiff next host Burnley on 7 November 2026.

Birmingham next host Swansea on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Cardiff: Cardiff v Burnley, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Birmingham: Birmingham v Swansea, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham · Championship
  • Venue: Cardiff City Stadium · Caerdydd
  • Referee: Tim Robinson, England
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Cardiff 4 · draws 1 · Birmingham 1 · 1.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Cardiff 2W 1D 2L · Birmingham 4W 1D 0L

Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham (Championship): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 6 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 2
Goals
against 1.5 / 1 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.25
over 8 matches
6.25 / 5.25
Corners
against 4.88 / 5.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
5.88 / 5.63
Shots on target
against 5.63 / 3.63 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.25 / 2.38
Cards
against 1.88 / 2.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
5.13 yellows
Referee · Tim Robinson, England
26 fouls a game
Home and away split · Pro
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 17 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 17 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameCardiff for / againstLineBirmingham for / against
Goals scored
1.63 for · 1.5 against n 8
3.25our book
2 for · 1 against n 8
Corners won
6.25 for · 4.88 against n 8
9.5standard
5.25 for · 5.25 against n 8
Shots
16.88 for · 15.88 against n 8
19.5standard
15.5 for · 12.88 against n 8
Shots on target
5.88 for · 5.63 against n 8
8.5standard
5.63 for · 3.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
10 for · 13.13 against n 8
21.5standard
11.88 for · 9.88 against n 8
Cards shown
2.25 for · 1.88 against n 8
3.5standard
2.38 for · 2.13 against n 8

Referee: Tim Robinson, England — 5.13 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 26 fouls over 8 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Cardiff

Cardiff Goalkeeper

Cardiff — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
N. Trott13901170 min443.4 /90211.6 /9000 /90
Cardiff — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
N. Trott n 890
3.88/6

Cardiff Defensive

Cardiff — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Joel Bagan13881149 min282.2 /90110.9 /90110.9 /90574.5 /90100.8 /9020.2 /90
P. Ng12901080 min221.8 /90121 /9050.4 /90675.6 /90161.3 /9050.4 /90
G. Osho1189975 min111 /9070.6 /90151.4 /90363.3 /9050.5 /9000 /90
K. Bielik783583 min71.1 /90101.5 /9040.6 /90456.9 /9060.9 /9010.2 /90
C. Scanlon551253 min20.7 /9072.5 /9000 /90145 /9020.7 /9000 /90
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Cardiff — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
N. Trott n 890
00/0
0.43/0
—
A. Robertson n 889.8
0.85/1
1.15/3
—
Joel Bagan n 887.4
14/3
0.65/0
A. Cochrane
J. Moylan n 885.1
0.95/1
2.18/5
—
C. Willock n 861.1
0.42/0
0.94/1
—
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Cardiff — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Robertson n 889.8
1.15/2
Joel Bagan n 887.4
2.37/4
J. Moylan n 885.1
1.37/2
C. Willock n 861.1
0.62/1
P. Ng n 890
28/4
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Cardiff Attacking

Cardiff — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
Y. Salech1081813 min50.6 /9020.2 /90262.9 /90171.9 /9080.9 /9020.2 /90
I. Davies441163 min00 /9000 /9021.1 /9000 /9000 /9000 /90
C. Robinson351154 min10.6 /9000 /9031.8 /9031.8 /9010.6 /9010.6 /90
A. Robertson13891158 min00 /9000 /9070.5 /9030.2 /90221.7 /9060.5 /90
J. Moylan1374968 min70.7 /9030.3 /90312.9 /90161.5 /90141.3 /90131.2 /90
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Cardiff — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
N. Trott n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Robertson n 889.8
0.54/0
0.43/0
Joel Bagan n 887.4
0.32/0
0.11/0
J. Moylan n 885.1
2.98/5
1.66/3
C. Willock n 861.1
0.94/1
0.63/0
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Cardiff — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Cardiff before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
N. Trott n 890
00/0
00/0
A. Robertson n 889.8
00/0
00/0
Joel Bagan n 887.4
00/0
00/0
J. Moylan n 885.1
0.73/2
0.43/0
C. Willock n 861.1
00/0
0.21/0
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Birmingham

Birmingham Goalkeeper

Birmingham — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
J. Beadle12911086 min302.5 /90110.9 /9000 /90
R. Allsop19090 min22 /9066 /9000 /90
Birmingham — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
J. Beadle n 890
2.56/4
R. Allsop n 890
2.46/3

Birmingham Defensive

Birmingham — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
C. Klarer13901176 min211.6 /90211.6 /9090.7 /901017.7 /90201.5 /9020.2 /90
B. Osayi-Samuel13851102 min282.3 /9060.5 /9020.2 /90675.5 /90121 /9050.4 /90
P. Neumann13851101 min201.6 /90292.4 /9070.6 /90826.7 /90121 /9030.2 /90
A. Cochrane13771002 min191.7 /9060.5 /9050.4 /90423.8 /90100.9 /9030.3 /90
E. Laird429114 min43.2 /9043.2 /9000 /90107.9 /9043.2 /9000 /90
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Birmingham — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
C. Klarer n 890
28/4
0.11/0
—
B. Osayi-Samuel n 886.5
1.26/3
1.76/5
—
P. Neumann n 890
0.94/2
17/1
—
J. Stansfield n 886.1
1.65/3
0.11/0
—
A. Cochrane n 882.3
1.25/3
1.26/2
Joel Bagan
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Birmingham — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
C. Klarer n 890
1.86/4
B. Osayi-Samuel n 886.5
2.16/4
P. Neumann n 890
1.87/6
J. Stansfield n 886.1
1.76/3
A. Cochrane n 882.3
1.47/2
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Birmingham Attacking

Birmingham — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
A. Priske1276916 min50.5 /9010.1 /90202 /90101 /9020.2 /9010.1 /90
D. Gray931283 min41.3 /9000 /9072.2 /9051.6 /9031 /9051.6 /90
L. Vázquez443173 min00 /9000 /9031.6 /9010.5 /9021 /9000 /90
M. Ducksch22040 min00 /9000 /9000 /9000 /9012.3 /9000 /90
J. Stansfield13791022 min10.1 /9010.1 /90171.5 /90111 /90100.9 /9070.6 /90
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Birmingham — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
C. Klarer n 890
0.52/1
0.11/0
B. Osayi-Samuel n 886.5
0.31/1
00/0
P. Neumann n 890
0.53/1
0.32/0
J. Stansfield n 886.1
1.66/5
15/3
A. Cochrane n 882.3
0.11/0
0.11/0
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Birmingham — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Birmingham before kick-off, to 17 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
C. Klarer n 890
00/0
00/0
B. Osayi-Samuel n 886.5
00/0
00/0
P. Neumann n 890
00/0
00/0
J. Stansfield n 886.1
0.11/0
0.11/0
A. Cochrane n 882.3
00/0
0.11/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
CardiffBirmingham
51%Possession49%
2.97Expected goals (xG)1.04
16Shots7
4Shots on target2
2Shots off target4
10Blocked shots1
10Shots inside the box7
3Corners3
2Offsides4
10Fouls19
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Saves3
415Passes388
73%Pass accuracy72%

Cardiff Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Joel Bagan90000012Y7.3
J. Colwill9000001107.2
W. Fish9000001008.3
P. Ng9000000208.2
A. Robertson9000002008
N. Trott9000000007.3
Y. Salech9010421007.2
Cian Ashford8900220306.9
J. Moylan8700003307.3
O. Tanner6801002107
C. Scanlon6800000106.9
R. Kpakio sub2200000006.6
C. Willock sub2200001307
D. Turnbull sub800000006.5
I. Davies sub10000000–

Birmingham Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Cochrane9000101006.5
T. Iwata9000000106.3
C. Klarer90000002Y6.6
P. Neumann9000000007.6
J. Stansfield9000110005.6
J. Beadle9000000007.2
B. Osayi-Samuel7800000006.2
L. Millar7000001306.9
Carlos Vicente6400100006.2
J. Solis64000001Y6.3
L. Vázquez6400000006.2
M. Bird sub2600001006.9
M. Ducksch sub2600201006.3
P. Roberts sub2600000306.6
D. Gray sub2000111007.2
E. Laird sub1200000106.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Cardiff v Birmingham — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
CardiffLWLWD
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
BirminghamWDWWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.4 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Cardiff 4 · 1 draw · Birmingham 1 · 1.83 goals/game
  • 2024-04-10 Birmingham 0–1 Cardiff
  • 2023-12-13 Cardiff 0–1 Birmingham
  • 2023-08-29 Birmingham 1–3 Cardiff
  • 2023-02-14 Birmingham 0–2 Cardiff
  • 2022-08-13 Cardiff 1–0 Birmingham
  • 2022-04-30 Cardiff 1–1 Birmingham
League standing · 2026/27
Cardiff#18 pos15 pts14 pl-1 GD
Birmingham#3 pos26 pts14 pl+13 GD
Goals per game
Cardiff scored1.57
Birmingham scored1.86
Cardiff conceded1.64
Birmingham conceded0.93

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Cardiff v Birmingham?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Cardiff v Birmingham was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.55 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Birmingham?
In their last 6 meetings, Cardiff won 4, Birmingham won 1 and there was 1 draw, averaging 1.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Cardiff and Birmingham?
Recent form — Cardiff 2W 1D 2L; Birmingham 4W 1D 0L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

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