Marseille v Lille prediction
Team pages: Marseille · Lille · Head-to-head
TACTIX’s free model pick for Marseille v Lille, Ligue 1 on Sat, 16 Jan 2027 16:00 GMT posts shortly before kick-off. Form, head-to-head and league standing for both sides are below.
The match
Marseille host Lille in Ligue 1 on Saturday 16 January (kick-off 16:00 UK).
The key numbers
Lille are unbeaten in the last six meetings with Marseille, every meeting checked.
Form and the table
Eight of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (53%). Both teams scored in seven of Marseille’s last 15 results in all competitions (47%). At home, Marseille have three wins, one draw and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.43 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.29. Marseille have scored 14 goals, the second-most (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Marseille have conceded 10 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.
Five of Lille’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (33%). Both teams scored in five of Lille’s last 15 results in all competitions (33%). Away from home, Lille have five wins, no draws and two defeats in their last 7 away matches in all competitions — 2.14 points per game, scoring 1.43 and conceding 0.71. Lille have scored 10 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far). Lille have conceded five goals, the fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.
Marseille (ninth) and Lille (fourth) are five points apart, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Lille the stronger side, 55 rating points above Marseille (Lille 1723, Marseille 1668, after at least 327 rated matches each).
Head-to-head
The most recent meeting, on 22 March 2026, finished Marseille 1–2 Lille.
Team news
Predicted Marseille XI (4-4-2): J. de Lange, Emerson, C. Egan-Riley, T. Weah, N. Aguerd, A. Harit, H. Abdelli, A. Gomes, I. Paixão, A. Gouiri, K. Abdallah — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (4.3 per match over six appearances, one goal) and Amine Gouiri (4.0 per match over nine appearances, five goals and one assist) have been Marseille’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Marseille (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Pierre-Emile Højbjerg averages 0.9 key passes per 90 over 882 minutes, with a key pass in six of the last 10 appearances. Amine Gouiri averages 1.5 shots per 90 over 1047 minutes, with a shot in five of the last 10 appearances.
Predicted Lille XI (4-2-3-1): B. Özer, A. Ribeiro, N. Ngoy, R. Perraud, T. Santos, N. Bentaleb, H. Haraldsson, N. Mukau, E. Mbappé, B. André, O. Giroud — derived from the last 7 line-ups, most-used eleven. By TACTIX Impact, Tiago Santos (4.3 per match over seven appearances, two goals) and Alexsandro Ribeiro (3.7 per match over eight appearances, one goal) have been Lille’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Lille (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Tiago Santos averages 2.1 tackles per 90 over 562 minutes, with a tackle in five of the last seven appearances. Alexsandro Ribeiro averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 810 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last nine appearances.
Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.
The numbers
- Kick-off: · Ligue 1
- Head-to-head (last 6): Marseille 0 · draws 3 · Lille 3 · 2.33 goals/game
- Recent form: Marseille 2W 0D 3L · Lille 2W 1D 2L
Marseille v Lille (Ligue 1): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →
Key stats
Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 18 October 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
| Per game | Marseille for / against | Line | Lille for / against |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 1.38 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 2.5standard | 1.25 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Corners won | 5 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5 | 9.5standard | 3.13 for · 4.75 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots | 12.88 for · 16.63 against n 8 Last 5 | 19.5standard | 10.63 for · 15.13 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Shots on target | 4.25 for · 5.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 8.5standard | 4 for · 4.5 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Fouls committed | 12 for · 10.75 against n 8 Last 5 | 21.5standard | 11.13 for · 14.63 against n 8 Last 5 |
| Cards shown | 1.5 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5 | 3.5standard | 1.25 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5 |
Marseille
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Moumbagna n 8 | 9.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | — |
| T. Mmadi n 3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | — |
| T. Nnadi n 8 | 54.9 | 2.7 | 1.4 | — |
| K. Abdallah n 8 | 39.1 | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| B. Meité n 8 | 80.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| K. Abdallah n 8 | 39.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 |
| T. Mmadi n 3 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Igor Paixão n 8 | 72.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| A. Gouiri n 8 | 70.3 | 1.8 | 1 |
| A. Harit n 8 | 75.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Gouiri n 8 | 70.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| H. Abdelli n 8 | 80.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| A. Harit n 8 | 75.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| T. Weah n 8 | 88.4 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Emerson n 8 | 78.4 | 0 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| Nouhoum Kamissoko n 4 | 26 | 3.5 |
| T. Mmadi n 3 | 9.3 | 3.2 |
| T. Weah n 8 | 88.4 | 2.5 |
| G. Kondogbia n 8 | 52.1 | 2.4 |
| Q. Timber n 8 | 53.9 | 2.1 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| J. de Lange n 8 | 90 | 3.9 |
Lille
| Player | Mins | Fouls committed 1+2+ | Fouls won 1+2+ | Likely duel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Bakwa n 8 | 54.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | — |
| B. André n 8 | 68.1 | 2 | 1.8 | — |
| C. Verdonk n 8 | 22.5 | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| A. Ueda n 8 | 56.6 | 1.6 | 1.2 | — |
| G. Perrin n 8 | 29.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | — |
| Player | Mins | Shots 1+2+ | Shots on target 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ueda n 8 | 56.6 | 3 | 2.2 |
| M. Kjærgaard n 8 | 40.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| E. Mbappé n 8 | 56.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Tiago Santos n 8 | 71.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Félix Correia n 8 | 65.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Player | Mins | Goals 1+2+ | Assists 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ueda n 8 | 56.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 |
| O. Giroud n 8 | 45.5 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
| D. Bakwa n 8 | 54.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| M. Kjærgaard n 8 | 40.6 | 0 | 0.6 |
| Félix Correia n 8 | 65.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Player | Mins | Tackles 1+2+ |
|---|---|---|
| C. Verdonk n 8 | 22.5 | 4.5 |
| B. André n 8 | 68.1 | 3 |
| N. Mukau n 8 | 53.4 | 2.7 |
| G. Perrin n 8 | 29.1 | 2.7 |
| R. Perraud n 8 | 76 | 2.2 |
| Player | Mins | Saves 2+3+ |
|---|---|---|
| Orlando Gill n 8 | 91.8 | 4 |
| B. Özer n 8 | 90 | 3.2 |
The day’s free picks, by email
Every morning at 07:30 UK: the model’s free picks, each with its confidence tier and that tier’s settled record, misses included. No tips, no guarantees, one click to leave.
Form, head-to-head & standings
The numbers behind Marseille v Lille — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)
- 2026-03-22 Marseille 1–2 Lille
- 2025-12-05 Lille 1–0 Marseille
- 2025-05-04 Lille 1–1 Marseille
- 2025-01-14 Marseille 1–1 Lille
- 2024-12-14 Marseille 1–1 Lille
- 2024-04-05 Lille 3–1 Marseille
Frequently asked questions
- What is the head-to-head record between Marseille and Lille?
- In their last 6 meetings, Marseille won 0, Lille won 3 and there were 3 draws, averaging 2.33 goals per game.
- What is the recent form of Marseille and Lille?
- Recent form — Marseille 2W 0D 3L; Lille 2W 1D 2L.
Today’s boards
Every fixture kicking off in the UK day, and the fixtures where the free pick leads with each market.
This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of . How it works → · Report an error
How our model works · Live track record · Predictions are model output, not betting advice.