Leon v Guadalajara Chivas prediction

Liga MX · Mon, 09 Nov 2026 02:10 GMT · Estadio León

Updated 6 Nov 2026, 12:43 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Leon · Guadalajara Chivas · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Draw or Away the free pick for Leon v Guadalajara Chivas, Liga MX on Mon, 09 Nov 2026 02:10 GMT.

Free pick

Draw or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Draw or Away in the last 90 days, 68.1% of 1452 landed (95% range 65.7–70.5%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

Predicted on 2 November 2026, before the fixture moved

How often calls like this land: when the model rated draw or away (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 829 of 1,283 times (64.6%), against an average rating of 69.6%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Leon host Guadalajara Chivas in Liga MX on Monday 9 November (kick-off 02:10 UK); the model’s free pick is the draw or Guadalajara Chivas, a Bronze-tier call.

The key numbers

Guadalajara Chivas have conceded 14 goals, the fewest of the 18 clubs (2026 so far, after 15 games, ranked per game).

Leon have scored in 10 consecutive matches in all competitions. Guadalajara Chivas have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions. Guadalajara Chivas are unbeaten in their last five matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Six of Leon’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in nine of Leon’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Leon have five wins, one draw and one defeat in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 2.29 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.00. Leon have scored 22 goals, the ninth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026 so far, after 15 games, ranked per game). Leon have conceded 20 goals, the third-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Six of Guadalajara Chivas’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (40%). Both teams scored in eight of Guadalajara Chivas’s last 15 results in all competitions (53%). Away from home, Guadalajara Chivas have four wins, four draws and no defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 0.75. Guadalajara Chivas have scored 25 goals, the sixth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026 so far, after 15 games, ranked per game).

Leon (seventh) and Guadalajara Chivas (second) are seven points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Guadalajara Chivas the stronger side, 139 rating points above Leon (Guadalajara Chivas 1725, Leon 1586, after at least 343 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 19 March 2026, finished Guadalajara Chivas 5–0 Leon.

Team news

Predicted Leon XI (4-1-4-1): O. Garcia, J. Romaña, J. Possu, I. Moreno, S. Vegas, D. Arcila, R. Echeverria, I. Rodriguez, E. Guerra, F. Beltrán, D. Cambindo — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, D. Arcila (4.2 per match over 20 appearances, eight goals and two assists) and O. Garcia (3.7 per match over 19 appearances) have been Leon’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Leon (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), D. Arcila averages 2.0 key passes per 90 over 1532 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. O. Garcia averages 3.6 saves per 90 over 1820 minutes, with two or more saves in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Guadalajara Chivas XI (3-4-2-1): R. Rangel, D. Aguirre, D. Campillo Del Campo, L. Rey, R. González, R. Alvarado, R. Ledezma, O. Govea, B. Gonzalez, B. Gutierrez, R. Marin — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, R. Alvarado (5.5 per match over 16 appearances, five goals) and L. Romo (4.6 per match over 13 appearances, two assists) have been Guadalajara Chivas’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Guadalajara Chivas (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), R. Alvarado averages 1.6 shots per 90 over 2371 minutes, with a shot in eight of the last 10 appearances. L. Romo averages 2.0 tackles per 90 over 1661 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Mon, 09 Nov 2026 02:10 GMT · Liga MX · Estadio León
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Leon 2 · draws 0 · Guadalajara Chivas 4 · 3 goals/game
Recent form: Leon 1W 2D 2L · Guadalajara Chivas 3W 2D 0L

Leon v Guadalajara Chivas (Liga MX): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 6 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.63 / 1.63

Goals

against 1.38 / 1 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75

over 8 matches

4.25 / 7.5

Corners

against 6 / 5.5 · 3 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5.63 / 5.5

Shots on target

against 4.75 / 4.25 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.63 / 1.63

Cards

against 2.5 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 2 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 2 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Leon for / against	Line	Guadalajara Chivas for / against
Goals scored	1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	2.75our book	1.63 for · 1 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	4.25 for · 6 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	7.5 for · 5.5 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	14 for · 15.25 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	15.13 for · 11 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5.63 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5.5 for · 4.25 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	12.88 for · 12.88 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.75 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.63 for · 2.5 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.63 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5

Leon

Leon Goalkeeper

Leon — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
O. Garcia	19	911730 min	713.7 /90	150.8 /90	10.1 /90
I. Martinez	2	90180 min	52.5 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90

Leon — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leon before kick-off, to 2 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
O. Garcia n 8	90.8	3.5 8/6

Leon Defensive

Leon — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Juan José Guevara Possu	20	911812 min	432.1 /90	180.9 /90	110.5 /90	1055.2 /90	311.5 /90	70.3 /90
I. Moreno	20	741484 min	503 /90	161 /90	30.2 /90	814.9 /90	120.7 /90	10.1 /90
Jhohan Romaña	18	891595 min	271.5 /90	150.8 /90	90.5 /90	804.5 /90	150.8 /90	40.2 /90
S. Vegas	15	751120 min	332.7 /90	231.8 /90	50.4 /90	504 /90	262.1 /90	60.5 /90
S. Reyes	10	59592 min	40.6 /90	60.9 /90	10.2 /90	203 /90	101.5 /90	10.2 /90
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Leon — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leon before kick-off, to 2 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Juan José Guevara Possu n 8	90	1.6 7/4	1 6/2	—
D. Arcila n 8	77	0.4 2/1	1.6 5/4	—
I. Moreno n 8	83.9	0.3 2/0	0.9 4/2	—
Fernando Beltrán n 8	45.3	0.5 1/1	1.5 4/2	—
O. Garcia n 8	90.8	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
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Leon — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leon before kick-off, to 2 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Juan José Guevara Possu n 8	90	2.4 6/5
D. Arcila n 8	77	1.3 4/3
I. Moreno n 8	83.9	3.2 7/6
Fernando Beltrán n 8	45.3	1.2 4/1
I. Rodriguez n 8	63	2 6/2
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Leon Attacking

Leon — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
D. Cambindo	19	631196 min	70.5 /90	40.3 /90	493.7 /90	221.7 /90	191.4 /90	241.8 /90
A. Alvarado	15	42635 min	60.9 /90	10.1 /90	192.7 /90	81.1 /90	121.7 /90	50.7 /90
D. Arcila	20	771532 min	80.5 /90	20.1 /90	412.4 /90	281.6 /90	342 /90	130.8 /90
Fernando Beltrán	20	551092 min	00 /90	40.3 /90	141.2 /90	70.6 /90	312.6 /90	151.2 /90
I. Rodriguez	19	781488 min	00 /90	10.1 /90	10.1 /90	00 /90	30.2 /90	50.3 /90
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Leon — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leon before kick-off, to 2 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Juan José Guevara Possu n 8	90	0.4 2/1	0 0/0
D. Arcila n 8	77	1.6 4/3	1 3/2
I. Moreno n 8	83.9	0.5 2/2	0.1 1/0
Fernando Beltrán n 8	45.3	1.7 5/1	1 4/0
O. Garcia n 8	90.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Leon — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Leon before kick-off, to 2 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Juan José Guevara Possu n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
D. Arcila n 8	77	0.1 1/0	0.1 1/0
I. Moreno n 8	83.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Fernando Beltrán n 8	45.3	0 0/0	0.5 2/0
O. Garcia n 8	90.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Guadalajara Chivas

Guadalajara Chivas Goalkeeper

Guadalajara Chivas — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
R. Rangel	14	901260 min	433.1 /90	60.4 /90	00 /90
Óscar Whalley	2	90180 min	52.5 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90

Guadalajara Chivas — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Guadalajara Chivas before kick-off, to 2 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
R. Rangel n 8	90	3.2 8/4
Óscar Whalley n 8	90	3.2 6/5

Guadalajara Chivas Defensive

Guadalajara Chivas — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Campillo Del Campo	15	801197 min	131 /90	282.1 /90	50.4 /90	493.7 /90	90.7 /90	10.1 /90
L. Romo	12	881054 min	252.1 /90	221.9 /90	30.3 /90	605.1 /90	131.1 /90	00 /90
D. Aguirre	12	841005 min	222 /90	90.8 /90	20.2 /90	433.9 /90	191.7 /90	20.2 /90
L. Rey	9	64579 min	132 /90	121.9 /90	50.8 /90	294.5 /90	40.6 /90	10.2 /90
J. Castillo	2	82164 min	31.6 /90	10.5 /90	00 /90	73.8 /90	31.6 /90	00 /90
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Guadalajara Chivas — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Guadalajara Chivas before kick-off, to 2 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
R. Alvarado n 8	89.9	0.8 5/1	2.3 8/4	—
R. González n 8	82.1	1.4 5/2	0.3 2/0	—
D. Campillo Del Campo n 8	80.8	0.4 2/1	0.1 1/0	—
R. Ledezma n 8	56.8	0.8 4/0	0 0/0	—
R. Rangel n 8	90	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
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Guadalajara Chivas — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Guadalajara Chivas before kick-off, to 2 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
R. Alvarado n 8	89.9	2.4 7/4
R. González n 8	82.1	2.9 7/4
D. Campillo Del Campo n 8	80.8	0.8 4/2
R. Ledezma n 8	56.8	2.2 6/2
R. Marin n 8	67.1	0.7 4/0
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Guadalajara Chivas Attacking

Guadalajara Chivas — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
R. Marin	14	65908 min	30.3 /90	20.2 /90	131.3 /90	70.7 /90	90.9 /90	30.3 /90
E. Alvarez	13	43563 min	10.2 /90	30.5 /90	121.9 /90	71.1 /90	193 /90	50.8 /90
Á. Sepúlveda	9	54483 min	10.2 /90	20.4 /90	112 /90	40.7 /90	50.9 /90	20.4 /90
A. Gonzalez	5	55276 min	00 /90	00 /90	92.9 /90	51.6 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90
J. Hernandez	2	2142 min	00 /90	00 /90	12.1 /90	12.1 /90	12.1 /90	12.1 /90
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Guadalajara Chivas — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Guadalajara Chivas before kick-off, to 2 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
R. Alvarado n 8	89.9	1.9 6/4	1 5/3
R. González n 8	82.1	0.4 2/1	0 0/0
D. Campillo Del Campo n 8	80.8	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
R. Ledezma n 8	56.8	0.6 2/1	0 0/0
R. Rangel n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Guadalajara Chivas — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Guadalajara Chivas before kick-off, to 2 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
R. Alvarado n 8	89.9	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
R. González n 8	82.1	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
D. Campillo Del Campo n 8	80.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Ledezma n 8	56.8	0 0/0	0 0/0
R. Rangel n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Leon v Guadalajara Chivas — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

LeonDLWDL

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

Guadalajara ChivasDDWWW

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · 1.6 scored / 0.8 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Leon 2 · 0 draws · Guadalajara Chivas 4 · 3 goals/game

2026-03-19 Guadalajara Chivas 5–0 Leon
2025-01-29 Leon 2–1 Guadalajara Chivas
2024-09-19 Guadalajara Chivas 2–0 Leon
2024-03-09 Guadalajara Chivas 1–2 Leon
2023-07-04 Leon 1–2 Guadalajara Chivas
2023-04-16 Leon 0–2 Guadalajara Chivas

League standing · 2026

Leon#7 pos22 pts15 pl+2 GD

Guadalajara Chivas#2 pos29 pts15 pl+11 GD

Goals per game

Leon scored1.47

Guadalajara Chivas scored1.67

Leon conceded1.33

Guadalajara Chivas conceded0.93

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Leon v Guadalajara Chivas?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Leon v Guadalajara Chivas is Draw or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between Leon and Guadalajara Chivas?: In their last 6 meetings, Leon won 2, Guadalajara Chivas won 4 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Leon and Guadalajara Chivas?: Recent form — Leon 1W 2D 2L; Guadalajara Chivas 3W 2D 0L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 6 Nov 2026, 12:43 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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