Toluca v Monterrey prediction

Liga MX · Sun, 08 Nov 2026 01:00 GMT · Estadio Nemesio Díez

Updated 7 Nov 2026, 12:08 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Toluca · Monterrey · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Over 2.5 goals the free pick for Toluca v Monterrey, Liga MX on Sun, 08 Nov 2026 01:00 GMT.

Free pick

Over 2.5 goals

Best price: 1.44 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Over 2.5 goals in the last 90 days, 68.3% of 515 landed (95% range 64.2–72.2%); it had given them 75.8% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. The model has been overconfident here: weigh its calls in this market with that in mind. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated over 2.5 goals between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 546 of 850 times (64.2%), against an average rating of 67.6%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Toluca host Monterrey in Liga MX on Sunday 8 November (kick-off 01:00 UK); the model’s free pick is Over 2.5 goals.

The key numbers

Toluca have scored in 14 consecutive matches in all competitions. Toluca are winless in their last seven matches in all competitions.

Form and the table

Eight of Toluca’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in nine of Toluca’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Toluca have five wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 8 home matches in all competitions — 2.13 points per game, scoring 2.50 and conceding 1.00. Toluca have scored 31 goals, the third-most of the 18 clubs (2026 so far, after 15 games, ranked per game). Toluca have conceded 21 goals, the sixth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Nine of Monterrey’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (60%). Both teams scored in 10 of Monterrey’s last 15 results in all competitions (67%). Away from home, Monterrey have one win, two draws and three defeats in their last 6 away matches in all competitions — 0.83 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 2.00. Monterrey have scored 26 goals, the fourth-most of the 18 clubs (2026 so far, after 14 games, ranked per game). Monterrey have conceded 21 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Toluca (sixth) and Monterrey (ninth) are three points apart, 2026 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Toluca the stronger side, 66 rating points above Monterrey (Toluca 1622, Monterrey 1556, after at least 354 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

Toluca are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Monterrey. The most recent meeting, on 7 September 2026, finished Toluca 2–0 Monterrey.

Team news

Predicted Toluca XI (4-2-3-1): L. Garcia, F. Pereira, J. Gallardo, B. Mendez, S. Simón, F. Romero, Helinho, N. Castro, É. Gutiérrez, J. Diaz, Paulinho — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Helinho (5.4 per match over 26 appearances, eight goals and nine assists) and F. Viñas (4.8 per match over 18 appearances, 11 goals) have been Toluca’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Toluca (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Helinho averages 3.2 key passes per 90 over 1724 minutes, with a key pass in 10 of the last 10 appearances. F. Viñas averages 3.0 shots per 90 over 1673 minutes, with a shot in nine of the last 10 appearances.

Predicted Monterrey XI (4-2-3-1): E. Andrada, G. Arteaga, R. Chávez, V. Guzmán, C. Salcedo, C. Cantu, L. Ocampos, Ó. Torres, J. Corona, O. Pineda, H. Cuypers — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Lucas Ocampos (5.7 per match over 21 appearances, nine goals and six assists) and O. Pineda (4.5 per match over 16 appearances, three goals and two assists) have been Monterrey’s most influential players 2026, all competitions. In numbers for Monterrey (2026, all competitions, before kick-off), Lucas Ocampos averages 1.7 key passes per 90 over 1579 minutes, with a key pass in eight of the last 10 appearances. O. Pineda averages 1.3 key passes per 90 over 1563 minutes, with a key pass in five of the last 10 appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 01:00 GMT · Liga MX · Estadio Nemesio Díez
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Toluca 5 · draws 0 · Monterrey 1 · 3.33 goals/game
Recent form: Toluca 0W 4D 1L · Monterrey 2W 2D 1L

Toluca v Monterrey (Liga MX): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 7 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.75 / 1.63

Goals

against 1.88 / 1.38 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

8.25 / 6.38

Corners

against 4.75 / 3.38 · 4 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

6.38 / 5.25

Shots on target

against 6.25 / 4.88 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

1.75 / 2.38

Cards

against 1.75 / 1.88 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 1 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 1 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Toluca for / against	Line	Monterrey for / against
Goals scored	1.75 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5	3.5our book	1.63 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	8.25 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	6.38 for · 3.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	20.63 for · 16.38 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	14.13 for · 10.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	6.38 for · 6.25 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5.25 for · 4.88 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	13.5 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	10.88 for · 11.63 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	1.75 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	2.38 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5

Toluca

Toluca Goalkeeper

Toluca — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
L. Garcia	15	891335 min	402.7 /90	90.6 /90	00 /90
H. Gonzalez	11	84922 min	232.2 /90	70.7 /90	00 /90

Toluca — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toluca before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
L. Garcia n 8	88.1	3.4 7/4
H. Gonzalez n 8	81.5	2.6 6/2

Toluca Defensive

Toluca — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
F. Pereira	22	861895 min	442.1 /90	361.7 /90	150.7 /90	1487 /90	291.4 /90	50.2 /90
J. Gallardo	22	851864 min	412 /90	231.1 /90	70.3 /90	974.7 /90	401.9 /90	20.1 /90
Bruno Mendez	18	891593 min	221.2 /90	392.2 /90	100.6 /90	724.1 /90	130.7 /90	30.2 /90
Everardo López	18	721303 min	281.9 /90	191.3 /90	60.4 /90	422.9 /90	201.4 /90	20.1 /90
D. Barbosa	13	55719 min	374.6 /90	91.1 /90	10.1 /90	587.3 /90	141.8 /90	40.5 /90
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Toluca — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toluca before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Helinho n 8	69.6	0.6 2/2	0.5 2/1	—
F. Romero n 8	84.4	1.5 6/3	0.4 3/0	—
F. Pereira n 8	90	1.6 7/4	1.3 5/2	—
J. Gallardo n 8	90	2.4 7/6	0.8 6/0	—
J. Diaz n 8	37	0 0/0	2.1 3/1	—
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Toluca — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toluca before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Helinho n 8	69.6	1 5/1
F. Romero n 8	84.4	2 8/5
F. Pereira n 8	90	2.3 7/6
J. Gallardo n 8	90	1.8 6/5
J. Diaz n 8	37	0 0/0
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Toluca Attacking

Toluca — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
F. Viñas	18	671202 min	110.8 /90	00 /90	463.4 /90	201.5 /90	181.3 /90	90.7 /90
Paulinho	13	77996 min	80.7 /90	10.1 /90	403.6 /90	151.4 /90	70.6 /90	30.3 /90
I. López	3	46139 min	10.6 /90	10.6 /90	31.9 /90	10.6 /90	21.3 /90	00 /90
Helinho	25	651635 min	80.4 /90	90.5 /90	653.6 /90	311.7 /90	603.3 /90	462.5 /90
F. Romero	23	841937 min	00 /90	10 /90	90.4 /90	20.1 /90	200.9 /90	40.2 /90
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Toluca — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toluca before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Helinho n 8	69.6	3.6 8/6	1.9 8/2
F. Romero n 8	84.4	0.7 4/1	0 0/0
F. Pereira n 8	90	1.8 5/4	0.1 1/0
J. Gallardo n 8	90	1.1 5/3	0.3 2/0
J. Diaz n 8	37	3 5/3	0.9 2/1
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Toluca — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toluca before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Helinho n 8	69.6	0.3 2/0	0.8 5/0
F. Romero n 8	84.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Pereira n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Gallardo n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Diaz n 8	37	0 0/0	0.6 2/0
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Monterrey

Monterrey Goalkeeper

Monterrey — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded
L. Cardenas	10	93925 min	212 /90	151.5 /90
E. Andrada	10	91906 min	303 /90	30.3 /90
Santiago Mele	3	87260 min	72.4 /90	20.7 /90

Monterrey — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monterrey before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
L. Cardenas n 8	93.1	1.8 3/2
E. Andrada n 8	90	3.1 7/5
Santiago Mele n 8	88.8	2.3 5/4

Monterrey Defensive

Monterrey — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
Ricardo Chávez	20	721443 min	291.8 /90	221.4 /90	40.2 /90	825.1 /90	281.7 /90	40.2 /90
Victor Guzmán	17	851453 min	311.9 /90	251.5 /90	60.4 /90	694.3 /90	181.1 /90	10.1 /90
Gerardo Arteaga	17	791351 min	281.9 /90	191.3 /90	10.1 /90	634.2 /90	70.5 /90	20.1 /90
Carlos Salcedo	16	731166 min	141.1 /90	231.8 /90	80.6 /90	534.1 /90	161.2 /90	50.4 /90
Alonso Aceves	14	59828 min	182 /90	131.4 /90	20.2 /90	374 /90	80.9 /90	20.2 /90
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Monterrey — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monterrey before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Ricardo Chávez n 8	82.4	1.8 7/5	1.1 7/1	—
Jesus Corona n 8	72	0.8 4/1	2.2 6/4	—
Lucas Ocampos n 8	76.3	0.7 4/1	2.5 8/6	—
Óliver Torres n 8	69.8	1.3 5/2	0.8 3/2	—
Luca Orellano n 8	46.3	0.7 3/0	2.7 6/4	—
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Monterrey — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monterrey before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Ricardo Chávez n 8	82.4	2.5 7/4
Jesus Corona n 8	72	1.3 7/1
Lucas Ocampos n 8	76.3	0.7 3/2
Óliver Torres n 8	69.8	2.3 6/4
Luca Orellano n 8	46.3	0.7 2/1
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Monterrey Attacking

Monterrey — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
H. Cuypers	18	781401 min	90.6 /90	10.1 /90	342.2 /90	181.2 /90	191.2 /90	60.4 /90
Roberto de la Rosa	9	49438 min	40.8 /90	20.4 /90	153.1 /90	61.2 /90	61.2 /90	10.2 /90
U. Đurđević	7	38268 min	00 /90	00 /90	93 /90	51.7 /90	20.7 /90	10.3 /90
A. Martial	3	56167 min	00 /90	10.5 /90	63.2 /90	31.6 /90	42.2 /90	10.5 /90
A. De Nigris	2	2856 min	00 /90	00 /90	34.8 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90
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Monterrey — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monterrey before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Ricardo Chávez n 8	82.4	1 6/1	0.1 1/0
Jesus Corona n 8	72	1.4 5/3	0.5 3/0
Lucas Ocampos n 8	76.3	4 7/7	1.3 7/2
Óliver Torres n 8	69.8	0.3 2/0	0.2 1/0
Luca Orellano n 8	46.3	2.7 5/2	0.7 2/1
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Monterrey — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Monterrey before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Ricardo Chávez n 8	82.4	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
Jesus Corona n 8	72	0.2 1/0	0.2 1/0
Lucas Ocampos n 8	76.3	0.3 2/0	0.3 2/0
Óliver Torres n 8	69.8	0 0/0	0.6 3/1
Luca Orellano n 8	46.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Toluca v Monterrey — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

TolucaLDDDD

Last 5: 0W 4D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1.8 conceded per game

MonterreyDWWLD

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Toluca 5 · 0 draws · Monterrey 1 · 3.33 goals/game

2026-09-07 Toluca 2–0 Monterrey
2026-01-11 Monterrey 0–1 Toluca
2025-12-07 Toluca 3–2 Monterrey
2025-12-04 Monterrey 1–0 Toluca
2025-09-25 Toluca 6–2 Monterrey
2025-05-11 Toluca 2–1 Monterrey

League standing · 2026

Toluca#6 pos24 pts15 pl+10 GD

Monterrey#9 pos21 pts14 pl+5 GD

Goals per game

Toluca scored2.07

Monterrey scored1.86

Toluca conceded1.4

Monterrey conceded1.5

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Expected goals (xG)

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Toluca v Monterrey?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Toluca v Monterrey is Over 2.5 goals (best price 1.44 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Toluca and Monterrey?: In their last 6 meetings, Toluca won 5, Monterrey won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 3.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Toluca and Monterrey?: Recent form — Toluca 0W 4D 1L; Monterrey 2W 2D 1L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 7 Nov 2026, 12:08 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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