Luton v Stockport County result

Full-time · Luton 2–0 Stockport County

League One · Wed, 02 Sep 2026 19:45 BST · Kenilworth Road

Updated 18 Oct 2026, 11:22 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Luton · Stockport County

The model’s pre-match pick

Luton 2–0 Stockport County — Luton won this League One match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.54 at Unibet

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 643 landed (95% range 61.9–69.2%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Luton beat Stockport County 2–0 at Kenilworth Road in League One on Wednesday 2 September.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Luton: Nahki Wells (50’) and Callum Marshall (76’, assisted by Jamie Donley).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Nahki Wells’s goal on 50 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Luton 1.40, Stockport County 0.84, from 7 shots to 10 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

C. Hicks showed two yellow cards — against 2.8 yellows a game across the last 9 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Luton: Daniel Gore (56’); Stockport County: Oliver Norwood (68’).

What it changes

Luton move up from 13th to seventh (four league matches played).

Stockport County move down from third to ninth (four league matches played).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jamie Donley (Luton) 6.2, Harrison Ashby (Luton) 5.9 and Callum Marshall (Luton) 5.1 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Over 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 65.6% of the time in the last 90 days (422 of 643).

Next up

Luton next host Barnsley on 20 October 2026.

Stockport County next travel to Doncaster on 20 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Luton: Luton v Barnsley, Tuesday 20 October — the preview. Next for Stockport County: Doncaster v Stockport County, Tuesday 20 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Luton 2–0 Stockport County · League One
Venue: Kenilworth Road · Luton, Bedfordshire
Referee: C. Hicks
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 2): Luton 1 · draws 1 · Stockport County 0 · 2.5 goals/game
Recent form: Luton 2W 1D 2L · Stockport County 2W 1D 2L

Luton 2–0 Stockport County (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 18 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

2.25 / 2.13

Goals

against 1.88 / 1.25 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.25

over 8 matches

5.88 / 7.38

Corners

against 4.38 / 4.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.75 / 5.75

Shots on target

against 5.13 / 4.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.13 / 1.25

Cards

against 2.38 / 1.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

2.78 yellows

Referee · C. Hicks

1.33 home / 1.44 away

over 9 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 30 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 30 August 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Luton for / against	Line	Stockport County for / against
Goals scored	2.25 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.25our book	2.13 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.88 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	7.38 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	13.13 for · 16.13 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	13.75 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.75 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5.75 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11 for · 14.38 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	9.88 for · 9.38 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.13 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.25 for · 1.13 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: C. Hicks — 2.78 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 22.22 fouls over 9 matches (1.33 to the home side, 1.44 to the away side).

Home 1.33Away 1.44

Luton

Luton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Cole n 8	31.5	3.2 6/2	2.9 4/3	—
C. Marshall n 8	37.1	2.4 7/1	0.6 2/0	—
G. Kodua n 8	30.9	2.2 4/2	2.2 4/2	—
N. Wells n 8	61.1	2 6/4	1.1 5/1	—
D. van den Berg n 8	53.8	1.7 5/2	1 4/1	—

Luton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
N. Wells n 8	61.1	2.9 7/5	1.7 5/3
G. Kodua n 8	30.9	2.6 4/3	0.7 2/0
K. Palmer n 8	79.8	2.5 8/6	1 5/2
S. Morris n 8	44.3	2 4/2	1.5 4/1
J. Clark n 8	78.8	1.9 7/4	1 5/2

Luton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
N. Wells n 8	61.1	0.9 4/1	0.2 1/0
S. Morris n 8	44.3	0.5 2/0	0.5 1/1
K. Palmer n 8	79.8	0.7 3/2	0.1 1/0
G. Kodua n 8	30.9	0.7 2/0	0 0/0
J. Clark n 8	78.8	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0

Luton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
S. Sandal n 8	39.9	5.1 5/4
I. Jones n 8	71.8	3.3 6/4
K. Naismith n 8	84.4	2.9 6/3
C. Marshall n 8	37.1	2.7 5/2
G. Kodua n 8	30.9	2.6 6/1

Luton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Joshua Keeley n 8	80.8	3.2 4/2

Stockport County

Stockport County — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
L. Fiorini n 8	12.1	2.8 3/0	0.9 1/0	—
I. Olaofe n 8	32.1	2.5 5/2	2.1 3/2	—
J. Adigun n 4	26.5	2.5 2/1	2.5 2/1	—
Adama Sidibeh n 8	65.3	2.4 6/4	0.7 4/0	—
R. Rydel n 8	23	2 4/0	1 2/0	—

Stockport County — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
L. Fiorini n 8	12.1	2.8 1/1	1.9 1/1
H. Wood n 8	71.4	2.5 7/6	1.3 5/3
J. Adigun n 4	26.5	2.5 3/0	1.7 2/0
J. Diamond n 8	54.4	2.3 4/4	0.6 3/0
L. Barry n 8	50	2.3 6/2	1.3 4/1

Stockport County — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
L. Barry n 8	50	0.9 3/1	0.2 1/0
H. Wood n 8	71.4	0.5 2/1	0.3 1/1
O. Bailey n 8	64	0.2 1/0	0.5 3/0
Benoný Breki Andrésson n 8	16.1	0 0/0	0.7 1/0
J. Diamond n 8	54.4	0.4 2/0	0.2 1/0

Stockport County — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Adigun n 4	26.5	5.1 2/1
T. Edun n 8	64.1	3.7 7/5
L. Fiorini n 8	12.1	2.8 3/0
R. Rydel n 8	23	2.4 4/1
E. Pye n 8	90.8	2.1 6/4

Stockport County — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 30 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
C. Addai n 8	90	3.8 8/5
Oliver Whatmuff n 4	91.5	2 2/2

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Luton		Stockport County
38%	Possession	62%
1.40	Expected goals (xG)	0.84
7	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	2
1	Shots off target	6
1	Blocked shots	2
6	Shots inside the box	8
2	Corners	8
3	Offsides	6
7	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	3
383	Passes	625
76%	Pass accuracy	86%

Luton player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
L. Walsh	90	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	7.2
M. Andersen	90	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7.5
H. Ashby	90	0	0	1	1	0	5	0	6.8
J. Donley	90	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	7.5
G. Johnston	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7
H. Odoffin	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	7.3
Joshua Keeley	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6
K. Palmer	75	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	6.6
Daniel Gore	65	0	0	0	0	0	2	Y	6.3
N. Wells	65	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	7.6
B. Benagr	45	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	7.3
I. Jones	45	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.4
C. Marshall	25	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	7.4
J. Richards	25	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
G. Kodua	15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.4

Stockport County player stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Kyron Silveria Gordon	90	0	0	1	2	0	6.9
O. Norwood	90	2	0	3	2	Y	7.2
E. O'Connell	90	0	0	0	3	0	7
E. Pye	90	0	0	1	1	0	6.4
Oliver Whatmuff	90	0	0	0	0	0	6.1
K. Wootton	90	4	0	0	1	0	6.3
J. Diamond	77	0	0	0	1	0	6
H. Wood	75	1	1	0	0	0	6.4
L. Bate	74	0	0	1	2	0	6.6
T. Edun	65	0	0	0	1	0	5.9
J. Dacres-Cogley	64	0	0	0	1	0	5.8
R. Glover	26	1	1	0	1	0	5.7
B. Osborn	25	0	0	2	0	0	6.5
M. Mandron	16	1	0	0	0	0	6.3
Benoný Breki Andrésson	15	0	0	0	2	0	6.5
J. Adigun	13	1	0	0	0	0	6.1

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Luton v Stockport County — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

LutonWWDLL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2.2 scored / 2.4 conceded per game

Stockport CountyLDWLW

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 2.2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 2

Luton 1 · 1 draw · Stockport County 0 · 2.5 goals/game

2026-03-21 Luton 1–1 Stockport County
2025-11-08 Stockport County 0–3 Luton

League standing · 2026/27

Luton#16 pos11 pts9 pl0 GD

Stockport County#2 pos19 pts10 pl+10 GD

Goals per game

Luton scored1.89

Stockport County scored2.1

Luton conceded1.89

Stockport County conceded1.1

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Luton v Stockport County?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Luton v Stockport County was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.54 at Unibet).
What is the head-to-head record between Luton and Stockport County?: In their last 2 meetings, Luton won 1, Stockport County won 0 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Luton and Stockport County?: Recent form — Luton 2W 1D 2L; Stockport County 2W 1D 2L.

Today’s boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 18 Oct 2026, 11:22 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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