Swindon Town v Port Vale result

Full-time · Swindon Town 3–1 Port Vale

League Two · Tue, 01 Sep 2026 19:45 BST · County Ground

Updated 8 Nov 2026, 10:47 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Swindon Town · Port Vale · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Swindon Town 3–1 Port Vale — Swindon Town won this League Two match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

Best price: 1.30 at William Hill

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 78% of 5167 landed (95% range 76.8–79.1%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Swindon Town beat Port Vale 3–1 at County Ground in League Two on Tuesday 1 September. It is Swindon Town’s first win over Port Vale since 15 May 2022, after three meetings without one (the 6 prior meetings TACTIX holds).

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — Port Vale: O. Lynch (2’, assisted by Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel); Swindon Town: Aaron Drinan (13’), Ben Middlemas (71’) and L. Millard (90’, assisted by Anthony Munda).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s four key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Ben Middlemas’s goal on 71 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Swindon Town 2.64, Port Vale 0.73, from 14 shots to 7 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

M. Corlett showed two yellow cards — against 4.6 yellows a game across the last 7 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Swindon Town: Jack Thomson (87’); Port Vale: C. Humphreys (58’).

What it changes

Swindon Town move up from 14th to eighth (shared) (four league matches played).

Port Vale move down from 17th to 24th (four league matches played).

Port Vale are winless in their last six matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel (Port Vale) 7.8, O. Lynch (Port Vale) 7.2 and Kaelan Majekodunmi (Swindon Town) 7.0 led the match.

Head-to-head

Port Vale are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Swindon Town.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Swindon Town or Port Vale (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 78% of the time in the last 90 days (4028 of 5167).

Next up

Swindon Town next host Grimsby on 14 November 2026.

Port Vale next host Accrington ST on 14 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Swindon Town: Swindon Town v Grimsby, Saturday 14 November — the preview. Next for Port Vale: Port Vale v Accrington ST, Saturday 14 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: Swindon Town 3–1 Port Vale · League Two
Venue: County Ground · Swindon
Referee: M. Corlett
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Swindon Town 2 · draws 1 · Port Vale 3 · 3.33 goals/game
Recent form: Swindon Town 1W 1D 3L · Port Vale 0W 2D 3L

Swindon Town 3–1 Port Vale (League Two): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 8 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

0.88 / 0.5

Goals

against 2.25 / 1.5 · 4 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

3.63 / 4.75

Corners

against 7.88 / 4.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

2.63 / 3.25

Shots on target

against 6 / 3.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.88 / 1.13

Cards

against 0.75 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

4.57 yellows

Referee · M. Corlett

22.57 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 7 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 29 August 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 29 August 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Swindon Town for / against	Line	Port Vale for / against
Goals scored	0.88 for · 2.25 against n 8 Last 5	2.5our book	0.5 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.63 for · 7.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	4.75 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	7.5 for · 16.13 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11 for · 12.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	2.63 for · 6 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	3.25 for · 3.75 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	9.75 for · 8.13 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.13 for · 11.25 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.88 for · 0.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.13 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5

Referee: M. Corlett — 4.57 yellow cards a game, 0.14 red cards, 22.57 fouls over 7 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Swindon Town

Swindon Town Goalkeeper

Swindon Town — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
C. Ripley	4	90360 min	164 /90	71.8 /90	00 /90

Swindon Town — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
C. Ripley n 8	90	3.9 7/5

Swindon Town Defensive

Swindon Town — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
S. Negru	4	90360 min	102.5 /90	30.8 /90	82 /90	205 /90	10.3 /90	00 /90
M. Clark	4	84334 min	61.6 /90	61.6 /90	10.3 /90	215.7 /90	61.6 /90	10.3 /90
R. Tafazolli	4	55219 min	62.5 /90	41.6 /90	31.2 /90	187.4 /90	10.4 /90	00 /90
B. Kirkman	3	90270 min	196.3 /90	103.3 /90	10.3 /90	4113.7 /90	31 /90	00 /90
K. Majekodunmi	3	62186 min	62.9 /90	52.4 /90	41.9 /90	2311.1 /90	31.5 /90	10.5 /90
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Swindon Town — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
S. Negru n 4	90	0.3 1/0	0.5 2/0	C. Humphreys
A. Drinan n 8	85.6	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0	—
C. Ripley n 8	90	0.1 1/0	0.4 3/0	—
M. Clark n 4	83.5	1.6 3/2	1.6 4/1	L. Gordon
B. Middlemas n 7	54.4	1.4 3/1	1.2 4/1	—
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Swindon Town — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
S. Negru n 4	90	2.5 4/2
A. Drinan n 8	85.6	0.4 3/0
M. Clark n 4	83.5	1.6 4/1
B. Middlemas n 7	54.4	2.1 4/3
R. Tafazolli n 8	70.6	1.4 7/1
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Swindon Town Attacking

Swindon Town — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
A. Drinan	4	90360 min	10.3 /90	00 /90	61.5 /90	20.5 /90	10.3 /90	10.3 /90
L. Millard	4	51205 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90
O. Palmer	4	35140 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90	00 /90	21.3 /90
P. Glatzel	2	61121 min	10.7 /90	00 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90	10.7 /90	00 /90
J. Hungbo	2	3671 min	00 /90	11.3 /90	00 /90	00 /90	33.8 /90	33.8 /90
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Swindon Town — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
A. Drinan n 8	85.6	1.2 6/2	0.5 3/1
C. Ripley n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
S. Negru n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Clark n 4	83.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
B. Middlemas n 7	54.4	0.9 2/1	0.2 1/0
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Swindon Town — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Swindon Town before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
A. Drinan n 8	85.6	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
S. Negru n 4	90	0 0/0	0.3 1/0
C. Ripley n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
M. Clark n 4	83.5	0 0/0	0 0/0
B. Middlemas n 7	54.4	0.2 1/0	0 0/0
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Port Vale

Port Vale Goalkeeper

Port Vale — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Smith	4	90360 min	112.8 /90	61.5 /90	00 /90

Port Vale — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Port Vale before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Smith n 4	90	2.8 3/3

Port Vale Defensive

Port Vale — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
C. Humphreys	4	90360 min	30.8 /90	41 /90	20.5 /90	174.3 /90	82 /90	00 /90
L. Gordon	4	90360 min	10.3 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90	112.8 /90	61.5 /90	10.3 /90
J. Lawrence-Gabriel	4	85341 min	61.6 /90	51.3 /90	10.3 /90	287.4 /90	20.5 /90	20.5 /90
L. Montsma	3	82246 min	41.5 /90	20.7 /90	00 /90	155.5 /90	31.1 /90	00 /90
C. Hall	3	43128 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.7 /90	96.3 /90	42.8 /90	00 /90
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Port Vale — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Port Vale before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
K. Dempsey n 4	90	1.5 4/2	0.5 2/0	—
C. Humphreys n 8	90	1 4/1	0.3 2/0	S. Negru
L. Gordon n 8	78.1	0.9 3/3	0.9 3/2	M. Clark
J. Smith n 4	90	0 0/0	0.8 3/0	—
J. Lawrence-Gabriel n 8	85.4	0.7 4/1	2.4 7/4	—
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Port Vale — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Port Vale before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
L. Gordon n 8	78.1	1.2 5/2
K. Dempsey n 4	90	1 3/1
C. Humphreys n 8	90	0.6 5/0
J. Lawrence-Gabriel n 8	85.4	1.1 6/2
R. Walters n 8	76.3	1.2 5/2
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Port Vale Attacking

Port Vale — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
O. Lynch	4	64254 min	00 /90	00 /90	62.1 /90	20.7 /90	10.4 /90	31.1 /90
M. Faal	3	59176 min	00 /90	00 /90	73.6 /90	21 /90	10.5 /90	10.5 /90
K. Dempsey	4	90360 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	82 /90	10.3 /90
R. Walters	4	83331 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	10.3 /90	30.8 /90
O. Hernández	4	58232 min	00 /90	00 /90	20.8 /90	20.8 /90	51.9 /90	62.3 /90
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Port Vale — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Port Vale before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
C. Humphreys n 8	90	0.3 1/1	0.1 1/0
L. Gordon n 8	78.1	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
K. Dempsey n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Smith n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Lawrence-Gabriel n 8	85.4	1.1 5/2	0.1 1/0
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Port Vale — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Port Vale before kick-off, to 29 August 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
C. Humphreys n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Dempsey n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Smith n 4	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Gordon n 8	78.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Lawrence-Gabriel n 8	85.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Swindon Town		Port Vale
46%	Possession	54%
2.64	Expected goals (xG)	0.73
14	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	2
3	Shots off target	3
5	Blocked shots	2
12	Shots inside the box	4
10	Corners	4
3	Offsides	3
10	Fouls	7
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Saves	2
280	Passes	332
57%	Pass accuracy	62%

Swindon Town Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
C. Ripley	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7
M. Clark	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
S. Negru	90	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	7.2
K. Majekodunmi	90	0	0	0	0	1	7	0	7
A. Munda	90	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	6.2
O. Clarke	90	0	0	1	0	1	7	0	7.3
Jack Thomson	90	0	0	0	0	4	1	Y	6.9
A. Drinan	89	1	0	4	3	2	0	0	7.7
O. Palmer	74	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	6.6
R. Tafazolli	56	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
T. Nichols	56	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
B. Middlemas sub	34	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7.3
J. Snowdon sub	34	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
L. Millard sub	16	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7.6
J. Ball sub	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	–

Port Vale Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
K. Dempsey	90	0	0	2	0	0	5	0	6.6
C. Hall	90	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.9
C. Humphreys	90	0	0	0	0	0	1	Y	5.7
J. Lawrence-Gabriel	90	0	1	0	0	4	3	0	6.9
J. Smith	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
O. Lynch	90	1	0	2	2	0	1	0	6.3
L. Gordon	81	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.2
R. Walters	76	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	6.3
B. Waine	45	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	6.2
M. Craig	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
O. Hernández	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.2
B. Garrity sub	45	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.5
L. Montsma sub	45	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3
T. Simpson sub	45	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.3
G. Hall sub	14	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
J. Headley sub	9	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.2

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Swindon Town v Port Vale — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Swindon TownLLDWL

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

Port ValeLLLDD

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · 0.2 scored / 1.6 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Swindon Town 2 · 1 draw · Port Vale 3 · 3.33 goals/game

2025-02-08 Swindon Town 3–3 Port Vale
2024-09-28 Port Vale 2–1 Swindon Town
2022-05-19 Port Vale 1–0 Swindon Town
2022-05-15 Swindon Town 2–1 Port Vale
2022-01-15 Port Vale 1–3 Swindon Town
2021-09-11 Swindon Town 1–2 Port Vale

League standing · 2026/27

Swindon Town#13 pos19 pts14 pl-2 GD

Port Vale#19 pos15 pts12 pl-4 GD

Goals per game

Swindon Town scored1.07

Port Vale scored0.83

Swindon Town conceded1.21

Port Vale conceded1.17

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Swindon Town v Port Vale?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Swindon Town v Port Vale was Home or Away (best price 1.30 at William Hill).
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Port Vale?: In their last 6 meetings, Swindon Town won 2, Port Vale won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Swindon Town and Port Vale?: Recent form — Swindon Town 1W 1D 3L; Port Vale 0W 2D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 8 Nov 2026, 10:47 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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