Peterborough v Burton Albion result

Full-time · Peterborough 2–2 Burton Albion

League One · · Weston Homes Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Peterborough · Burton Albion · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Peterborough 2–2 Burton Albion — this League One match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Over 2.5 goals.

Free pick
Over 2.5 goals
Best price: 1.60 at Betano
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value vs the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 65.6% of 645 landed (95% range 61.8–69.1%); it had given them 76.5% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Peterborough and Burton Albion drew 2–2 at Weston Homes Stadium in League One on Saturday 17 October. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Peterborough out-shot Burton Albion 19 to 16 and created the better chances, 2.06 xG to 0.64 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Peterborough: Owura Edwards (2’, assisted by Harry Leonard) and M. Garbett (90’); Burton Albion: Charles Webster (30’, assisted by Kgaogelo Chauke) and G. Arubi (89’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with M. Garbett’s goal on 90 minutes.

Discipline

The bookings — Peterborough: Carl Johnston (77’) and Brandon Khela (79’); Burton Albion: Raphael Borges Rodrigues (78’).

What it changes

Peterborough move up from 20th to 19th (10 league matches played).

Burton Albion stay ninth after this result (11 league matches played). Burton Albion are winless in their last three matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Owura Edwards (Peterborough) 7.3, G. Arubi (Burton Albion) 7.3 and Lucca Mendonça (Peterborough) 5.8 led the match.

Next up

Peterborough next travel to Huddersfield on 20 October 2026.

Burton Albion next host Bradford on 20 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Peterborough: Huddersfield v Peterborough, Tuesday 20 October — the preview. Next for Burton Albion: Burton Albion v Bradford, Tuesday 20 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Peterborough 2–2 Burton Albion · League One
  • Venue: Weston Homes Stadium · Peterborough
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Peterborough 3 · draws 2 · Burton Albion 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • Recent form: Peterborough 1W 2D 2L · Burton Albion 1W 1D 3L

Peterborough 2–2 Burton Albion (League One): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 17 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1 / 1.38
Goals
against 1.75 / 1.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 3
over 8 matches
6 / 4.13
Corners
against 4.88 / 6.13 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
3.63 / 3
Shots on target
against 6.25 / 4.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
1.5 / 1.88
Cards
against 1.38 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 October 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gamePeterborough for / againstLineBurton Albion for / against
Goals scored
1 for · 1.75 against n 8
3our book
1.38 for · 1.75 against n 8
Corners won
6 for · 4.88 against n 8
9.5standard
4.13 for · 6.13 against n 8
Shots
14.25 for · 15.75 against n 8
19.5standard
9.75 for · 14 against n 8
Shots on target
3.63 for · 6.25 against n 8
8.5standard
3 for · 4.63 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.13 for · 11.63 against n 8
21.5standard
12.25 for · 12.88 against n 8
Cards shown
1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8
3.5standard
1.88 for · 2.13 against n 8
Peterborough
Peterborough — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Vernon Masara n 426.8
4.23/1
2.53/0
—
Harrison Jones n 856.8
1.85/2
0.63/0
—
Ethan Williams n 855.9
1.66/2
15/0
—
C. Conn-Clarke n 813.9
1.62/0
6.56/2
—
Lucca Mendonça n 860.9
1.55/3
0.62/1
C. Tilt
Peterborough — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
H. Leonard n 887.8
2.78/7
16/2
Lucas Pasquoto n 832.3
2.12/2
0.31/0
B. Woods n 851.8
26/3
0.42/0
Vernon Masara n 426.8
1.72/0
0.81/0
C. Conn-Clarke n 813.9
1.61/1
0.81/0
Peterborough — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
C. Conn-Clarke n 813.9
0.81/0
00/0
B. Woods n 851.8
0.21/0
0.41/1
Harley Mills n 883.6
00/0
0.42/1
H. Leonard n 887.8
0.32/0
00/0
James Dornelly n 876.1
00/0
0.32/0
Peterborough — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Ethan Williams n 855.9
3.27/5
Harley Mills n 883.6
3.16/3
Harry Ashfield n 846.9
2.97/3
Lucca Mendonça n 860.9
2.25/4
B. Woods n 851.8
2.26/2
Peterborough — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
A. Bass n 890
4.47/6
Burton Albion
Burton Albion — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
C. Tilt n 889.1
28/4
1.85/4
Lucca Mendonça
W. Collar n 858.3
1.95/3
0.84/0
—
M. Dennis n 856.9
1.85/2
13/1
—
Caylan Vickers n 851.4
1.85/2
0.42/0
—
Sulyman Krubally n 843.6
1.83/1
2.35/2
—
Burton Albion — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
G. Arubi n 874.8
3.28/6
1.45/3
Zac Scutt n 823
2.42/1
1.52/1
Lucas Pasquoto n 832.3
2.12/2
0.31/0
M. Dennis n 856.9
25/3
0.63/0
C. Webster n 887.6
1.57/4
0.32/0
Burton Albion — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
G. Arubi n 874.8
0.53/0
0.21/0
Caylan Vickers n 851.4
0.21/0
0.42/0
Zac Scutt n 823
0.51/0
00/0
K. Lofthouse n 889.9
00/0
0.43/0
F. Delap n 887.9
0.43/0
00/0
Burton Albion — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Sulyman Krubally n 843.6
3.97/4
T. Sibbick n 884.4
3.67/6
Emeka Adeile n 516.6
3.32/1
J. Sraha n 835.8
2.84/1
Harvey Araujo n 849.8
2.34/4
Burton Albion — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 10 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
C. Addai n 890
2.56/4

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
PeterboroughBurton Albion
55%Possession45%
2.06Expected goals (xG)0.64
19Shots16
6Shots on target6
7Shots off target7
6Blocked shots3
14Shots inside the box11
8Corners4
5Offsides3
11Fouls10
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
4Saves4
467Passes384

Peterborough player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
A. Bass9000000006.3
Ethan Williams9000312005.7
Harley Mills9000201306.2
Lucca Mendonça9000001506.6
L. Kelly9000210106.7
C. Johnston90002020Y5.5
Joshua Feeney9000000106.3
Bolu Shofowoke8200002006.1
H. Leonard8101412007.5
O. Edwards6910211407.5
Harry Ashfield6600210205.7
B. Khela24001010Y6.1
M. Garbett2100000006
Vernon Masara800000005.9

Burton Albion player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
C. Webster9010213008.1
C. Tilt9000001106.4
T. Sibbick9000000006.1
G. Evans9000000106.2
K. Chauke9001112107.4
Harvey Araujo9000001305.8
C. Addai9000000007.8
R. Borges Rodrigues82002111Y6.4
F. Delap6000000106
M. Dennis4600210006.6
G. Arubi4410521008.2
Sulyman Krubally3000001206.5
Mark O’Mahony800001006.8
Emeka Adeile800000006.7

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Peterborough v Burton Albion — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
PeterboroughDDLLW
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Burton AlbionLDWLL
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 0.8 scored / 1.8 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Peterborough 3 · 2 draws · Burton Albion 1 · 2.67 goals/game
  • 2026-04-19 Peterborough 1–1 Burton Albion
  • 2025-10-18 Burton Albion 0–1 Peterborough
  • 2025-01-01 Burton Albion 2–2 Peterborough
  • 2024-12-04 Peterborough 0–1 Burton Albion
  • 2024-03-09 Burton Albion 1–3 Peterborough
  • 2023-11-25 Peterborough 4–0 Burton Albion
League standing · 2026/27
Peterborough#19 pos9 pts10 pl-7 GD
Burton Albion#9 pos13 pts11 pl-2 GD
Goals per game
Peterborough scored0.9
Burton Albion scored1.45
Peterborough conceded1.6
Burton Albion conceded1.64

The full post-match picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Peterborough v Burton Albion?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Peterborough v Burton Albion was Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.60 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
In their last 6 meetings, Peterborough won 3, Burton Albion won 1 and there were 2 draws, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Peterborough and Burton Albion?
Recent form — Peterborough 1W 2D 2L; Burton Albion 1W 1D 3L.

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