LilleEstac Troyes

Lille v Estac Troyes result

Full-time · Lille 2–0 Estac Troyes

Ligue 1 · · Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy

Updated · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Lille · Estac Troyes · Head-to-head

The model’s pre-match pick

Lille 2–0 Estac Troyes — Lille won this Ligue 1 match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home win.

Free pick
Home win
Best price: 1.47 at Betano
What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →
This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.
The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home win in the last 90 days, 79.6% of 285 landed (95% range 74.6–83.9%); it had given them 75.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →
How often calls like this land: when the model rated a home win between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 193 of 282 times (68.4%), against an average rating of 68.4%. How we measure →
Match report, in numbers

What xG said

xG said Lille: 2.05 to 0.36 in expected goals, from 13 shots to 8, ahead on xG from the first minute (per-shot expected goals for this match).

The result

Lille beat Estac Troyes 2–0 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy in Ligue 1 on Sunday 13 September. Lille have scored in five consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

Lille led 1–0 at half-time. The goals — Lille: Tiago Santos (18’, assisted by Dilane Bakwa) and E. Mbappé (90’, assisted by Maurits Kjærgaard).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s two key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Tiago Santos’s goal on 18 minutes.

Discipline

The bookings — Lille: Olivier Giroud (82’).

What it changes

Lille stay first after this result (four league matches played).

Estac Troyes move down from ninth to 10th (four league matches played).

Lille’s two-goal margin was the biggest of round 4, across nine matches.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, Tiago Santos (Lille) 6.2, Dilane Bakwa (Lille) 5.5 and E. Mbappé (Lille) 4.9 led the match.

Head-to-head

Lille are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Estac Troyes.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Lille to win, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included.

Next up

Lille next host Lyon on 21 November 2026.

Estac Troyes next host Le Havre on 21 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for Lille: Lille v Lyon, Saturday 21 November — the preview. Next for Estac Troyes: Estac Troyes v Le Havre, Saturday 21 November — the preview.

The Numbers

  • Result: Lille 2–0 Estac Troyes · Ligue 1
  • Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre Mauroy · Lille
  • Referee: Romain Lissorgue, France
  • Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
  • Head-to-head (last 6): Lille 3 · draws 1 · Estac Troyes 2 · 2.83 goals/game
  • Recent form: Lille 2W 1D 2L · Estac Troyes 2W 1D 2L

Lille 2–0 Estac Troyes (Ligue 1): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 27 September 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.25 / 1.63
Goals
against 1 / 1.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 2.75
over 8 matches
4.13 / 6.25
Corners
against 5.38 / 2.75 · 2 of the last 5 over 9.5
over 8 matches
4.88 / 4.75
Shots on target
against 4 / 4.25 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5
over 8 matches
2.13 / 1.75
Cards
against 2.5 / 1.13 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5
over 8 matches
246
Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 8 September 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 8 September 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per gameLille for / againstLineEstac Troyes for / against
Goals scored
1.25 for · 1 against n 8
2.75our book
1.63 for · 1.25 against n 8
Corners won
4.13 for · 5.38 against n 8
9.5standard
6.25 for · 2.75 against n 8
Shots
10.88 for · 13.13 against n 8
19.5standard
14.38 for · 12 against n 8
Shots on target
4.88 for · 4 against n 8
8.5standard
4.75 for · 4.25 against n 8
Fouls committed
10.25 for · 12.88 against n 8
21.5standard
10.88 for · 13 against n 8
Cards shown
2.13 for · 2.5 against n 8
3.5standard
1.75 for · 1.13 against n 8

Referee: Romain Lissorgue, France.

Lille

Lille Goalkeeper

Lille — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
B. Özer490360 min153.8 /9051.3 /9000 /90
Lille — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lille before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
B. Özer n 890
2.97/2

Lille Defensive

Lille — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
Alexsandro Ribeiro490360 min82 /9020.5 /9071.8 /90225.5 /9020.5 /9000 /90
N. Ngoy490360 min30.8 /9051.3 /9041 /90123 /9041 /9000 /90
Tiago Santos490360 min92.3 /9041 /9000 /90246 /9041 /9000 /90
R. Perraud475299 min72.1 /9010.3 /9030.9 /90123.6 /9041.2 /9020.6 /90
C. Verdonk14545 min36 /9000 /9000 /9036 /9012 /9000 /90
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Lille — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lille before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
Tiago Santos n 881.5
1.46/2
1.98/4
A. Ouzenadji
N. Ngoy n 890
15/2
0.95/2
M. Diaz
Alexsandro Ribeiro n 882.3
0.84/1
1.15/2
M. Diaz
B. Özer n 890
00/0
0.43/0
—
H. Haraldsson n 884.4
1.25/2
27/4
—
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Lille — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lille before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
Tiago Santos n 881.5
2.26/5
Alexsandro Ribeiro n 882.3
1.96/6
N. Ngoy n 890
0.84/2
H. Haraldsson n 884.4
1.25/3
R. Perraud n 874.6
1.87/5
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Lille Attacking

Lille — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
O. Giroud370210 min10.4 /9020.9 /9031.3 /9020.9 /9031.3 /9000 /90
G. Perrin339117 min00 /9010.8 /9000 /9000 /9010.8 /9010.8 /90
D. Bakwa33296 min10.9 /9000 /9010.9 /9010.9 /9010.9 /9010.9 /90
A. Ueda255110 min21.6 /9000 /9032.5 /9032.5 /9000 /9000 /90
H. Haraldsson484336 min10.3 /9000 /9051.3 /9041.1 /9071.9 /9020.5 /90
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Lille — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lille before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
Tiago Santos n 881.5
1.45/4
0.42/1
Alexsandro Ribeiro n 882.3
14/2
0.11/0
N. Ngoy n 890
0.42/1
0.11/0
B. Özer n 890
00/0
00/0
H. Haraldsson n 884.4
1.34/3
1.14/2
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Lille — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Lille before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
Alexsandro Ribeiro n 882.3
0.11/0
00/0
Tiago Santos n 881.5
0.11/0
00/0
B. Özer n 890
00/0
00/0
N. Ngoy n 890
00/0
00/0
H. Haraldsson n 884.4
0.32/0
00/0
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Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes Goalkeeper

Estac Troyes — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsSavesGoals concededPenalties saved
P. Beach390270 min113.7 /9072.3 /9000 /90
Estac Troyes — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estac Troyes before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
PlayerMinsSaves 2+3+
P. Beach n 390
3.72/2

Estac Troyes Defensive

Estac Troyes — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsTacklesInterceptionsBlocksDuels wonFouls committedYellow cards
A. Monfray390270 min93 /9062 /9020.7 /90165.3 /9000 /9000 /90
A. Ouzenadji390270 min62 /9041.3 /9020.7 /90186 /9010.3 /9000 /90
M. Diaz390270 min41.3 /9051.7 /9010.3 /9093 /9031 /9020.7 /90
L. Maronnier285170 min63.2 /9021.1 /9021.1 /90105.3 /9021.1 /9000 /90
Y. Titi15555 min00 /9000 /9011.6 /9023.3 /9000 /9000 /90
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Estac Troyes — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estac Troyes before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsFouls committed 1+2+Fouls won 1+2+Likely duel
M. Diop n 887.6
1.36/3
1.86/4
—
A. Monfray n 890
0.93/2
0.32/0
—
M. Diaz n 890
0.84/1
0.85/1
Alexsandro Ribeiro
A. Ouzenadji n 864.9
0.74/0
2.46/5
Tiago Santos
P. Beach n 390
00/0
0.31/0
—
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Estac Troyes — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estac Troyes before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsTackles 1+2+
A. Ouzenadji n 864.9
2.96/5
A. Monfray n 890
1.96/4
M. Diop n 887.6
1.37/3
M. Diaz n 890
1.16/3
R. Ripart n 856
1.43/2
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Estac Troyes Attacking

Estac Troyes — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
PlayerAppsAvg minsGoalsAssistsShotsShots on targetKey passesDribbles completed
R. Ripart381242 min10.4 /9000 /9072.6 /9031.1 /9010.4 /9000 /90
K. Diawara344132 min00 /9010.7 /9010.7 /9000 /9032 /9032 /90
J. Le Douaron13434 min12.6 /9000 /9025.3 /9012.6 /9000 /9000 /90
Timothee Nkada12020 min00 /9000 /9029 /9014.5 /9014.5 /9000 /90
M. Diop390270 min00 /9000 /9031 /9000 /9010.3 /9000 /90
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Estac Troyes — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estac Troyes before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsShots 1+2+Shots on target 1+2+
M. Diop n 887.6
0.95/1
0.11/0
A. Ouzenadji n 864.9
0.53/0
0.21/0
A. Monfray n 890
0.42/1
0.32/0
M. Diaz n 890
0.43/0
0.32/0
P. Beach n 390
00/0
00/0
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Estac Troyes — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Estac Troyes before kick-off, to 8 September 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
PlayerMinsGoals 1+2+Assists 1+2+
A. Ouzenadji n 864.9
0.21/0
0.32/0
A. Monfray n 890
00/0
00/0
P. Beach n 390
00/0
00/0
M. Diaz n 890
00/0
00/0
M. Diop n 887.6
00/0
00/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
LilleEstac Troyes
63%Possession37%
1.65Expected goals (xG)0.38
13Shots8
6Shots on target1
5Shots off target6
2Blocked shots1
11Shots inside the box5
2Corners5
3Offsides2
11Fouls20
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
1Saves4
626Passes340
89%Pass accuracy79%

Lille Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
B. Özer9000000006.6
Tiago Santos9010210108
N. Ngoy9000000107.2
Alexsandro Ribeiro9000000007.2
R. Perraud9000100006.6
N. Bentaleb9000003007.7
N. Mukau8600000107.2
D. Bakwa7101102106.5
B. Önal7100001207.2
A. Ueda7100311006.6
H. Haraldsson6100001206.9
M. Kjærgaard sub2901113007.2
G. Perrin sub1900000006.7
E. Mbappé sub1910331007.9
O. Giroud sub19000000Y6.5
B. André sub900000006.6

Estac Troyes Player Stats

PlayerMinGAShSoTKPTklCardsRating
P. Beach9000000007.5
A. Monfray9000202206.6
M. Diaz9000000006.5
A. Ouzenadji9000000406.2
D. Karim9000001206.5
J. Le Douaron9000200206.6
A. Mille8000001306.7
Hugo Picard8000102306.3
M. Diop7500100507.2
K. Diawara7500000306.3
L. Maronnier4500001206.7
Noah Donkor sub4500000006.2
I. Gomis sub1500000106.5
Timothee Nkada sub1500000006.7
Yacouba Kone sub1000110006.2
R. Ripart sub1000000106.6

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Lille v Estac Troyes — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form
LilleLWDWL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.4 scored / 1.4 conceded per game
Estac TroyesWLDWL
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 1.6 scored / 1.6 conceded per game
Head-to-head last 6
Lille 3 · 1 draw · Estac Troyes 2 · 2.83 goals/game
  • 2023-06-03 Estac Troyes 1–1 Lille
  • 2023-01-15 Lille 5–1 Estac Troyes
  • 2023-01-08 Lille 2–0 Estac Troyes
  • 2022-05-01 Estac Troyes 3–0 Lille
  • 2021-12-04 Lille 2–1 Estac Troyes
  • 2018-01-20 Estac Troyes 1–0 Lille
League standing · 2026/27
Lille#2 pos21 pts10 pl+7 GD
Estac Troyes#16 pos8 pts10 pl-10 GD
Goals per game
Lille scored1.4
Estac Troyes scored0.7
Lille conceded0.7
Estac Troyes conceded1.7

Shot Map and Expected Goals

Lille 2.05 xG from 13 shots, Estac Troyes 0.36 from 8. Every mark is one shot, placed where it was taken and sized by the chance it had of becoming a goal. Filled marks with a white ring are goals.

Maurits Kjærgaard 89' · 0.39 xGEthan Mbappé 90' · 0.35 xGAyase Ueda 26' · 0.33 xGMouhamed Diop 51' · 0.14 xGDilane Bakwa 70' · 0.13 xGAyase Ueda 39' · 0.11 xGGaetan Perrin 82' · 0.10 xGJeremy Le Douaron 48' · 0.06 xGRomain Perraud 76' · 0.06 xGDilane Bakwa 1' · 0.05 xGEthan Mbappé 88' · 0.05 xGAdrien Monfray 51' · 0.04 xGAdrien Monfray 50' · 0.04 xGAyase Ueda 13' · 0.03 xGYacouba Koné 81' · 0.03 xGJeremy Le Douaron 35' · 0.02 xGTiago Santos 86' · 0.02 xGHugo Picard 23' · 0.02 xGAdrien Monfray 47' · 0.01 xGEthan Mbappé 92' · 0.40 xG · goalTiago Santos 17' · 0.03 xG · goal
Lille (attacking right)Estac Troyes (attacking left)mark size = expected goals
TeamShotsGoalsxG
Lille1322.05
Estac Troyes800.36

Shot locations and expected-goals values from per-shot data. Per-shot tables, situation and shot-type breakdowns are part of TACTIX Pro.

Expected Goals Race

At half-time, Lille led on xG, 0.55 to 0.04. At full time, Lille led on xG, 2.05 to 0.36. The widest gap was 1.69 xG to Lille, in the 92nd minute.

xG timeline (cumulative)
2.01.000′15′30′45′60′75′90′105′MinutesCumulative xGGoal - Lille 17 minGoal - Lille 92 min
Lille 2.05 xGEstac Troyes 0.36 xGdots = goals · 21 shots

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Lille v Estac Troyes?
TACTIX’s free model pick for Lille v Estac Troyes was Home win (best price 1.47 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Estac Troyes?
In their last 6 meetings, Lille won 3, Estac Troyes won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.83 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Lille and Estac Troyes?
Recent form — Lille 2W 1D 2L; Estac Troyes 2W 1D 2L.

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