Bristol Rovers v Exeter City result

Full-time · Bristol Rovers 1–0 Exeter City

League Two · Sat, 26 Sep 2026 15:00 BST · Memorial Stadium

Updated 7 Nov 2026, 12:25 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Bristol Rovers · Exeter City · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Bristol Rovers 1–0 Exeter City — Bristol Rovers won this League Two match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

Best price: 1.28 at Bet365

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Bristol Rovers beat Exeter City 1–0 at Memorial Stadium in League Two on Saturday 26 September. Exeter City are winless in their last six matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 0–0 at half-time. The goals — Bristol Rovers: Fabrizio Cavegn (66’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s one key moment (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Fabrizio Cavegn’s goal on 66 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Bristol Rovers 0.00, Exeter City 0.00, from 17 shots to 8 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

M. Coy showed two yellow cards — against 2.7 yellows a game across the last 6 matches refereed (this competition).

What it changes

Bristol Rovers move up from fifth to second (eight league matches played). Bristol Rovers have scored 13 goals, the fourth-most of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 8 games, ranked per game). Bristol Rovers have conceded 11 goals, the 12th-most (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Exeter City stay 20th after this result (eight league matches played). Exeter City have scored four goals, the third-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 8 games, ranked per game). Exeter City have conceded six goals, the second-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Exeter City have failed to score in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Fabrizio Cavegn (Bristol Rovers) 5.8, Thomas James (Bristol Rovers) 5.7 and Jack Bycroft (Exeter City) 5.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Bristol Rovers or Exeter City (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

Bristol Rovers next host Chesterfield on 14 November 2026.

Exeter City next travel to Huddersfield on 7 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Bristol Rovers: Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield, Saturday 14 November — the preview. Next for Exeter City: Huddersfield v Exeter City, Saturday 7 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Bristol Rovers 1–0 Exeter City · League Two
Venue: Memorial Stadium · Bristol, Gloucestershire
Referee: M. Coy
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Bristol Rovers 1 · draws 1 · Exeter City 4 · 3.33 goals/game
Recent form: Bristol Rovers 3W 0D 2L · Exeter City 0W 3D 2L

Bristol Rovers 1–0 Exeter City (League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 7 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 0.5

Goals

against 1.5 / 0.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.75

over 8 matches

5.63 / 4.38

Corners

against 3.88 / 5.13 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.5 / 2.5

Shots on target

against 3 / 3.88 · 1 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.13 / 2

Cards

against 2 / 2 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

2.67 yellows

Referee · M. Coy

24.17 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 6 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 19 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 19 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Bristol Rovers for / against	Line	Exeter City for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	2.75our book	0.5 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5.63 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.38 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	16.63 for · 9.88 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	10.38 for · 13.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.5 for · 3 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	2.5 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.5 for · 8.63 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.38 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.13 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: M. Coy — 2.67 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 24.17 fouls over 6 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers Goalkeeper

Bristol Rovers — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Brad Young	8	90720 min	111.4 /90	121.5 /90	00 /90

Bristol Rovers — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Brad Young n 8	90	1.4 4/1

Bristol Rovers Defensive

Bristol Rovers — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
K. Balmer	8	84673 min	121.6 /90	70.9 /90	10.1 /90	374.9 /90	40.5 /90	30.4 /90
B. Purrington	7	90630 min	172.4 /90	81.1 /90	00 /90	456.4 /90	50.7 /90	10.1 /90
R. Harbottle	7	81566 min	172.7 /90	81.3 /90	61 /90	548.6 /90	101.6 /90	10.2 /90
T. James	6	89535 min	50.8 /90	61 /90	30.5 /90	203.4 /90	10.2 /90	20.3 /90
C. Kelly	3	67201 min	52.2 /90	31.3 /90	20.9 /90	188.1 /90	31.3 /90	00 /90
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Bristol Rovers — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Brad Young n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
C. Mola n 8	85.6	2.1 8/4	0.4 3/0	C. Cummins
K. Balmer n 8	84.1	0.5 4/0	1.2 6/3	J. Fitzwater
S. Forde n 8	80.3	2.2 7/4	1.1 5/2	R. Cole
R. Smallwood n 8	71.1	1.3 4/3	0.2 1/0	C. Cummins
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Bristol Rovers — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Mola n 8	85.6	2.6 8/6
K. Balmer n 8	84.1	1.6 6/4
S. Forde n 8	80.3	1.5 5/4
R. Smallwood n 8	71.1	3.6 6/6
F. Cavegn n 8	63.8	0.2 1/0
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Bristol Rovers Attacking

Bristol Rovers — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
F. Cavegn	8	64510 min	20.4 /90	10.2 /90	111.9 /90	71.2 /90	61.1 /90	91.6 /90
E. Harrison	4	49194 min	10.5 /90	00 /90	31.4 /90	31.4 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90
J. Quigley	3	61183 min	00 /90	00 /90	42 /90	10.5 /90	21 /90	00 /90
C. Mola	8	86685 min	10.1 /90	00 /90	60.8 /90	20.3 /90	30.4 /90	30.4 /90
S. Forde	8	80642 min	00 /90	00 /90	101.4 /90	20.3 /90	121.7 /90	60.8 /90
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Bristol Rovers — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Brad Young n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Mola n 8	85.6	0.8 5/1	0.3 2/0
K. Balmer n 8	84.1	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
S. Forde n 8	80.3	1.4 6/2	0.3 2/0
R. Smallwood n 8	71.1	0.3 2/0	0.2 1/0
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Bristol Rovers — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Brad Young n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
C. Mola n 8	85.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
K. Balmer n 8	84.1	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
S. Forde n 8	80.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Smallwood n 8	71.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Exeter City

Exeter City Goalkeeper

Exeter City — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Bycroft	8	91726 min	243 /90	70.9 /90	00 /90

Exeter City — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Exeter City before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Bycroft n 8	90.8	3 7/5

Exeter City Defensive

Exeter City — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
J. Fitzwater	8	91726 min	151.9 /90	81 /90	162 /90	566.9 /90	50.6 /90	10.1 /90
E. James	8	89715 min	70.9 /90	40.5 /90	50.6 /90	546.8 /90	60.8 /90	10.1 /90
L. Woodhouse	6	89536 min	142.4 /90	101.7 /90	20.3 /90	406.7 /90	20.3 /90	00 /90
Ethan Sutherland	5	42210 min	52.1 /90	10.4 /90	00 /90	104.3 /90	62.6 /90	20.9 /90
L. Samuel	4	68272 min	62 /90	41.3 /90	00 /90	134.3 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
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Exeter City — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Exeter City before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
C. Cummins n 8	90.8	1 6/2	2.2 8/4	R. Smallwood
J. Fitzwater n 8	90.8	0.6 4/1	0.5 3/1	K. Balmer
J. Bycroft n 8	90.8	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
E. James n 8	89.4	0.8 3/2	1.1 5/2	—
R. Cole n 8	85.6	0.9 4/2	0.4 3/0	S. Forde
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Exeter City — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Exeter City before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Fitzwater n 8	90.8	1.9 8/4
C. Cummins n 8	90.8	1.2 6/3
E. James n 8	89.4	0.9 4/2
R. Cole n 8	85.6	0.9 4/2
J. Gordon n 8	67.3	1.3 5/2
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Exeter City Attacking

Exeter City — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
R. Cole	8	86685 min	10.1 /90	00 /90	111.4 /90	60.8 /90	192.5 /90	30.4 /90
J. Gordon	8	67538 min	00 /90	00 /90	111.8 /90	50.8 /90	61 /90	40.7 /90
S. Cox	4	38153 min	00 /90	00 /90	31.8 /90	21.2 /90	00 /90	00 /90
J. Wareham	3	92276 min	00 /90	00 /90	82.6 /90	31 /90	00 /90	00 /90
D. Rose	3	55166 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90
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Exeter City — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Exeter City before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Fitzwater n 8	90.8	0.7 5/1	0.4 3/0
C. Cummins n 8	90.8	0.2 2/0	0.1 1/0
J. Bycroft n 8	90.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
E. James n 8	89.4	1.4 6/3	0.1 1/0
R. Cole n 8	85.6	1.4 5/4	0.8 3/2
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Exeter City — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Exeter City before kick-off, to 19 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Fitzwater n 8	90.8	0.2 2/0	0 0/0
J. Bycroft n 8	90.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Cummins n 8	90.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
E. James n 8	89.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Cole n 8	85.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Bristol Rovers		Exeter City
44%	Possession	56%
17	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	5
8	Shots off target	1
4	Blocked shots	2
13	Shots inside the box	4
6	Corners	3
13	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
5	Saves	4
252	Passes	328
59%	Pass accuracy	71%

Bristol Rovers Player Stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
R. Smallwood	90	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.6
K. Balmer	90	0	2	0	3	0	0	6.6
T. James	90	0	2	0	1	5	0	6.4
C. Kelly	90	0	2	1	0	1	0	6.5
A. Kilgour	90	0	3	0	0	2	0	7.9
C. Mola	90	0	0	0	0	4	0	6.7
Brad Young	90	0	0	0	1	0	0	7.6
F. Cavegn	89	1	3	1	1	0	0	8.1
J. Sparkes	89	0	1	0	2	2	0	6.9
E. Harrison	79	0	1	1	3	0	Y	6.4
S. Forde	64	0	2	1	1	0	0	6.7
R. Russell-Denny	26	0	1	1	1	0	0	7.2
J. Quigley	11	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
B. Kamwa	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.2
B. Purrington	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0

Exeter City Player Stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
R. Cole	90	1	0	1	1	0	5.9
C. Cummins	90	1	1	2	1	0	6.4
J. Fitzwater	90	0	0	1	3	0	6.8
D. Rose	90	1	1	1	0	0	6.4
L. Samuel	90	0	0	1	0	0	6.6
Ethan Sutherland	90	2	1	0	1	0	5.9
J. Bycroft	90	0	0	1	0	0	6.9
L. Woodhouse	90	0	0	0	3	0	6.4
J. Doyle-Hayes	85	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
G. Edwards	77	2	1	0	0	Y	6.1
J. Taylor	68	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
A. Oluwabori	22	1	0	0	0	0	6
George Birch	13	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
J. Gordon	5	0	0	0	0	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Bristol Rovers v Exeter City — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Bristol RoversWWWLL

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · 1 scored / 1 conceded per game

Exeter CityLDDLD

Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · 0.4 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Bristol Rovers 1 · 1 draw · Exeter City 4 · 3.33 goals/game

2025-04-12 Bristol Rovers 1–2 Exeter City
2024-12-26 Exeter City 3–1 Bristol Rovers
2024-02-03 Exeter City 0–1 Bristol Rovers
2024-01-23 Bristol Rovers 0–1 Exeter City
2022-12-29 Bristol Rovers 3–4 Exeter City
2022-10-01 Exeter City 2–2 Bristol Rovers

League standing · 2026/27

Bristol Rovers#17 pos16 pts14 pl-6 GD

Exeter City#12 pos19 pts14 pl+2 GD

Goals per game

Bristol Rovers scored1.21

Exeter City scored0.79

Bristol Rovers conceded1.64

Exeter City conceded0.64

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Bristol Rovers v Exeter City?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Bristol Rovers v Exeter City was Home or Away (best price 1.28 at Bet365).
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol Rovers and Exeter City?: In their last 6 meetings, Bristol Rovers won 1, Exeter City won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Bristol Rovers and Exeter City?: Recent form — Bristol Rovers 3W 0D 2L; Exeter City 0W 3D 2L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 7 Nov 2026, 12:25 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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