LutonNorthampton

Luton v Northampton result

Full-time · Luton 2–1 Northampton

League One ·

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Luton · Northampton

The model’s pre-match pick

Luton 2–1 Northampton — Luton won this League One match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 79.1% of 273 landed (95% range 73.9–83.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Luton beat Northampton 2–1 in League One on Wednesday 15 April. Luton have scored in 10 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Northampton: Samuel Hoskins (31’, assisted by T. Eaves); Luton: Liam Walsh (43’, assisted by Emilio Lawrence) and Kallum Naismith (85’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Kallum Naismith’s goal on 85 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Luton 0.00, Northampton 0.00, from 25 shots to 12 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

J. Durkin showed five yellow cards — against 5.3 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Luton: N. Lonwijk (90+1’) and Joshua Keeley (90+4’); Northampton: Cameron McGeehan (62’), Conor McCarthy (76’) and Jonathan Guthrie (77’).

What it changes

Luton stay seventh after this result (42 league matches played). Luton have scored 68 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games). Luton have conceded 56 goals, the seventh-fewest of the 24 clubs.

Northampton move down from 23rd to 24th (42 league matches played). Northampton have scored 39 goals, the second-fewest of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games). Northampton have conceded 74 goals, the most of the 24 clubs.

Luton are unbeaten in their last seven matches in all competitions. Northampton are winless in their last 12 matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Liam Walsh (Luton) 10.9, Kallum Naismith (Luton) 9.3 and Emilio Lawrence (Luton) 6.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Luton to win, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Luton next host Forest Green on 7 November 2026.

Northampton next travel to York on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Luton: Luton v Forest Green, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Northampton: York v Northampton, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Luton 2–1 Northampton · League One
  • Referee: J. Durkin
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 1): Luton 1 · draws 0 · Northampton 0 · 1 goals/game
  • Recent form: Luton 4W 1D 0L · Northampton 0W 0D 5L

Luton 2–1 Northampton (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.88 / 0.5
Goals
against 1.25 / 1.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
5.88 / 4.75
Corners
against 4.75 / 4.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.75 / 2.63
Shots on target
against 3.88 / 5.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.75 / 1.25
Cards
against 2.25 / 1.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 6 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 6 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameLuton for / againstLineNorthampton for / against
Goals scored
1.88 for · 1.25 against n 8
2.5standard
0.5 for · 1.88 against n 8
Corners won
5.88 for · 4.75 against n 8
9.5standard
4.75 for · 4.88 against n 8
Shots
14.88 for · 10.88 against n 8
19.5standard
8.63 for · 13.5 against n 8
Shots on target
4.75 for · 3.88 against n 8
8.5standard
2.63 for · 5.13 against n 8
Fouls committed
11.75 for · 15.25 against n 8
21.5standard
11.25 for · 10.63 against n 8
Cards shown
1.75 for · 2.25 against n 8
3.5standard
1.25 for · 1.38 against n 8

Referee: J. Durkin.

Luton

Luton Defensive

Luton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Joshua Keeley n 890
0.11/0
0.63/2
—
J. Clark n 888.6
0.64/1
14/2
S. Hoskins
N. Lonwijk n 888.8
1.16/2
0.43/0
N. Guinness-Walker
G. Kodua n 854.5
0.84/0
1.74/2
—
K. Naismith n 890
0.95/1
1.14/2
N. Guinness-Walker
See more players · Pro

Try Pro for £1, then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Luton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Joshua Keeley n 890
00/0
J. Clark n 888.6
1.87/4
N. Lonwijk n 888.8
2.27/5
G. Kodua n 854.5
1.96/3
K. Naismith n 890
1.86/3
See more players · Pro

Luton Attacking

Luton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Joshua Keeley n 890
00/0
00/0
J. Clark n 888.6
1.76/3
0.63/2
N. Lonwijk n 888.8
0.42/1
0.32/0
G. Kodua n 854.5
15/0
0.84/0
K. Naismith n 890
0.95/2
0.43/0
See more players · Pro
Luton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Luton before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Joshua Keeley n 890
00/0
00/0
J. Clark n 888.6
0.32/0
0.32/0
N. Lonwijk n 888.8
0.11/0
00/0
G. Kodua n 854.5
00/0
0.21/0
K. Naismith n 890
0.11/0
0.11/0
See more players · Pro

Northampton

Northampton Defensive

Northampton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Northampton before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
T. Taylor n 879.3
1.36/3
1.16/2
—
D. Campbell n 876.6
0.74/1
0.64/0
—
S. Hoskins n 861.8
0.95/0
1.14/2
J. Clark
N. Guinness-Walker n 872.8
1.15/1
1.13/2
K. Naismith
T. Fornah n 860.8
0.63/0
1.35/2
—
See more players · Pro
Northampton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Northampton before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
T. Taylor n 879.3
1.66/4
D. Campbell n 876.6
2.58/4
S. Hoskins n 861.8
1.34/2
N. Guinness-Walker n 872.8
2.97/7
T. Fornah n 860.8
0.63/0
See more players · Pro

Northampton Attacking

Northampton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Northampton before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
T. Taylor n 879.3
0.63/1
0.11/0
D. Campbell n 876.6
0.42/1
00/0
S. Hoskins n 861.8
0.42/0
0.21/0
N. Guinness-Walker n 872.8
0.32/0
00/0
T. Fornah n 860.8
00/0
00/0
See more players · Pro
Northampton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Northampton before kick-off, to 6 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
T. Taylor n 879.3
00/0
00/0
D. Campbell n 876.6
00/0
0.11/0
S. Hoskins n 861.8
00/0
00/0
N. Guinness-Walker n 872.8
00/0
00/0
T. Fornah n 860.8
00/0
0.21/0
See more players · Pro

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LutonNorthampton
59%Possession41%
25Shots12
5Shots on target3
7Shots off target2
13Blocked shots7
16Shots inside the box10
11Corners5
1Offsides2
7Fouls15
2Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
2Saves3
442Passes320
83%Pass accuracy73%

Luton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Joshua Keeley90000000Y6.3
N. Lonwijk90001110Y6.6
M. Andersen9000000007.3
K. Naismith9010113208.5
J. Johnson9000002507.6
K. Palmer9000211106.9
L. Walsh8910117308.5
J. Clark8200301306.7
Emilio Lawrence8201002107.2
N. Wells6600002006.7
J. Richards4500000006.6
S. Morris sub4500310207.7
Ali Al Hamadi sub2400100006.3
G. Kodua sub800000006.5
D. van den Berg sub800000106.3
G. Saville sub10000010–

Northampton Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
L. Burge9000000007.7
M. Dyche9000000106.6
J. Guthrie90000001Y6.9
N. Guinness-Walker9000002206.3
C. McGeehan90000002Y6.2
D. Campbell9000001306.5
T. Eaves8201113106.5
S. Hoskins8210221007.6
T. Fornah7200101006.6
M. Jacobs7200000207
J. Burroughs7100000506.6
C. McCarthy sub19001000Y6.2
E. List sub1800000106.5
K. Simon-Swyer sub1800000006.2
T. Taylor sub800000006.5
J. Evans sub800000106.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Luton v Northampton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LutonWWDWW
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · 2.2 scored / 1 conceded per game
NorthamptonLLLLL
Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · 0.6 scored / 2.4 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 1
Luton 1 · 0 draws · Northampton 0 · 1 goals/game
  • 2025-10-25 Northampton 0–1 Luton
League standing · 2025/26
Luton#7 pos74 pts46 pl+12 GD
Northampton#24 pos35 pts46 pl-35 GD
Goals per game
Luton scored1.48
Northampton scored0.85
Luton conceded1.22
Northampton conceded1.61

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

Try Pro for £1

then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Luton v Northampton?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Luton v Northampton was Home win.
What is the head-to-head record between Luton and Northampton?
In their last 1 meetings, Luton won 1, Northampton won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 1 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Luton and Northampton?
Recent form — Luton 4W 1D 0L; Northampton 0W 0D 5L.

Today’s Boards

Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.

Predictions todayTomorrowBTTS boardOver 2.5 boardUnder 2.5 boardOver 1.5 boardHome win boardAway win boardDouble chance board
Share this prediction: X · Facebook · WhatsApp · Telegram

This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.

Unlock all 246 predictions, advanced stats & the model v the market with ProTry Pro for £1 then £9.99 a month unless you cancel · 18+