Swindon Town v Accrington ST result

Full-time · Swindon Town 2–2 Accrington ST

League Two · Sat, 18 Apr 2026 12:30 BST

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Swindon Town · Accrington ST · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Swindon Town 2–2 Accrington ST — this League Two match was drawn. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Under 2.5 goals.

Free pick

Under 2.5 goals

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Under 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 55.7% of 140 landed (95% range 47.4–63.7%); it had given them 77.6% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Swindon Town and Accrington ST drew 2–2 in League Two on Saturday 18 April. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Accrington ST out-shot Swindon Town 11 to 8 and created the better chances, 2.45 xG to 1.74 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

Swindon Town led 2–1 at half-time and were pegged back. The goals — Accrington ST: Josh Woods (1’) and Luke Joseph Butterfield (90’); Swindon Town: Oliver Palmer (18’, assisted by Jake Thomas Batty) and Aaron Drinan (20’).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Luke Joseph Butterfield’s goal on 90 minutes.

Discipline

D. Brown showed one yellow card — against 4.3 yellows a game across the last 8 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Accrington ST: Liam Coyle (63’).

What it changes

Swindon Town stay fifth after this result (44 league matches played). Swindon Town have scored 70 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games). Swindon Town have conceded 59 goals, the 10th-most of the 24 clubs.

Accrington ST stay 16th after this result (44 league matches played). Accrington ST have scored 47 goals, the fifth-fewest of the 24 clubs (2025/26 so far, after 46 games). Accrington ST have conceded 58 goals, the 12th-fewest (shared) of the 24 clubs.

Accrington ST are winless in their last four matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Oliver Palmer (Swindon Town) 6.9, Josh Woods (Accrington ST) 6.7 and Luke Joseph Butterfield (Accrington ST) 6.5 led the match.

Head-to-head

Accrington ST are unbeaten in the last five meetings with Swindon Town.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Under 2.5 goals, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 55.7% of the time in the last 90 days (78 of 140).

Next up

Swindon Town next host Grimsby on 14 November 2026.

Accrington ST next travel to Port Vale on 14 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Swindon Town: Swindon Town v Grimsby, Saturday 14 November — the preview. Next for Accrington ST: Port Vale v Accrington ST, Saturday 14 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Swindon Town 2–2 Accrington ST · League Two
Referee: D. Brown
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Swindon Town 1 · draws 3 · Accrington ST 2 · 3.67 goals/game
Recent form: Swindon Town 2W 2D 1L · Accrington ST 1W 0D 4L

Swindon Town 2–2 Accrington ST (League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 0.5

Goals

against 1.25 / 1.63 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

4.5 / 3.88

Corners

against 8.38 / 7.25 · 5 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

3.25 / 2.63

Shots on target

against 5.38 / 4.5 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.63 / 2.63

Cards

against 1.38 / 2 · 1 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

4.25 yellows

Referee · D. Brown

23.63 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 14 April 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 14 April 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Swindon Town for / against	Line	Accrington ST for / against
Goals scored	1.25 for · 1.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	0.5 for · 1.63 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.5 for · 8.38 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	3.88 for · 7.25 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	7.88 for · 16.5 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	10.75 for · 12.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	3.25 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	2.63 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	8.25 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.38 for · 12.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.63 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: D. Brown — 4.25 yellow cards a game, 0.13 red cards, 23.63 fouls over 8 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Swindon Town

Swindon Town Goalkeeper

Swindon Town — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
C. Ripley	45	894010 min	1152.6 /90	561.3 /90	10 /90

Swindon Town — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 14 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
C. Ripley n 8	90	3.6 6/5

Swindon Town Defensive

Swindon Town — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
W. Wright	34	802716 min	531.8 /90	301 /90	190.6 /90	1464.8 /90	210.7 /90	50.2 /90
Joel McGregor	31	591837 min	592.9 /90	321.6 /90	40.2 /90	1728.4 /90	211 /90	40.2 /90
R. Tafazolli	22	751644 min	221.2 /90	221.2 /90	311.7 /90	1628.9 /90	70.4 /90	30.2 /90
Filozofe Mabete	20	541084 min	231.9 /90	191.6 /90	100.8 /90	655.4 /90	131.1 /90	20.2 /90
B. Kirkman	9	59533 min	203.4 /90	111.9 /90	61 /90	376.2 /90	91.5 /90	20.3 /90
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Swindon Town — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 14 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
C. Ripley n 8	90	0 0/0	0.5 3/1	—
G. Kilkenny n 8	81.5	0.7 3/1	1 4/1	—
O. Palmer n 8	42.3	1.3 4/1	1.6 5/1	I. Sinclair
A. Drinan n 8	88	0.8 3/3	0.6 3/2	—
T. Nichols n 8	56.1	1.2 5/1	0.8 4/0	—
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Swindon Town — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 14 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
G. Kilkenny n 8	81.5	2.8 8/7
O. Palmer n 8	42.3	0.8 3/0
A. Drinan n 8	88	0.1 1/0
T. Nichols n 8	56.1	2 6/3
D. Oldaker n 8	77.5	1.7 7/3
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Swindon Town Attacking

Swindon Town — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
O. Palmer	39	602351 min	80.3 /90	20.1 /90	471.8 /90	271 /90	281.1 /90	240.9 /90
G. Kilkenny	41	843453 min	10 /90	10 /90	200.5 /90	70.2 /90	270.7 /90	240.6 /90
A. Drinan	38	863252 min	210.6 /90	40.1 /90	712 /90	421.2 /90	280.8 /90	220.6 /90
T. Nichols	38	692613 min	10 /90	00 /90	100.3 /90	50.2 /90	170.6 /90	190.7 /90
D. Oldaker	36	712544 min	10 /90	50.2 /90	200.7 /90	70.2 /90	240.8 /90	240.8 /90
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Swindon Town — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 14 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
C. Ripley n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
G. Kilkenny n 8	81.5	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
O. Palmer n 8	42.3	1.1 4/0	0.5 2/0
A. Drinan n 8	88	1.8 7/4	0.9 5/2
T. Nichols n 8	56.1	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
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Swindon Town — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 14 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
C. Ripley n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
G. Kilkenny n 8	81.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
O. Palmer n 8	42.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
A. Drinan n 8	88	0.4 3/0	0.1 1/0
T. Nichols n 8	56.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Accrington ST

Accrington ST Defensive

Accrington ST — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Accrington ST before kick-off, to 14 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Oliver Wright n 8	90	0 0/0	0.4 3/0	—
Devon Matthews n 8	78.3	1 5/2	2.2 7/5	—
I. Sinclair n 8	76.5	1.5 7/2	1.9 7/4	O. Palmer
S. Conneely n 8	59.9	1.1 4/2	1.5 3/2	—
F. Rawson n 8	90	0.5 3/1	1 5/3	—
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Accrington ST — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Accrington ST before kick-off, to 14 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Oliver Wright n 8	90	0 0/0
Devon Matthews n 8	78.3	1.7 4/2
I. Sinclair n 8	76.5	1 5/2
S. Conneely n 8	59.9	1.9 4/3
F. Rawson n 8	90	0.9 5/2
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Accrington ST Attacking

Accrington ST — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Accrington ST before kick-off, to 14 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Oliver Wright n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Devon Matthews n 8	78.3	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
I. Sinclair n 8	76.5	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
S. Conneely n 8	59.9	0.9 2/1	0.4 2/0
F. Rawson n 8	90	0.3 1/1	0 0/0
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Accrington ST — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Accrington ST before kick-off, to 14 April 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Oliver Wright n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Devon Matthews n 8	78.3	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
I. Sinclair n 8	76.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Conneely n 8	59.9	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
F. Rawson n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

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Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Swindon Town		Accrington ST
33%	Possession	67%
1.74	Expected goals (xG)	2.45
8	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	7
1	Shots off target	3
1	Blocked shots	1
7	Shots inside the box	8
5	Corners	6
0	Offsides	4
7	Fouls	6
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
5	Saves	4
247	Passes	492
57%	Pass accuracy	79%

Swindon Town Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Rating
C. Ripley	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
Filozofe Mabete	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	5.9
Jamie Knight-Lebel	90	0	0	0	0	0	2	6
Aidan Borland	90	0	0	0	0	0	4	6.9
Jake Thomas Batty	90	0	1	0	0	1	2	7
A. Drinan	90	1	0	2	2	0	0	6.9
J. Snowdon	78	0	0	1	0	0	3	6.6
O. Clarke	78	0	0	0	0	0	3	6.9
O. Palmer	78	1	0	3	3	1	1	7.2
T. Wilson-Brown	58	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
J. Hoilett	58	0	0	0	0	3	2	7
J. Scanlon sub	32	0	0	0	0	1	1	6.6
D. Oldaker sub	32	0	0	0	0	1	1	6.9
Joel McGregor sub	12	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.2
B. Bodin sub	12	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
F. Holman sub	12	0	0	1	1	0	0	6.3

Accrington ST Player Stats

Player	Min	G	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Oliver Wright	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.3
Devon Matthews	90	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.9
F. Rawson	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6
C. O'Brien	90	0	0	0	1	4	0	6.9
L. Coyle	90	0	0	0	0	1	Y	6.3
Luke Joseph Butterfield	90	1	1	1	0	1	0	7.9
D. Love	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
S. Whalley	90	0	2	1	3	0	0	7.2
J. Woods	90	1	3	3	2	1	0	6.5
I. Sinclair	72	0	1	1	0	0	0	6.5
F. Sass	26	0	0	0	1	0	0	5.9
C. Brown sub	64	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
P. Madden sub	18	0	2	1	0	0	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Swindon Town v Accrington ST — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Swindon TownWDDWL

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

Accrington STLWLLL

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 0.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Swindon Town 1 · 3 draws · Accrington ST 2 · 3.67 goals/game

2025-10-18 Accrington ST 4–0 Swindon Town
2025-03-22 Swindon Town 0–0 Accrington ST
2024-11-30 Accrington ST 2–2 Swindon Town
2024-11-16 Accrington ST 2–2 Swindon Town
2024-03-12 Swindon Town 1–2 Accrington ST
2023-11-28 Accrington ST 3–4 Swindon Town

League standing · 2025/26

Swindon Town#9 pos75 pts46 pl+11 GD

Accrington ST#16 pos53 pts46 pl-11 GD

Goals per game

Swindon Town scored1.52

Accrington ST scored1.02

Swindon Town conceded1.28

Accrington ST conceded1.26

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Swindon Town v Accrington ST?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Swindon Town v Accrington ST was Under 2.5 goals.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Accrington ST?: In their last 6 meetings, Swindon Town won 1, Accrington ST won 2 and there were 3 draws, averaging 3.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Swindon Town and Accrington ST?: Recent form — Swindon Town 2W 2D 1L; Accrington ST 1W 0D 4L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.