Crewe v Milton Keynes Dons result
Team pages: Crewe · Milton Keynes Dons · Head-to-head
The model’s pre-match pick
Crewe 1–3 Milton Keynes Dons — Milton Keynes Dons won this League Two match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Both teams to score: Yes.
The result
Milton Keynes Dons won 3–1 at Crewe in League Two on Saturday 18 April.
Milton Keynes Dons have scored 86 goals, the most of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games).
The goals
Milton Keynes Dons led 2–0 at half-time. The goals — Milton Keynes Dons: Curtis Nelson (12’, assisted by Liam Kelly), Marvin Ekpiteta (45’, assisted by Nathaniel Mendez-Laing) and Alexander Gilbey (66’, assisted by Marvin Ekpiteta); Crewe: Adrien Thibaut (75’, assisted by J. Powell).
How it turned
Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Curtis Nelson’s goal on 12 minutes.
The numbers
Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Crewe 0.66, Milton Keynes Dons 1.32, from 8 shots to 17 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).
Discipline
Z. Kennard-Kettle showed two yellow cards — against 5.4 yellows a game across the last 8 matches refereed (all competitions). The bookings — Crewe: M. Sanders (59’); Milton Keynes Dons: Alexander Gilbey (60’).
What it changes
Crewe stay 10th after this result (44 league matches played). Crewe have scored 64 goals, the ninth-most of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games). Crewe have conceded 58 goals, the 12th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.
Milton Keynes Dons stay second after this result (44 league matches played). Milton Keynes Dons have conceded 45 goals, the third-fewest of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games).
Milton Keynes Dons are unbeaten in their last four matches in all competitions.
Who stood out
By TACTIX Impact for this match, Marvin Ekpiteta (Milton Keynes Dons) 10.8, Liam Kelly (Milton Keynes Dons) 7.9 and Alexander Gilbey (Milton Keynes Dons) 6.1 led the match.
Head-to-head
Milton Keynes Dons are unbeaten in the last four meetings with Crewe.
What the model said
The model’s free pick, Both teams to score: Yes, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.
Next up
Crewe next host Newport County on 14 November 2026.
Milton Keynes Dons next host Burton Albion on 14 November 2026.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
Next for Crewe: Crewe v Newport County, Saturday 14 November — the preview. Next for Milton Keynes Dons: Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion, Saturday 14 November — the preview.
The Numbers
- Result: Crewe 1–3 Milton Keynes Dons · League Two
- Referee: Z. Kennard-Kettle
- Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
- Head-to-head (last 6): Crewe 1 · draws 1 · Milton Keynes Dons 4 · 3 goals/game
- Recent form: Crewe 3W 0D 2L · Milton Keynes Dons 1W 2D 2L
Crewe 1–3 Milton Keynes Dons (League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →
Key Stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 11 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Crewe for / against | Line | Milton Keynes Dons for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.38 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 1.5 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 5.25 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 3.88 for · 5.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 12.63 for · 15.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 12.38 for · 11.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 3.88 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4.13 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 11.88 for · 11 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 13.25 for · 10.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 2 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 2.13 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5 |
Referee: Z. Kennard-Kettle.
Crewe
Crewe Defensive
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Billington n 8 | 90 | 0.3 | 0.5 | M. Ekpiteta |
| T. O'Reilly n 8 | 83.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | A. Gilbey |
| R. Hutchinson n 8 | 84.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | M. Ekpiteta |
| Calum Agius n 8 | 67.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | A. Gilbey |
| J. Connolly n 8 | 83.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | M. Ekpiteta |
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| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| L. Billington n 8 | 90 | 1.5 |
| T. O'Reilly n 8 | 83.3 | 1.9 |
| R. Hutchinson n 8 | 84.5 | 2.1 |
| Calum Agius n 8 | 67.5 | 2.2 |
| J. Connolly n 8 | 83.5 | 0.5 |
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Crewe Attacking
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| L. Billington n 8 | 90 | 0.4 | 0 |
| T. O'Reilly n 8 | 83.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| R. Hutchinson n 8 | 84.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Calum Agius n 8 | 67.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| J. Connolly n 8 | 83.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
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| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| L. Billington n 8 | 90 | 0 | 0.1 |
| T. O'Reilly n 8 | 83.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| R. Hutchinson n 8 | 84.5 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Calum Agius n 8 | 67.5 | 0 | 0 |
| J. Connolly n 8 | 83.5 | 0.1 | 0 |
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Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons Defensive
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. MacGillivray n 8 | 90 | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| A. Gilbey n 8 | 90 | 1.8 | 1.5 | Calum Agius |
| L. Kelly n 8 | 77.5 | 1.3 | 0.9 | — |
| L. Offord n 8 | 85.9 | 1.3 | 1.3 | — |
| M. Ekpiteta n 8 | 84.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | J. Connolly |
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| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| C. MacGillivray n 8 | 90 | 0 |
| A. Gilbey n 8 | 90 | 0.8 |
| L. Kelly n 8 | 77.5 | 1.6 |
| L. Offord n 8 | 85.9 | 1.6 |
| M. Ekpiteta n 8 | 84.6 | 1.7 |
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Milton Keynes Dons Attacking
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. MacGillivray n 8 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Gilbey n 8 | 90 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| L. Kelly n 8 | 77.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| L. Offord n 8 | 85.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| M. Ekpiteta n 8 | 84.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 |
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| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. MacGillivray n 8 | 90 | 0 | 0 |
| A. Gilbey n 8 | 90 | 0.3 | 0 |
| L. Kelly n 8 | 77.5 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| L. Offord n 8 | 85.9 | 0.1 | 0 |
| M. Ekpiteta n 8 | 84.6 | 0.4 | 0 |
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The next free picks, by email
The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.
Match Statistics & Details
| Crewe | Milton Keynes Dons | |
|---|---|---|
| 61% | Possession | 39% |
| 0.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.32 |
| 8 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 3 | Shots off target | 7 |
| 1 | Blocked shots | 4 |
| 4 | Shots inside the box | 10 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 498 | Passes | 313 |
| 78% | Pass accuracy | 71% |
Crewe Player Stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Lawlor | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.7 |
| L. Billington | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.2 |
| J. Connolly | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| M. Demetriou | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.7 |
| R. Hutchinson | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5.3 |
| J. March | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| E. Tezgel | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| M. Holíček | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.6 |
| M. Sanders | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Y | 7.2 |
| T. O'Reilly | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.2 |
| Calum Agius | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6.9 |
| A. Pond sub | 45 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.9 |
| A. Thibaut sub | 45 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.7 |
| C. Thomas sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6.3 |
| J. Powell sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7.5 |
Milton Keynes Dons Player Stats
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | SoT | KP | Tkl | Cards | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. MacGillivray | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7.2 |
| M. Ekpiteta | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7.9 |
| C. Nelson | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7.9 |
| J. Sanders | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| G. Jones | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 |
| B. Wiles | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| A. Gilbey | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | Y | 7.5 |
| J. Tomlinson | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7.2 |
| C. Paterson | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5.9 |
| L. Kelly | 84 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 7.3 |
| N. Mendez-Laing | 66 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7.2 |
| C. Lemonheigh-Evans sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
| R. Hepburn-Murphy sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6.3 |
Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.
Form, Head-to-Head & Standings
The numbers behind Crewe v Milton Keynes Dons — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2025-10-18 Milton Keynes Dons 3–1 Crewe
- 2025-04-21 Crewe 0–1 Milton Keynes Dons
- 2024-12-29 Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Crewe
- 2024-03-16 Milton Keynes Dons 3–1 Crewe
- 2023-09-02 Crewe 3–1 Milton Keynes Dons
- 2022-04-05 Milton Keynes Dons 2–1 Crewe
The Full Post-Match Picture
Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.
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Frequently Asked Questions
- What was the model’s pick for Crewe v Milton Keynes Dons?
- TACTIX’s free model pick for Crewe v Milton Keynes Dons was Both teams to score: Yes.
- What is the head-to-head record between Crewe and Milton Keynes Dons?
- In their last 6 meetings, Crewe won 1, Milton Keynes Dons won 4 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Crewe and Milton Keynes Dons?
- Recent form — Crewe 3W 0D 2L; Milton Keynes Dons 1W 2D 2L.
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