Leyton Orient v Northampton result

Full-time · Leyton Orient 0–1 Northampton

League One · Sat, 30 Aug 2025 15:00 BST · Brisbane Road

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Leyton Orient · Northampton · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Leyton Orient 0–1 Northampton — Northampton won this League One match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 52.6% of 171 landed (95% range 45.2–60%); it had given them 77.4% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Northampton won 1–0 at Brisbane Road in League One on Saturday 30 August.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Northampton: Samuel Hoskins (58’, assisted by Tyrese Fornah).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Samuel Hoskins’s goal on 58 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Leyton Orient 0.00, Northampton 0.00, from 7 shots to 8 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

Jacob Miles, England showed five yellow cards — against 4.8 yellows a game across the last 8 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Leyton Orient: T. Adaramola (40’), Thomas James (45+2’), Joshua Koroma (54’), Omar Beckles (90+5’) and A. Connolly (90+6’).

What it changes

Leyton Orient move down from 13th to 16th (six league matches played).

Northampton move up from 18th to 15th (six league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Samuel Hoskins (Northampton) 6.6, Tyrese Fornah (Northampton) 5.0 and T. Adaramola (Leyton Orient) 4.6 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call.

Next up

Leyton Orient next travel to Reading on 21 October 2026.

Northampton next host Tranmere on 20 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Leyton Orient: Reading v Leyton Orient, Wednesday 21 October — the preview. Next for Northampton: Northampton v Tranmere, Tuesday 20 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Leyton Orient 0–1 Northampton · League One
Venue: Brisbane Road · London
Referee: Jacob Miles, England
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Leyton Orient 1 · draws 2 · Northampton 3 · 2.67 goals/game
Recent form: Leyton Orient 2W 1D 2L · Northampton 1W 1D 3L

Leyton Orient 0–1 Northampton (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

0.88 / 0.5

Goals

against 1.5 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

5 / 4.14

Corners

against 4.63 / 4.29 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

3.38 / 2.86

Shots on target

against 4.38 / 3.14 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

1.63 / 1.43

Cards

against 1.88 / 2.86 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 23 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 23 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Leyton Orient for / against	Line	Northampton for / against
Goals scored	0.88 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.14 for · 4.29 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	12.75 for · 12.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	9 for · 11.71 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	3.38 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	2.86 for · 3.14 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	13 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.71 for · 13.43 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	1.63 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.43 for · 2.86 against n 7 Last 5

Referee: Jacob Miles, England.

Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
I. El Mizouni n 8	46	2.9 5/3	0.2 1/0	—
A. Abdulai n 8	32.8	2.4 4/1	2.1 5/1	—
S. Clare n 8	73.5	2.1 5/4	1.4 6/3	—
O. Beckles n 8	92.8	1.7 7/5	0.6 3/2	Jack Perkins
D. Agyei n 8	60.5	1.5 4/3	0.9 3/2	—

Leyton Orient — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
A. Connolly n 8	69.3	2.6 5/4	1.1 4/2
D. Jaiyesimi n 8	41.5	2.2 4/3	0.8 3/0
D. Agyei n 8	60.5	1.9 5/3	0.9 3/1
J. Koroma n 8	82.9	1.8 7/3	1.4 6/2
J. Donley n 8	75.4	1.3 6/3	0.6 4/0

Leyton Orient — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Koroma n 8	82.9	0.8 6/0	0 0/0
O. O'Neill n 8	71.9	0.3 2/0	0.5 3/0
D. Agyei n 8	60.5	0.4 1/1	0.4 2/0
E. Galbraith n 8	83.8	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
J. Donley n 8	75.4	0 0/0	0.3 2/0

Leyton Orient — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Currie n 8	50.8	3.8 6/4
J. Donley n 8	75.4	3.3 7/7
I. El Mizouni n 8	46	2.7 5/3
M. Craig n 8	66.1	2.6 6/5
R. Edmonds-Green n 8	91.9	2.3 8/4

Northampton

Northampton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Jack Perkins n 4	50.3	2.7 3/2	0.9 1/1	O. Beckles
T. Magloire n 8	46.3	2.2 4/4	0.5 2/0	—
D. Costelloe n 8	59.1	2.1 5/3	1.1 5/1	—
J. Wormleighton n 4	42	2.1 2/2	2.7 2/1	—
C. McGeehan n 8	80.4	2 6/5	1.4 5/2	—

Northampton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
E. List n 8	44.1	1.8 5/2	0.3 1/0
T. Fosu n 8	41.4	1.6 5/1	1.4 4/1
C. McGeehan n 8	80.4	1.5 7/3	0.8 6/0
S. Hoskins n 8	77	1.2 4/2	0.4 1/1
D. Costelloe n 8	59.1	1.1 4/2	0.2 1/0

Northampton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
M. Pinnock n 8	86.1	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
S. Hoskins n 8	77	0.3 1/1	0 0/0
N. Guinness-Walker n 8	72	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
T. Fosu n 8	41.4	0.3 1/0	0 0/0
M. Dyche n 8	69.4	0.2 1/0	0 0/0

Northampton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 23 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
T. Magloire n 8	46.3	3.2 6/4
N. Guinness-Walker n 8	72	3.1 6/5
J. Burroughs n 8	57.3	3.1 7/5
Ben Perry n 8	69.9	2.9 7/6
J. Wormleighton n 4	42	2.7 3/2

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Leyton Orient		Northampton
66%	Possession	34%
7	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	4
2	Shots off target	3
1	Blocked shots	1
5	Shots inside the box	7
6	Corners	6
2	Offsides	0
17	Fouls	9
5	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	4
458	Passes	222
77%	Pass accuracy	59%

Leyton Orient player stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Tommy Simkin	90	0	0	1	0	0	7.2
T. James	90	1	0	0	1	Y	6.3
O. Beckles	90	0	0	1	2	Y	7.9
D. Happe	90	1	0	0	1	0	7
S. Clare	90	0	0	0	2	0	6.3
J. Koroma	90	1	1	0	3	Y	6.3
A. Connolly	90	2	2	0	0	Y	6.2
T. Bakinson	78	0	0	0	2	0	6.6
T. Adaramola	72	0	0	0	6	Y	6.3
O. O'Neill	72	0	0	1	0	0	5.9
D. Jaiyesimi	59	1	1	0	2	0	6.3
J. Moorhouse sub	31	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
M. Craig sub	18	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
D. Mitchell sub	18	0	0	1	0	0	6.7
Charlie Gerard Richard Wellens sub	12	0	0	0	0	0	6.3

Northampton player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
L. Burge	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.9
C. McCarthy	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.9
M. Dyche	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.3
S. Hoskins	90	1	0	1	1	1	1	7.3
D. Campbell	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	7.5
T. Taylor	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	7.2
C. McGeehan	90	0	0	1	0	1	0	6.3
E. Wheatley	80	0	0	4	3	0	4	6.5
Jack Perkins	72	0	0	0	0	1	3	7.5
T. Fornah	71	0	1	0	0	1	1	6.9
N. Guinness-Walker	47	0	0	0	0	0	1	7
J. Thorniley sub	43	0	0	0	0	0	2	7
E. List sub	19	0	0	1	0	0	1	6.6
M. Forbes sub	18	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
T. Eaves sub	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Leyton Orient v Northampton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Leyton OrientWLDWL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

NorthamptonDLLLW

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.4 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Leyton Orient 1 · 2 draws · Northampton 3 · 2.67 goals/game

2025-03-08 Leyton Orient 1–2 Northampton
2024-10-19 Northampton 1–0 Leyton Orient
2024-02-13 Leyton Orient 4–3 Northampton
2023-10-24 Northampton 2–2 Leyton Orient
2023-01-02 Northampton 1–0 Leyton Orient
2022-10-15 Leyton Orient 0–0 Northampton

League standing · 2025/26

Leyton Orient#20 pos52 pts46 pl-12 GD

Northampton#24 pos35 pts46 pl-35 GD

Goals per game

Leyton Orient scored1.28

Northampton scored0.85

Leyton Orient conceded1.54

Northampton conceded1.61

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Leyton Orient v Northampton?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Leyton Orient v Northampton was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Northampton?: In their last 6 meetings, Leyton Orient won 1, Northampton won 3 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Leyton Orient and Northampton?: Recent form — Leyton Orient 2W 1D 2L; Northampton 1W 1D 3L.

Today’s boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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