Port Vale v Northampton prediction

League Two · Tue, 24 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · Vale Park

Updated 1 Nov 2026, 15:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Port Vale · Northampton · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home offsides under 2.5 the free pick for Port Vale v Northampton, League Two on Tue, 24 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Home offsides under 2.5

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Port Vale host Northampton in League Two on Tuesday 24 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Port Vale offsides under 2.5, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Northampton have scored nine goals, the fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 12 games, ranked per game). One of Northampton’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (7%).

Form and the table

Four of Port Vale’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (27%). Both teams scored in five of Port Vale’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). At home, Port Vale have four wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.14 and conceding 0.71. Port Vale have scored 10 goals, the third-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 12 games, ranked per game). Port Vale have conceded 14 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 24 clubs.

Both teams scored in five of Northampton’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). Away from home, Northampton have one win, three draws and three defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 0.86 points per game, scoring 0.71 and conceding 1.00. Northampton have conceded nine goals, the second-fewest of the 24 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 12 games, ranked per game).

Port Vale (18th) and Northampton (20th) are one point apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Northampton the stronger side, 2 rating points above Port Vale (Northampton 1480, Port Vale 1478, after at least 192 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 24 February 2026, finished Northampton 0–1 Port Vale.

Team news

Predicted Port Vale XI (3-5-2): M. Maroši, J. Moon, C. Humphreys, C. Hall, J. Lawrence-Gabriel, K. Dempsey, J. Headley, G. Byers, G. Hall, O. Lynch, O. Hernández — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Kyle Dempsey (3.9 per match over 13 appearances, one goal and one assist) and George Byers (3.6 per match over 10 appearances, three goals) have been Port Vale’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Port Vale (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Kyle Dempsey averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1079 minutes, with a key pass in seven of the last 10 appearances. George Byers averages 0.8 key passes per 90 over 597 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Northampton XI (4-4-2): Z. Jeacock, E. Moore, J. Guthrie, J. Donacien, J. Powell, J. Wormleighton, L. Evans, C. Lemonheigh-Evans, J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh, M. Warhurst, O. Dale — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Joseph Wormleighton (4.7 per match over 12 appearances) and Janoi Donacien (3.6 per match over nine appearances) have been Northampton’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Northampton (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Joseph Wormleighton averages 0.7 key passes per 90 over 963 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances. Janoi Donacien averages 2.9 tackles per 90 over 719 minutes, with a tackle in eight of the last nine appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Tue, 24 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · League Two · Vale Park
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Port Vale 2 · draws 2 · Northampton 2 · 0.83 goals/game
Recent form: Port Vale 3W 1D 1L · Northampton 2W 2D 1L

Port Vale v Northampton (League Two): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 1 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1 / 0.88

Goals

against 1 / 0.75 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.25

over 8 matches

5 / 5.63

Corners

against 5.75 / 3.88 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

4 / 4

Shots on target

against 2.88 / 3 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2 / 1.75

Cards

against 1.75 / 2 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 31 October 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Port Vale for / against	Line	Northampton for / against
Goals scored	1 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5	2.25our book	0.88 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	5 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.63 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	11.63 for · 10.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	12.13 for · 10.13 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	4 for · 2.88 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4 for · 3 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.38 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	13.13 for · 11.38 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.75 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5

Port Vale

Port Vale Goalkeeper

Port Vale — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Smith	7	90630 min	142 /90	91.3 /90	00 /90
M. Maroši	6	90540 min	162.7 /90	30.5 /90	00 /90

Port Vale — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Port Vale before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Smith n 7	90	2 4/3
M. Maroši n 8	90	2.3 6/3

Port Vale Defensive

Port Vale — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
C. Hall	11	77848 min	50.5 /90	50.5 /90	70.7 /90	485.1 /90	70.7 /90	00 /90
C. Humphreys	10	90900 min	101 /90	121.2 /90	30.3 /90	414.1 /90	131.3 /90	30.3 /90
L. Montsma	7	80557 min	101.6 /90	71.1 /90	10.2 /90	406.5 /90	61 /90	10.2 /90
K. John	7	61424 min	102.1 /90	71.5 /90	10.2 /90	255.3 /90	51.1 /90	00 /90
J. Moon	6	78467 min	81.5 /90	91.7 /90	00 /90	366.9 /90	91.7 /90	20.4 /90
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Port Vale — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Port Vale before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Lawrence-Gabriel n 8	86.9	1.8 7/3	1.9 7/4	—
K. Dempsey n 8	78.6	1.1 5/2	0.3 2/0	—
O. Lynch n 8	50.4	0.2 1/0	0.4 2/0	—
O. Hernández n 8	47.3	1.2 4/1	1.4 4/2	—
C. Hall n 8	90	0.4 3/0	0.8 6/0	—
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Port Vale — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Port Vale before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Lawrence-Gabriel n 8	86.9	1.6 6/4
K. Dempsey n 8	78.6	1.6 6/3
O. Lynch n 8	50.4	0.2 1/0
O. Hernández n 8	47.3	2.4 6/3
C. Hall n 8	90	0.6 3/2
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Port Vale Attacking

Port Vale — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
O. Lynch	13	57747 min	10.1 /90	00 /90	131.6 /90	70.8 /90	50.6 /90	60.7 /90
O. Hernández	12	51610 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	91.3 /90	60.9 /90	121.8 /90	131.9 /90
M. Watters	6	50302 min	00 /90	00 /90	92.7 /90	41.2 /90	00 /90	41.2 /90
B. Waine	5	54272 min	00 /90	00 /90	31 /90	20.7 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90
K. Figueroa	5	39196 min	20.9 /90	00 /90	73.2 /90	41.8 /90	00 /90	31.4 /90
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Port Vale — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Port Vale before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
J. Lawrence-Gabriel n 8	86.9	0.9 5/2	0.3 2/0
K. Dempsey n 8	78.6	1.4 6/3	0.9 5/1
O. Lynch n 8	50.4	1.1 4/1	0.7 3/0
O. Hernández n 8	47.3	1.7 5/2	1 3/1
C. Hall n 8	90	0.4 2/1	0 0/0
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Port Vale — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Port Vale before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
J. Lawrence-Gabriel n 8	86.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
K. Dempsey n 8	78.6	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
O. Lynch n 8	50.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
O. Hernández n 8	47.3	0.5 2/0	0 0/0
C. Hall n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Northampton

Northampton Goalkeeper

Northampton — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Z. Jeacock	13	911179 min	282.1 /90	90.7 /90	00 /90

Northampton — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Northampton before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Z. Jeacock n 8	90	2.3 6/4

Northampton Defensive

Northampton — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
E. Moore	13	911179 min	90.7 /90	120.9 /90	80.6 /90	705.3 /90	90.7 /90	10.1 /90
J. Guthrie	13	911179 min	131 /90	201.5 /90	80.6 /90	765.8 /90	70.5 /90	10.1 /90
J. Maxwell	10	77771 min	141.6 /90	121.4 /90	10.1 /90	445.1 /90	40.5 /90	10.1 /90
J. Donacien	9	80719 min	232.9 /90	91.1 /90	40.5 /90	486 /90	50.6 /90	00 /90
Joshua Alan Powell	6	65389 min	71.6 /90	71.6 /90	00 /90	153.5 /90	40.9 /90	20.5 /90
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Northampton — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Northampton before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
J. Guthrie n 8	90	0.6 5/0	0.8 5/1	—
E. Moore n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0.9 3/3	—
Z. Jeacock n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
J. Wormleighton n 8	90	1.6 7/4	1.8 8/4	—
Matthew Warhurst n 8	63.4	2 7/2	0.5 2/1	—
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Northampton — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Northampton before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
J. Guthrie n 8	90	1 6/2
E. Moore n 8	90	0.6 4/1
J. Wormleighton n 8	90	4.5 8/8
Matthew Warhurst n 8	63.4	0.9 3/2
T. Fornah n 8	75.3	1.3 5/2
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Northampton Attacking

Northampton — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Matthew Warhurst	11	63690 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	141.8 /90	50.7 /90	40.5 /90	30.4 /90
O. Dale	7	79551 min	00 /90	10.2 /90	142.3 /90	61 /90	61 /90	101.6 /90
N. Opoku	7	55388 min	10.2 /90	00 /90	51.2 /90	30.7 /90	10.2 /90	81.9 /90
H. Saunders	6	59356 min	00 /90	00 /90	112.8 /90	51.3 /90	10.3 /90	41 /90
S. Hoskins	6	59353 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	20.5 /90	10.3 /90	20.5 /90	10.3 /90
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Northampton — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Northampton before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
E. Moore n 8	90	0.6 4/1	0.3 2/0
J. Guthrie n 8	90	0.5 3/1	0.4 2/1
Z. Jeacock n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Wormleighton n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Matthew Warhurst n 8	63.4	2.5 6/3	0.9 4/1
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Northampton — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Northampton before kick-off, to 31 October 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
E. Moore n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
J. Guthrie n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Z. Jeacock n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Wormleighton n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Matthew Warhurst n 8	63.4	0.4 2/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Port Vale v Northampton — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Port ValeWWDLW

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.4 scored / 1 conceded per game

NorthamptonDWLWD

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.2 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Port Vale 2 · 2 draws · Northampton 2 · 0.83 goals/game

2026-02-24 Northampton 0–1 Port Vale
2025-10-04 Port Vale 0–0 Northampton
2024-04-01 Northampton 2–0 Port Vale
2023-09-16 Port Vale 1–0 Northampton
2022-02-12 Port Vale 0–0 Northampton
2021-08-07 Northampton 1–0 Port Vale

League standing · 2026/27

Port Vale#18 pos15 pts12 pl-4 GD

Northampton#20 pos14 pts12 pl0 GD

Goals per game

Port Vale scored0.83

Northampton scored0.75

Port Vale conceded1.17

Northampton conceded0.75

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Port Vale v Northampton?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Port Vale v Northampton is Home offsides under 2.5.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Northampton?: In their last 6 meetings, Port Vale won 2, Northampton won 2 and there were 2 draws, averaging 0.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Port Vale and Northampton?: Recent form — Port Vale 3W 1D 1L; Northampton 2W 2D 1L.

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