Notts County v Bristol Rovers result

Full-time · Notts County 1–1 Bristol Rovers

League Two · Sat, 02 May 2026 15:00 BST

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Notts County · Bristol Rovers

The model’s pre-match pick

Notts County 1–1 Bristol Rovers — this League Two match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.8% of 5059 landed (95% range 76.7–79%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Notts County and Bristol Rovers drew 1–1 in League Two on Saturday 2 May. Bristol Rovers are unbeaten in their last nine matches in all competitions.

The goals

Notts County led 1–0 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Notts County: Nicholas Tsaroulla (27’); Bristol Rovers: Ellis Harrison (55’, assisted by Tommy Leigh).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Ellis Harrison’s goal on 55 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Notts County 1.53, Bristol Rovers 1.53, from 14 shots to 12 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

R. Joyce showed six yellow cards — against 4.3 yellows a game across the last 7 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Notts County: Nicholas Tsaroulla (10’), Alassana Jatta (71’) and Matthew Palmer (75’); Bristol Rovers: Shaqai Forde (20’), Clinton Mola (65’) and Yusuf Akhamrich (77’).

What it changes

Notts County stay fifth after this result (46 league matches played).

Bristol Rovers stay 14th after this result (46 league matches played).

Bristol Rovers have scored in nine consecutive matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Ellis Harrison (Bristol Rovers) 6.2, Nicholas Tsaroulla (Notts County) 6.1 and Kofi Balmer (Bristol Rovers) 5.9 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Notts County or Bristol Rovers (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.8% of the time in the last 90 days (3938 of 5059).

Next up

Notts County next travel to Altrincham on 7 November 2026.

Bristol Rovers next host Chesterfield on 14 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Notts County: Altrincham v Notts County, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for Bristol Rovers: Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield, Saturday 14 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Notts County 1–1 Bristol Rovers · League Two
Referee: R. Joyce
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 2): Notts County 2 · draws 0 · Bristol Rovers 0 · 3.5 goals/game
Recent form: Notts County 2W 0D 3L · Bristol Rovers 5W 0D 0L

Notts County 1–1 Bristol Rovers (League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 2.25

Goals

against 1.75 / 0.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

4.25 / 3.63

Corners

against 4.88 / 4.25 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4.88 / 4

Shots on target

against 3.63 / 2.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2 / 2.63

Cards

against 1.75 / 2.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

4.29 yellows

Referee · R. Joyce

23.14 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 25 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 25 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Notts County for / against	Line	Bristol Rovers for / against
Goals scored	1.63 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	2.25 for · 0.63 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.25 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.63 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	12.38 for · 10.13 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.63 for · 12.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4.88 for · 3.63 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.38 for · 12.25 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	14.38 for · 10.5 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.63 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: R. Joyce — 4.29 yellow cards a game, 0 red cards, 23.14 fouls over 7 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Notts County

Notts County Defensive

Notts County — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Bedeau n 8	86	1.6 5/3	0.9 5/2	—
Tom Iorpenda n 8	90	1.3 5/4	2.8 6/5	—
M. Dennis n 8	57.9	2.7 6/4	0.6 3/0	—
Nicholas Tsaroulla n 8	76.6	1.9 7/3	1.6 6/4	—
C. Grant n 8	65.5	1.2 4/2	1.4 6/2	—
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Notts County — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Bedeau n 8	86	2 7/5
Tom Iorpenda n 8	90	2.6 8/6
M. Dennis n 8	57.9	1 2/1
Nicholas Tsaroulla n 8	76.6	2.1 6/4
C. Grant n 8	65.5	1.9 6/3
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Notts County Attacking

Notts County — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Bedeau n 8	86	0 0/0	0 0/0
Tom Iorpenda n 8	90	0.6 4/1	0.5 4/0
M. Dennis n 8	57.9	1 4/1	0.6 3/0
Nicholas Tsaroulla n 8	76.6	0.9 4/1	0.6 3/1
C. Grant n 8	65.5	1.2 4/3	0.9 3/2
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Notts County — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Notts County before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Bedeau n 8	86	0 0/0	0 0/0
Tom Iorpenda n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.4 3/0
M. Dennis n 8	57.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
Nicholas Tsaroulla n 8	76.6	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
C. Grant n 8	65.5	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
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Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers Defensive

Bristol Rovers — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
F. Cavegn n 8	53.9	0.2 1/0	1.5 6/1	—
J. Sparkes n 8	84.4	0.8 3/1	0.8 4/2	—
A. Kilgour n 8	76.5	0.9 5/1	0.9 3/2	—
E. Harrison n 8	56	2 5/5	2.6 7/5	—
C. Mola n 8	83.8	0.7 4/1	0.3 2/0	—
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Bristol Rovers — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
F. Cavegn n 8	53.9	0.8 4/0
J. Sparkes n 8	84.4	1.5 5/3
A. Kilgour n 8	76.5	0.9 4/2
E. Harrison n 8	56	0.4 2/0
C. Mola n 8	83.8	2.3 6/4
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Bristol Rovers Attacking

Bristol Rovers — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
F. Cavegn n 8	53.9	0.8 3/1	0.8 3/1
J. Sparkes n 8	84.4	0.5 3/1	0.1 1/0
A. Kilgour n 8	76.5	0.7 4/1	0.4 2/1
E. Harrison n 8	56	3.6 7/4	2 5/3
C. Mola n 8	83.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Bristol Rovers — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Bristol Rovers before kick-off, to 25 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
F. Cavegn n 8	53.9	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
J. Sparkes n 8	84.4	0.1 1/0	0.3 2/0
A. Kilgour n 8	76.5	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
E. Harrison n 8	56	1.4 4/2	0 0/0
C. Mola n 8	83.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Notts County		Bristol Rovers
60%	Possession	40%
1.53	Expected goals (xG)	1.53
14	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	4
2	Shots off target	3
6	Blocked shots	5
8	Shots inside the box	10
5	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
11	Fouls	18
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Saves	4
474	Passes	317
83%	Pass accuracy	72%

Notts County Player Stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
J. Belshaw	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.2
L. Ness	90	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.9
R. McDonald	90	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
J. Bedeau	90	0	1	0	0	4	0	6.7
Nicholas Tsaroulla	90	1	2	2	2	1	Y	7.6
Tom Iorpenda	90	0	1	0	2	0	0	6.9
J. Jones	73	0	0	0	2	1	0	7.5
A. Jatta	73	0	1	1	0	0	Y	6.7
J. Luker	59	0	3	3	0	0	0	6.6
C. Grant	59	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.6
O. Norburn	58	0	0	0	0	1	0	7.5
M. Palmer sub	32	0	0	0	2	0	Y	6.6
T. Hall sub	31	0	0	0	2	4	0	7.2
S. Robertson sub	31	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
L. Ndlovu sub	17	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
M. Dennis sub	17	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5

Bristol Rovers Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Brad Young	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
J. Senior	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.3
K. Balmer	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	7.3
R. Harbottle	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	7.3
J. Sparkes	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.2
R. Smallwood	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7.2
S. Forde	79	0	0	3	2	0	2	Y	6
E. Harrison	79	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	7.9
C. Mola	72	0	0	0	0	0	2	Y	7
R. De Havilland	45	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
P. Omochere	45	0	0	2	1	2	1	0	6.6
T. Leigh sub	45	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	7.5
Y. Akhamrich sub	45	0	0	1	0	0	0	Y	6.3
R. Howley sub	18	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
J. Quigley sub	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
F. Cavegn sub	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Notts County v Bristol Rovers — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Notts CountyLWLLW

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · 1.2 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

Bristol RoversWWWWW

Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · 2.6 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 2

Notts County 2 · 0 draws · Bristol Rovers 0 · 3.5 goals/game

2025-11-29 Bristol Rovers 0–1 Notts County
2017-11-03 Notts County 4–2 Bristol Rovers

League standing · 2025/26

Notts County#5 pos80 pts46 pl+22 GD

Bristol Rovers#14 pos62 pts46 pl-9 GD

Goals per game

Notts County scored1.61

Bristol Rovers scored1.22

Notts County conceded1.13

Bristol Rovers conceded1.41

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Notts County v Bristol Rovers?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Notts County v Bristol Rovers was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Bristol Rovers?: In their last 2 meetings, Notts County won 2, Bristol Rovers won 0 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Notts County and Bristol Rovers?: Recent form — Notts County 2W 0D 3L; Bristol Rovers 5W 0D 0L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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