Luton v Leyton Orient result

Full-time · Luton 1–1 Leyton Orient

League One · Sat, 05 Sep 2026 15:00 BST · Kenilworth Road

Updated 8 Nov 2026, 10:47 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Luton · Leyton Orient

The model’s pre-match pick

Luton 1–1 Leyton Orient — this League One match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.62 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.5% of 505 landed (95% range 64.3–72.4%); it had given them 75.9% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Luton and Leyton Orient drew 1–1 at Kenilworth Road in League One on Saturday 5 September. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Luton out-shot Leyton Orient 25 to 7 and created the better chances, 2.21 xG to 0.56 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Luton: Jamie Donley (25’, assisted by Gideon Kodua); Leyton Orient: J. Kabia (34’, assisted by Demetri Mitchell).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with J. Kabia’s goal on 34 minutes.

Discipline

O. Yates showed six yellow cards — against 5.1 yellows a game across the last 10 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Luton: George Johnston (57’) and Daniel Gore (86’); Leyton Orient: J. Kabia (42’), Joseph Olowu (53’), Yusuf Akhamrich (57’) and Isaac Hayden (73’).

What it changes

Luton stay seventh after this result (five league matches played). Luton have scored 11 goals, the fifth-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). Luton have conceded 11 goals, the fifth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Leyton Orient move down from sixth to eighth (five league matches played). Leyton Orient have scored 10 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 5 games, ranked per game). Leyton Orient have conceded six goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jamie Donley (Luton) 7.8, Gideon Kodua (Luton) 7.1 and Nathan Baxter (Leyton Orient) 5.6 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Luton next host Cambridge United on 14 November 2026.

Leyton Orient next travel to Doncaster on 14 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Luton: Luton v Cambridge United, Saturday 14 November — the preview. Next for Leyton Orient: Doncaster v Leyton Orient, Saturday 14 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Luton 1–1 Leyton Orient · League One
Venue: Kenilworth Road · Luton, Bedfordshire
Referee: O. Yates
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 2): Luton 1 · draws 1 · Leyton Orient 0 · 2.5 goals/game
Recent form: Luton 2W 1D 2L · Leyton Orient 2W 1D 2L

Luton 1–1 Leyton Orient (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 8 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

2.25 / 1.63

Goals

against 1.88 / 1 · 3 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

5.38 / 4.57

Corners

against 5.13 / 4.43 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

4.88 / 4

Shots on target

against 5 / 4.86 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2 / 2.29

Cards

against 2.38 / 1.86 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

5.1 yellows

Referee · O. Yates

25.6 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 10 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 2 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 2 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Luton for / against	Line	Leyton Orient for / against
Goals scored	2.25 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	1.63 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.38 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.57 for · 4.43 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	12.25 for · 15.5 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.71 for · 13.14 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	4.88 for · 5 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4 for · 4.86 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	11 for · 14.38 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	14 for · 12.71 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.29 for · 1.86 against n 7 Last 5

Referee: O. Yates — 5.1 yellow cards a game, 0.1 red cards, 25.6 fouls over 10 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Luton

Luton Goalkeeper

Luton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Joshua Keeley	6	90540 min	142.3 /90	122 /90	00 /90

Luton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Joshua Keeley n 8	90	3.1 5/2

Luton Defensive

Luton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
G. Johnston	6	90540 min	40.7 /90	20.3 /90	81.3 /90	376.2 /90	30.5 /90	10.2 /90
I. Jones	6	58349 min	51.3 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	184.6 /90	51.3 /90	10.3 /90
B. Benagr	6	46277 min	41.3 /90	41.3 /90	10.3 /90	82.6 /90	20.6 /90	00 /90
H. Odoffin	5	90449 min	91.8 /90	122.4 /90	61.2 /90	306 /90	51 /90	00 /90
K. Naismith	4	79315 min	123.4 /90	30.9 /90	10.3 /90	308.6 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90
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Luton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
G. Johnston n 6	90	0.5 3/0	1 4/1	J. Olowu
Joshua Keeley n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
L. Walsh n 8	87.4	1.2 6/1	1.8 7/4	P. Chinedu
K. Palmer n 8	77.9	0.9 5/1	2.2 8/5	—
J. Richards n 8	61.9	0.7 3/1	2.4 7/3	I. El Mizouni
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Luton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
G. Johnston n 6	90	0.7 3/1
L. Walsh n 8	87.4	1.7 7/3
K. Palmer n 8	77.9	1 5/1
J. Richards n 8	61.9	2.2 6/4
I. Jones n 8	66.1	2.2 6/3
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Luton Attacking

Luton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
N. Wells	5	63315 min	51.4 /90	10.3 /90	123.4 /90	82.3 /90	20.6 /90	00 /90
C. Marshall	5	43213 min	20.8 /90	00 /90	41.7 /90	31.3 /90	20.8 /90	20.8 /90
G. Kodua	5	36181 min	10.5 /90	00 /90	42 /90	10.5 /90	21 /90	21 /90
S. Morris	1	2222 min	00 /90	00 /90	14.1 /90	14.1 /90	00 /90	14.1 /90
L. Walsh	6	87519 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	91.6 /90	30.5 /90
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Luton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
G. Johnston n 6	90	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
Joshua Keeley n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Walsh n 8	87.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Palmer n 8	77.9	2 8/5	0.7 4/1
J. Richards n 8	61.9	1.1 4/1	0.4 2/0
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Luton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
G. Johnston n 6	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Joshua Keeley n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Walsh n 8	87.4	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
K. Palmer n 8	77.9	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0
J. Richards n 8	61.9	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
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Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient Goalkeeper

Leyton Orient — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Noah Phillips	3	76228 min	83.2 /90	31.2 /90	00 /90
N. Baxter	3	76227 min	52 /90	20.8 /90	00 /90

Leyton Orient — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leyton Orient before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Noah Phillips n 3	76	3.2 3/1
N. Baxter n 3	75.7	2 2/1

Leyton Orient Defensive

Leyton Orient — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Olowu	5	91455 min	40.8 /90	40.8 /90	40.8 /90	254.9 /90	40.8 /90	00 /90
F. Stevens	5	89447 min	163.2 /90	51 /90	20.4 /90	346.8 /90	40.8 /90	30.6 /90
P. Chinedu	5	87435 min	40.8 /90	10.2 /90	00 /90	245 /90	122.5 /90	10.2 /90
J. Morris	3	44132 min	32 /90	32 /90	10.7 /90	96.1 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90
S. Boniface	2	69138 min	10.7 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90	63.9 /90	32 /90	00 /90
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Leyton Orient — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leyton Orient before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Olowu n 5	91	0.8 3/1	0.4 2/0	G. Johnston
F. Stevens n 5	89.4	0.8 3/1	0.8 4/0	—
I. El Mizouni n 8	76.6	0.9 5/1	0.6 4/0	J. Richards
P. Chinedu n 5	87	2.5 4/4	1.4 4/3	L. Walsh
I. Hayden n 5	85	0.8 3/1	0.6 3/0	—
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Leyton Orient — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leyton Orient before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Olowu n 5	91	0.8 3/1
F. Stevens n 5	89.4	3.2 5/3
I. El Mizouni n 8	76.6	3.2 7/6
P. Chinedu n 5	87	0.8 3/1
I. Hayden n 5	85	0.8 3/1
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Leyton Orient Attacking

Leyton Orient — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Jaze Kabia	5	67335 min	20.5 /90	20.5 /90	71.9 /90	41.1 /90	61.6 /90	10.3 /90
N. Oyekunle	2	1938 min	12.4 /90	00 /90	12.4 /90	12.4 /90	00 /90	00 /90
I. El Mizouni	5	89445 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	71.4 /90	20.4 /90	00 /90	61.2 /90
I. Hayden	5	85425 min	00 /90	00 /90	51.1 /90	00 /90	20.4 /90	20.4 /90
Y. Akhamrich	5	78392 min	30.7 /90	10.2 /90	133 /90	92.1 /90	30.7 /90	71.6 /90
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Leyton Orient — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leyton Orient before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Olowu n 5	91	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
F. Stevens n 5	89.4	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
I. El Mizouni n 8	76.6	1.3 6/3	0.3 2/0
P. Chinedu n 5	87	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
I. Hayden n 5	85	1.1 3/2	0 0/0
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Leyton Orient — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leyton Orient before kick-off, to 2 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Olowu n 5	91	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
F. Stevens n 5	89.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
I. El Mizouni n 8	76.6	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
P. Chinedu n 5	87	0 0/0	0 0/0
I. Hayden n 5	85	0 0/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Luton		Leyton Orient
53%	Possession	47%
2.21	Expected goals (xG)	0.56
25	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	3
6	Shots off target	3
11	Blocked shots	1
15	Shots inside the box	5
7	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
9	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	4
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	6
477	Passes	417
82%	Pass accuracy	76%

Luton Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Joshua Keeley	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
J. Richards	90	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.4
H. Odoffin	90	0	0	3	1	0	1	0	6.8
I. Jones	90	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	6.6
G. Johnston	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	Y	6.7
M. Andersen	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
G. Kodua	83	0	1	4	2	4	0	0	7.5
H. Fox	69	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.1
N. Wells	61	0	0	4	3	0	1	0	6.3
L. Walsh	61	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.5
J. Donley	61	1	0	7	2	2	1	0	8.1
K. Palmer	29	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	6.3
C. Marshall	29	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	7
Daniel Gore	29	0	0	1	0	1	1	Y	6.2
H. Ashby	21	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
T. Mendel-Idowu	7	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.4

Leyton Orient Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
N. Baxter	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.6
Charlie Gerard Richard Wellens	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.2
F. Stevens	90	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	6.1
J. Olowu	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	Y	6.3
W. Forrester	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
I. El Mizouni	90	0	0	1	1	1	5	0	7.2
P. Chinedu	83	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
Y. Akhamrich	83	0	0	0	0	1	1	Y	6.1
D. Mitchell	82	0	1	2	0	1	2	0	6.7
Jaze Kabia	76	1	0	2	1	0	1	Y	7.2
I. Hayden	76	0	0	0	0	0	3	Y	6.2
J. Kabia	76	1	0	2	1	0	1	Y	7.5
N. Oyekunle	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
S. Clare	14	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.4
T. Springett	8	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.6
A. Dobra	7	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.9
T. Archibald	7	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.1

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Luton v Leyton Orient — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

LutonWDLLW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

Leyton OrientLWDLW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.8 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 2

Luton 1 · 1 draw · Leyton Orient 0 · 2.5 goals/game

2025-12-29 Luton 3–0 Leyton Orient
2025-12-09 Leyton Orient 1–1 Luton

League standing · 2026/27

Luton#4 pos24 pts14 pl+6 GD

Leyton Orient#14 pos17 pts13 pl+5 GD

Goals per game

Luton scored1.93

Leyton Orient scored1.46

Luton conceded1.5

Leyton Orient conceded1.08

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Luton v Leyton Orient?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Luton v Leyton Orient was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.62 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Luton and Leyton Orient?: In their last 2 meetings, Luton won 1, Leyton Orient won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Luton and Leyton Orient?: Recent form — Luton 2W 1D 2L; Leyton Orient 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 8 Nov 2026, 10:47 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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