Guadalajara Chivas v Toluca result

Full-time · Guadalajara Chivas 0–2 Toluca

Liga MX · Sun, 19 Jul 2026 02:07 BST · Estadio AKRON

Updated 1 Aug 2026, 04:30 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Guadalajara Chivas · Toluca · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Guadalajara Chivas 0–2 Toluca — Toluca won this Liga MX match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick

Home or Draw

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 75.3% of 1490 landed (95% range 73–77.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

Match report, in numbers

The result

Toluca won 2–0 at Estadio AKRON in Liga MX on Sunday 19 July.

The goals

Toluca led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Toluca: A. Vega (42’ pen) and J. Gallardo (74’, assisted by Helinho). Á. Sepúlveda (50’) was sent off.

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s three key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with A. Vega’s goal on 42 minutes.

The numbers

Expected goals (xG) agree with the result: Guadalajara Chivas 1.09, Toluca 1.77, from 13 shots to 14 (the provider’s expected goals for this match).

Discipline

D. Quintero showed four yellow cards and one red — against 4.4 yellows a game across the last 13 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Guadalajara Chivas: R. Alvarado (54’) and J. Carrillo (90+6’); Toluca: F. Romero (19’) and J. Gallardo (61’).

What it changes

Guadalajara Chivas are 17th after this result (one league match played).

Toluca are third after this result (one league match played).

Guadalajara Chivas are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, A. Vega (Toluca) 8.0, Santiago Simón (Toluca) 7.5 and R. Alvarado (Guadalajara Chivas) 6.0 led the match.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Guadalajara Chivas or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record like every other call. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 75.3% of the time in the last 90 days (1122 of 1490).

Next up

Guadalajara Chivas next host Necaxa on 21 October 2026.

Toluca next host Club Tijuana on 22 October 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Guadalajara Chivas: Guadalajara Chivas v Necaxa, Wednesday 21 October — the preview. Next for Toluca: Toluca v Club Tijuana, Thursday 22 October — the preview.

The numbers

Result: Guadalajara Chivas 0–2 Toluca · Liga MX
Venue: Estadio AKRON · Zapopan
Referee: D. Quintero
Model coverage: 19 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Guadalajara Chivas 1 · draws 2 · Toluca 3 · 1.5 goals/game
Recent form: Guadalajara Chivas 1W 2D 2L · Toluca 1W 1D 3L

Guadalajara Chivas 0–2 Toluca (Liga MX): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 19 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 1 August 2026). See the live track record →

Key stats

1.5 / 1.63

Goals

against 1.38 / 1.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 2.75

over 8 matches

6.75 / 5.67

Corners

against 2.63 / 3.83 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 6 matches

5.25 / 4.83

Shots on target

against 4.38 / 5.33 · 3 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 6 matches

1.88 / 2.33

Cards

against 3.13 / 2.17 · 5 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 6 matches

4.38 yellows

Referee · D. Quintero

2.54 home / 1.85 away

over 13 matches

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 May 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 31 May 2026. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Guadalajara Chivas for / against	Line	Toluca for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.75our book	1.63 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6.75 for · 2.63 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	5.67 for · 3.83 against n 6 Last 5
Shots	18.63 for · 10.75 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	14.17 for · 13.83 against n 6 Last 5
Shots on target	5.25 for · 4.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	4.83 for · 5.33 against n 6 Last 5
Fouls committed	11 for · 13.5 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	14.67 for · 12.67 against n 6 Last 5
Cards shown	1.88 for · 3.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.33 for · 2.17 against n 6 Last 5

Referee: D. Quintero — 4.38 yellow cards a game, 0.38 red cards, 24.92 fouls over 13 matches (2.54 to the home side, 1.85 to the away side).

Home 2.54Away 1.85

Guadalajara Chivas

Guadalajara Chivas — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
S. Aguayo n 8	18	5 7/1	2.5 3/1	—
G. Sepulveda n 8	23.3	3.9 5/2	0 0/0	—
R. Marin n 8	58.5	3.5 7/5	0.8 4/0	—
M. Gomez n 8	31.1	2.2 6/0	2.9 4/3	—
R. González n 8	81.9	2.1 8/3	1.5 7/3	—

Guadalajara Chivas — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
S. Aguayo n 8	18	3.8 3/2	1.3 2/0
A. Gonzalez n 8	62.9	2.7 6/4	1.6 6/1
H. Camberos n 8	25.4	2.7 4/2	1.3 3/0
Santiago Sandoval n 8	51.8	2.6 5/4	1.1 3/2
Á. Sepúlveda n 8	60.6	2.4 7/5	1.1 4/2

Guadalajara Chivas — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
H. Camberos n 8	25.4	0.9 2/0	0 0/0
Santiago Sandoval n 8	51.8	0.7 2/1	0.2 1/0
L. Romo n 8	64	0.2 1/0	0.4 2/0
A. Gonzalez n 8	62.9	0.4 1/1	0.2 1/0
Á. Sepúlveda n 8	60.6	0.4 2/0	0.2 1/0

Guadalajara Chivas — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
M. Gomez n 8	31.1	5.1 6/3
H. Camberos n 8	25.4	2.7 5/1
S. Aguayo n 8	18	2.5 2/1
R. Alvarado n 8	83.4	2.2 7/4
O. Govea n 8	87.8	1.9 7/6

Guadalajara Chivas — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Óscar Whalley n 8	90	3.4 7/5
R. Rangel n 8	78.9	1.1 3/0

Toluca

Toluca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
F. Rossi n 8	35.8	2.5 6/2	1.6 4/1	—
M. Isais n 8	44.8	2.3 4/3	0.5 2/0	—
Paulinho n 8	73.4	2 5/4	1.4 6/3	—
A. Alvarez n 8	39.1	2 6/1	2 5/2	—
F. Arce n 8	63	1.8 6/3	1.3 5/1	—

Toluca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
F. Rossi n 8	35.8	3.5 4/3	0.9 2/1
N. Castro n 8	50.3	3.1 8/4	1.6 7/0
Helinho n 8	59.8	3 8/4	0.9 3/1
Paulinho n 8	73.4	2.8 6/4	1.2 3/3
P. Perez n 8	71.3	2.2 5/4	0.5 3/0

Toluca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Paulinho n 8	73.4	0.9 3/2	0.2 1/0
J. Diaz n 8	46.5	0.5 2/0	0.2 1/0
F. Arce n 8	63	0.2 1/0	0.4 2/0
N. Castro n 8	50.3	0.4 2/0	0.2 1/0
A. Vega n 8	54.4	0 0/0	0.6 3/0

Toluca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
D. Barbosa n 8	65.3	3.6 6/6
Marcel Ruíz n 8	62.4	3.1 5/5
F. Arce n 8	63	3 7/5
Santiago Simón n 8	72.1	2.5 7/6
Everardo López n 8	75.6	2.4 7/3

Toluca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances before kick-off, to 31 May 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
L. Garcia n 8	93.8	3 5/4
H. Gonzalez n 8	90.5	2.2 6/3

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Match statistics & details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Guadalajara Chivas		Toluca
40%	Possession	60%
1.09	Expected goals (xG)	1.77
13	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	9
6	Shots off target	4
3	Blocked shots	1
10	Shots inside the box	10
9	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
14	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards	2
1	Red cards	0
7	Saves	4
354	Passes	563
81%	Pass accuracy	89%

Guadalajara Chivas player stats

Player	Min	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
R. Rangel	90	0	0	0	0	0	8.3
L. Romo	90	0	0	1	3	0	6.2
R. González	90	0	0	0	1	0	6.6
B. Gonzalez	90	2	1	1	1	0	6.2
R. Alvarado	90	2	1	4	4	Y	7.2
D. Aguirre	86	1	0	0	3	0	6.3
D. Campillo Del Campo	85	0	0	2	1	0	6.7
O. Govea	68	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
R. Ledezma	56	1	1	1	0	0	6.9
Á. Sepúlveda	50	1	0	1	0	R	5.2
K. Castaneda	45	1	0	0	0	0	6.9
B. Gutierrez sub	45	1	0	0	0	0	6.3
A. Gonzalez sub	34	1	1	0	0	0	6.2
J. Carrillo sub	22	0	0	1	0	Y	6.9
R. Marin sub	13	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
M. Gomez sub	12	0	0	0	1	0	6.6

Toluca player stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
L. Garcia	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7.3
Santiago Simón	90	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	7.3
F. Pereira	90	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	8.5
Everardo López	90	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	7.2
J. Gallardo	90	1	0	1	1	0	1	Y	7.2
F. Romero	90	0	0	0	0	1	1	Y	6.7
J. Diaz	90	0	0	2	2	1	1	0	6.9
J. Angulo	87	0	0	2	0	3	1	0	6.6
N. Castro	87	0	0	2	2	3	1	0	7
A. Vega	70	1	0	3	2	1	0	0	6.9
É. Gutiérrez	59	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.9
Helinho sub	31	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	7.9
V. Guzmán sub	20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
Bruno Mendez sub	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.9
F. Arce sub	11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, head-to-head & standings

The numbers behind Guadalajara Chivas v Toluca — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Guadalajara ChivasDLWDL

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

TolucaLLWLD

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1 scored / 1 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Guadalajara Chivas 1 · 2 draws · Toluca 3 · 1.5 goals/game

2026-02-28 Toluca 2–0 Guadalajara Chivas
2025-09-21 Guadalajara Chivas 0–3 Toluca
2025-02-16 Toluca 2–1 Guadalajara Chivas
2024-07-07 Guadalajara Chivas 0–0 Toluca
2024-05-12 Toluca 0–0 Guadalajara Chivas
2024-05-09 Guadalajara Chivas 1–0 Toluca

League standing · 2026

Guadalajara Chivas#4 pos20 pts12 pl+7 GD

Toluca#2 pos21 pts12 pl+10 GD

Goals per game

Guadalajara Chivas scored1.58

Toluca scored2.17

Guadalajara Chivas conceded1

Toluca conceded1.33

The full post-match picture

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Frequently asked questions

What was the model’s pick for Guadalajara Chivas v Toluca?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Guadalajara Chivas v Toluca was Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Guadalajara Chivas and Toluca?: In their last 6 meetings, Guadalajara Chivas won 1, Toluca won 3 and there were 2 draws, averaging 1.5 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Guadalajara Chivas and Toluca?: Recent form — Guadalajara Chivas 1W 2D 2L; Toluca 1W 1D 3L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 1 Aug 2026, 04:30 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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