Toluca v New York City FC result

Full-time · Toluca 2–1 New York City FC

Leagues Cup · · Yankee Stadium

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Toluca · New York City FC

The model’s pre-match pick

Toluca 2–1 New York City FC — Toluca won this Leagues Cup match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick
Home win
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 78% of 214 landed (95% range 72–83.1%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
Match report, in numbers

The result

Toluca beat New York City FC 2–1 at Yankee Stadium in Leagues Cup on Wednesday 6 August. Toluca are unbeaten in their last eight matches in all competitions.

The goals

Toluca led 2–1 at half-time. The goals — New York City FC: A. Martínez (10’, assisted by Agustin Ojeda); Toluca: J. Angulo (37’) and Paulinho (39’, assisted by J. Angulo).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Paulinho’s goal on 39 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) had little between the sides: Toluca 0.00, New York City FC 0.00, from 13 shots to 9 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

The bookings — Toluca: J. Gallardo (45+8’), F. Pereira (45+8’), F. Romero (57’) and R. Morales (87’); New York City FC: Aiden O'Neill (45+8’) and S. Tanasijevic (45+9’).

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, J. Angulo (Toluca) 8.5, A. Perea (New York City FC) 6.7 and Kevin O'Toole (New York City FC) 6.4 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Toluca to win, a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 78% of the time in the last 90 days (167 of 214).

Next up

Toluca next host Club Tijuana on 22 October 2026.

New York City FC next travel to Orlando City SC on 24 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Toluca: Toluca v Club Tijuana, Thursday 22 October — the preview. Next for New York City FC: Orlando City SC v New York City FC, Sunday 25 October — the preview.

The numbers

  • Result: Toluca 2–1 New York City FC · Leagues Cup
  • Venue: Yankee Stadium · New York City
  • Referee: Pierre-Luc Lauziere, USA
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Recent form: Toluca 3W 2D 0L · New York City FC 3W 1D 1L

Toluca 2–1 New York City FC (Leagues Cup): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.75 / 1.5
Goals
against 1 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.5
over 8 matches
4.33 / 5.38
Corners
against 4.33 / 6 · 0 of the last 3 over 9.5
over 6 matches
6.33 / 5
Shots on target
against 3.33 / 4.88 · 3 of the last 3 over 8.5
over 6 matches
2.83 / 1.75
Cards
against 2.5 / 2.13 · 2 of the last 3 over 3.5
over 6 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 2 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 2 August 2025. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per gameToluca for / againstLineNew York City FC for / against
Goals scored
1.75 for · 1 against n 8
2.5standard
1.5 for · 1.5 against n 8
Corners won
4.33 for · 4.33 against n 6
9.5standard
5.38 for · 6 against n 8
Shots
13.17 for · 9.33 against n 6
19.5standard
12.75 for · 12.38 against n 8
Shots on target
6.33 for · 3.33 against n 6
8.5standard
5 for · 4.88 against n 8
Fouls committed
12.83 for · 11.67 against n 6
21.5standard
10.88 for · 12.88 against n 8
Cards shown
2.83 for · 2.5 against n 6
3.5standard
1.75 for · 2.13 against n 8

Referee: Pierre-Luc Lauziere, USA.

Toluca
Toluca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 2 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
R. Morales n 827.1
2.93/2
2.14/1
—
Paulinho n 884.5
1.95/4
1.36/3
—
I. Violante n 830.3
1.93/2
1.13/0
—
Helinho n 836.9
1.84/1
3.45/3
Maxi Moralez
A. Vega n 887
1.66/3
2.16/5
Nicolás Fernández
Toluca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 2 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Helinho n 836.9
2.45/2
1.85/1
A. Vega n 887
2.37/5
1.45/4
Paulinho n 884.5
2.37/5
1.36/3
N. Castro n 828.1
24/1
0.82/0
R. Morales n 827.1
1.72/1
1.22/1
Toluca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 2 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Vega n 887
0.42/1
0.54/0
R. Morales n 827.1
0.81/1
00/0
Paulinho n 884.5
0.74/1
00/0
Marcel Ruíz n 888.4
00/0
0.43/0
J. Angulo n 866.3
0.21/0
0.21/0
Toluca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 2 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
D. Barbosa n 876.3
3.78/5
Marcel Ruíz n 888.4
3.38/8
F. Romero n 867
38/4
H. Herrera n 847
2.65/3
F. Pereira n 890
2.45/5
Toluca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 2 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
Pau López n 891.9
2.96/4
L. Garcia n 891
1.53/1
New York City FC
New York City FC — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 2 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Nicolás Fernández n 862.6
3.16/4
3.16/5
A. Vega
Seymour Garfield-Reid n 720.4
2.53/1
0.61/0
—
M. Carrizo n 424.8
1.81/1
0.91/0
—
Maxi Moralez n 886.6
1.77/4
1.76/5
Helinho
S. Tanasijevic n 860
1.75/3
1.16/0
—
New York City FC — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 2 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
A. Martínez n 876.3
3.28/7
1.98/2
Seymour Garfield-Reid n 720.4
2.53/1
1.92/1
M. Bakrar n 835.6
1.94/2
1.33/1
Julián Fernández n 858.9
1.76/1
0.83/1
Nicolás Fernández n 862.6
1.44/2
0.53/0
New York City FC — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 2 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Hannes Wolf n 882.6
0.73/2
0.43/0
A. Martínez n 876.3
0.73/1
0.11/0
Nicolás Fernández n 862.6
0.21/0
0.42/0
Maxi Moralez n 886.6
0.11/0
0.53/1
M. Ilenič n 843.4
0.31/0
0.31/0
New York City FC — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 2 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Perea n 878.8
3.17/6
Aiden O'Neill n 878.9
2.77/6
Hannes Wolf n 882.6
2.57/5
J. Shore n 836.5
2.24/2
Kevin O'Toole n 866
27/3
New York City FC — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 2 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
T. Romero n 890
3.56/5
Matthew Freese n 890
3.47/5

The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
TolucaNew York City FC
43%Possession57%
13Shots9
6Shots on target3
4Shots off target4
3Blocked shots2
9Shots inside the box5
2Corners4
4Offsides2
10Fouls13
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
2Saves4
374Passes498
78%Pass accuracy80%

Toluca player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
L. Garcia9000000006.9
F. Pereira90000004Y7.2
Luan9000001106.9
Everardo López9000000106.9
J. Gallardo90000001Y7.5
Marcel Ruíz9000100207.2
F. Romero89000001Y6.5
A. Vega7900212207
Paulinho7910210107.3
Helinho6900322207.3
J. Angulo6911224007.9
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco sub2200000106.7
N. Castro sub2200000106.6
F. Arce sub1200000307.2
R. Morales sub12000000Y6.2
A. Briseno sub10000000–

New York City FC player stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
Matthew Freese9000000006.3
Kevin O'Toole9000001606.9
Aiden O'Neill90000004Y6.9
A. Perea9000210707
Maxi Moralez9000103006.9
A. Martínez9010210007.2
Justin Haak8300000106.5
S. Tanasijevic60000000Y6.2
Nicolás Fernández6000000106.7
Agustin Ojeda5901001006.2
Tayvon Gray3100000106.9
M. Ilenič sub5900110106.6
Julián Fernández sub3100001206.9
Hannes Wolf sub3100000106.6
J. Shore sub3100100006.3
Seymour Garfield-Reid sub800000006.5

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Toluca v New York City FC — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
TolucaWDWDW
Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1.8 scored / 0.6 conceded per game
New York City FCWDWLW
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.8 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Goals per game
Toluca scored1.8
New York City FC scored1.8
Toluca conceded0.6
New York City FC conceded1.6

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Toluca v New York City FC?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Toluca v New York City FC was Home win.
What is the recent form of Toluca and New York City FC?
Recent form — Toluca 3W 2D 0L; New York City FC 3W 1D 1L.

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