Bristol Rovers v Accrington ST result
Team pages: Bristol Rovers · Accrington ST · Head-to-head
The model’s pre-match pick
Bristol Rovers 2–0 Accrington ST — Bristol Rovers won this League Two match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home cards yellow under 3.5.
The result
Bristol Rovers beat Accrington ST 2–0 in League Two on Saturday 28 March. It is Bristol Rovers’s first win over Accrington ST since 9 March 2021, after three meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).
The goals
Bristol Rovers led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Bristol Rovers: Riley-Jay Harbottle (5’, assisted by Kofi Balmer) and Jack Sparkes (53’).
How it turned
Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Riley-Jay Harbottle’s goal on 5 minutes.
The numbers
Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Bristol Rovers 0.92, Accrington ST 0.24, from 11 shots to 9 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).
Discipline
B. Speedie showed five yellow cards — against 3.1 yellows a game across the last 7 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Bristol Rovers: Riley-Jay Harbottle (49’) and Mees Rijks (67’); Accrington ST: Devon Matthews (52’), Freddie Sass (80’) and Tyler Walton (83’).
What it changes
Bristol Rovers move up from 17th to 16th (40 league matches played). Bristol Rovers have scored 48 goals, the eighth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 43 games, ranked per game). Bristol Rovers have conceded 61 goals, the ninth-most of the 24 clubs.
Accrington ST stay 15th after this result (39 league matches played). Accrington ST have scored 41 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 41 games, ranked per game). Accrington ST have conceded 50 goals, the 12th-most of the 24 clubs.
Bristol Rovers have won their last three matches in all competitions. Accrington ST are winless in their last eight matches in all competitions. Accrington ST have failed to score in their last four matches in all competitions.
Who stood out
By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jack Sparkes (Bristol Rovers) 8.0, Kofi Balmer (Bristol Rovers) 5.6 and Riley-Jay Harbottle (Bristol Rovers) 5.5 led the match.
Head-to-head
Accrington ST are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Bristol Rovers.
What the model said
The model’s free pick, Bristol Rovers cards yellow under 3.5, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.
Next up
Bristol Rovers next host Chesterfield on 14 November 2026.
Accrington ST next host Wycombe on 7 November 2026.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
Next for Bristol Rovers: Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield, Saturday 14 November — the preview. Next for Accrington ST: Accrington ST v Wycombe, Saturday 7 November — the preview.
The Numbers
- Result: Bristol Rovers 2–0 Accrington ST · League Two
- Referee: B. Speedie
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Bristol Rovers 1 · draws 1 · Accrington ST 4 · 4.17 goals/game
- Recent form: Bristol Rovers 4W 0D 1L · Accrington ST 0W 2D 3L
Bristol Rovers 2–0 Accrington ST (League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →
Key Stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 21 March 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Bristol Rovers for / against | Line | Accrington ST for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.38 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 0.38 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 4.25 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 3.25 for · 7 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 13.5 for · 10.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 9.75 for · 15.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 3.75 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 3.38 for · 4.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 11.75 for · 10.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 10 for · 9 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2.63 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.38 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
Referee: B. Speedie — 3.14 yellow cards a game, 0.14 red cards, 25 fouls over 7 matches.
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Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers Defensive
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Cavegn n 8 | 53.4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | — |
| J. Sparkes n 8 | 84.4 | 0.4 | 1.5 | S. Conneely |
| A. Kilgour n 8 | 90 | 1.4 | 0.9 | — |
| E. Harrison n 8 | 51.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | — |
| L. Thomas n 8 | 57.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | — |
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| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| F. Cavegn n 8 | 53.4 | 0.6 |
| J. Sparkes n 8 | 84.4 | 0.5 |
| A. Kilgour n 8 | 90 | 1.5 |
| E. Harrison n 8 | 51.5 | 0.2 |
| L. Thomas n 8 | 57.6 | 3.3 |
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Bristol Rovers Attacking
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| F. Cavegn n 8 | 53.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| J. Sparkes n 8 | 84.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| A. Kilgour n 8 | 90 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| E. Harrison n 8 | 51.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| L. Thomas n 8 | 57.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
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| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| F. Cavegn n 8 | 53.4 | 0.2 | 0 |
| J. Sparkes n 8 | 84.4 | 0 | 0.1 |
| A. Kilgour n 8 | 90 | 0.1 | 0 |
| E. Harrison n 8 | 51.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| L. Thomas n 8 | 57.6 | 0 | 0 |
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Accrington ST
Accrington ST Defensive
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Wright n 8 | 90 | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| Devon Matthews n 8 | 89.5 | 0.4 | 1.1 | — |
| I. Sinclair n 8 | 76.5 | 1.6 | 1 | — |
| Isaac Heath n 8 | 83.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | — |
| S. Conneely n 8 | 60.8 | 0.6 | 1.3 | J. Sparkes |
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| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Oliver Wright n 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Devon Matthews n 8 | 89.5 | 1.3 |
| I. Sinclair n 8 | 76.5 | 2.5 |
| Isaac Heath n 8 | 83.1 | 0.8 |
| S. Conneely n 8 | 60.8 | 1.7 |
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Accrington ST Attacking
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Wright n 8 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Matthews n 8 | 89.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| I. Sinclair n 8 | 76.5 | 1 | 0.7 |
| Isaac Heath n 8 | 83.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| S. Conneely n 8 | 60.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
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| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Wright n 8 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
| Devon Matthews n 8 | 89.5 | 0.1 | 0 |
| I. Sinclair n 8 | 76.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Isaac Heath n 8 | 83.1 | 0 | 0.1 |
| S. Conneely n 8 | 60.8 | 0 | 0 |
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The next free picks, by email
The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.
Match Statistics & Details
| Bristol Rovers | Accrington ST | |
|---|---|---|
| 43% | Possession | 57% |
| 0.92 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.24 |
| 11 | Shots | 9 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 7 | Shots off target | 2 |
| 1 | Blocked shots | 5 |
| 9 | Shots inside the box | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 5 | Offsides | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 1 |
| 237 | Passes | 312 |
| 52% | Pass accuracy | 63% |
Bristol Rovers Player Stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Young | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| K. Balmer | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7.9 |
| A. Kilgour | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.9 |
| R. Harbottle | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Y | 8.3 |
| J. Senior | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 7.5 |
| R. Smallwood | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 7.2 |
| C. Mola | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6.9 |
| J. Sparkes | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8.5 |
| J. Quigley | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| T. Leigh | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6.9 |
| F. Cavegn | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.5 |
| M. Rijks sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Y | 6.5 |
| S. Forde sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.6 |
| E. Harrison sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | – |
Accrington ST Player Stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Wright | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| F. Rawson | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.9 |
| D. Love | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| S. Conneely | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6.7 |
| I. Sinclair | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6.5 |
| S. Whalley | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5.6 |
| J. Woods | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 7.2 |
| C. O'Brien | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 |
| P. Madden | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| C. Brown | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| Devon Matthews | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Y | 6 |
| F. Sass sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Y | 6.5 |
| T. Walton sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | Y | 6.3 |
| D. Martin sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 |
| David Ogundele Abimbola sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.
Form, Head-to-Head & Standings
The numbers behind Bristol Rovers v Accrington ST — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2025-11-15 Accrington ST 3–1 Bristol Rovers
- 2023-01-14 Accrington ST 2–0 Bristol Rovers
- 2022-09-24 Bristol Rovers 0–1 Accrington ST
- 2021-03-09 Bristol Rovers 4–1 Accrington ST
- 2021-02-02 Accrington ST 6–1 Bristol Rovers
- 2019-09-07 Bristol Rovers 3–3 Accrington ST
The Full Post-Match Picture
Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What was the model’s pick for Bristol Rovers v Accrington ST?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Bristol Rovers v Accrington ST was Home cards yellow under 3.5.
- What is the head-to-head record between Bristol Rovers and Accrington ST?
- In their last 6 meetings, Bristol Rovers won 1, Accrington ST won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 4.17 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Bristol Rovers and Accrington ST?
- Recent form — Bristol Rovers 4W 0D 1L; Accrington ST 0W 2D 3L.
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