Toulouse v Strasbourg prediction

Ligue 1 · Fri, 06 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · Stadium de Toulouse

Updated 5 Nov 2026, 21:48 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Toulouse · Strasbourg · Head-to-head

TACTIX model preview

TACTIX’s model makes Home or Draw the free pick for Toulouse v Strasbourg, Ligue 1 on Fri, 06 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT.

Free pick

Home or Draw

Best price: 1.36 at Betano

What this price implies, and its fair odds with the margin removed →

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.4% of 1736 landed (95% range 74.4–78.4%); it had given them 75.1% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,038 of 1,386 times (74.9%), against an average rating of 70.3%. How we measure →

Match preview, in numbers

The match

Toulouse host Strasbourg in Ligue 1 on Friday 6 November (kick-off 19:45 UK); the model’s free pick is Toulouse or the draw, a Bronze-tier call.

Form and the table

11 of Toulouse’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in nine of Toulouse’s last 15 results in all competitions (60%). At home, Toulouse have two wins, two draws and three defeats in their last 7 home matches in all competitions — 1.14 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 1.71. Toulouse have scored 12 goals, the eighth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Toulouse have conceded 13 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 18 clubs.

11 of Strasbourg’s last 15 results in all competitions went over 2.5 goals (73%). Both teams scored in 11 of Strasbourg’s last 15 results in all competitions (73%). Away from home, Strasbourg have two wins, one draw and five defeats in their last 8 away matches in all competitions — 0.88 points per game, scoring 1.38 and conceding 2.00. Strasbourg have scored 17 goals, the fourth-most of the 18 clubs (2026/27 so far, after 9 games). Strasbourg have conceded 19 goals, the fourth-most (shared) of the 18 clubs.

Toulouse (12th) and Strasbourg (13th) are level on points, 2026/27 so far. TACTIX’s Glicko-2 team ratings have Strasbourg the stronger side, 25 rating points above Toulouse (Strasbourg 1629, Toulouse 1604, after at least 254 rated matches each).

Head-to-head

The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse.

Team news

Toulouse have three names on the availability list: A. Donnum (out, Yellow Cards), R. Messali (out, Thigh Injury) and M. Niflore (doubtful, Knee Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-11-05. Predicted Toulouse XI (4-4-2): G. Restes, M. McKenzie, C. Tape, R. Nicolaisen, S. Koumbassa, C. Cásseres, T. Jørgensen, N. Sigur, A. Vossah, J. Russell-Rowe, C. Tengstedt — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, C. Cásseres (7.4 per match over nine appearances, five assists) and Casper Tengstedt (4.6 per match over seven appearances, five goals and one assist) have been Toulouse’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Toulouse (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), C. Cásseres averages 2.7 key passes per 90 over 1126 minutes, with a key pass in nine of the last 10 appearances. Casper Tengstedt averages 3.8 shots per 90 over 496 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last seven appearances.

Strasbourg have two names on the availability list: J. Panichelli (out, Knee Injury) and F. Balde (doubtful, Leg Injury) — the squad report for this match, fetched 2026-11-05. Predicted Strasbourg XI (4-3-3): F. Jörgensen, Oso, J. Mitchell, G. Antwi, A. Coulibaly, G. Reyna, P. Diop, D. Essugo, C. Harder, G. Yassine, J. Ortega — derived from the last 8 line-ups, most-used eleven, one position borrowed or covered. By TACTIX Impact, Gessime Yassine (7.0 per match over nine appearances, four goals and three assists) and Oso (3.9 per match over seven appearances, two assists) have been Strasbourg’s most influential players 2026/27, all competitions. In numbers for Strasbourg (2026/27, all competitions, before kick-off), Gessime Yassine averages 1.9 shots per 90 over 957 minutes, with a shot in seven of the last 10 appearances. Oso averages 1.7 tackles per 90 over 786 minutes, with a tackle in seven of the last nine appearances.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Kick-off: Fri, 06 Nov 2026 19:45 GMT · Ligue 1 · Stadium de Toulouse
Referee: Mathieu Vernice
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 6): Toulouse 2 · draws 1 · Strasbourg 3 · 2 goals/game
Recent form: Toulouse 2W 2D 1L · Strasbourg 1W 0D 4L

Toulouse v Strasbourg (Ligue 1): the key numbers are on this page — and TACTIX’s live, market-by-market track record is one click away (as of 5 November 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.5 / 2.13

Goals

against 1.38 / 1.88 · 2 of the last 5 over 3

over 8 matches

3.75 / 2.63

Corners

against 4 / 4.63 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 8 matches

5 / 5.38

Shots on target

against 3.88 / 5.38 · 2 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 8 matches

2.13 / 1.5

Cards

against 1.5 / 1.75 · 3 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 8 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 1 November 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 1 November 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	Toulouse for / against	Line	Strasbourg for / against
Goals scored	1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5	3our book	2.13 for · 1.88 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3.75 for · 4 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	2.63 for · 4.63 against n 8 Last 5
Shots	12.38 for · 14.13 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	14 for · 15.38 against n 8 Last 5
Shots on target	5 for · 3.88 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5.38 for · 5.38 against n 8 Last 5
Fouls committed	15.88 for · 13 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	11.88 for · 10.13 against n 8 Last 5
Cards shown	2.13 for · 1.5 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	1.5 for · 1.75 against n 8 Last 5

Toulouse

Toulouse Goalkeeper

Toulouse — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Guillaume Restes	8	88701 min	182.3 /90	81 /90	00 /90
M. Niflore	2	55109 min	32.5 /90	32.5 /90	00 /90

Toulouse — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Guillaume Restes n 8	87.6	2.3 4/3

Toulouse Defensive

Toulouse — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
M. McKenzie	9	90810 min	121.3 /90	80.9 /90	40.4 /90	424.7 /90	131.4 /90	10.1 /90
C. Tape	9	89804 min	70.8 /90	50.6 /90	30.3 /90	323.6 /90	151.7 /90	10.1 /90
R. Messali	8	59472 min	132.5 /90	112.1 /90	20.4 /90	336.3 /90	122.3 /90	10.2 /90
R. Nicolaisen	6	89534 min	20.3 /90	71.2 /90	50.8 /90	325.4 /90	101.7 /90	10.2 /90
I. Diallo	4	52207 min	52.2 /90	00 /90	10.4 /90	114.8 /90	31.3 /90	00 /90
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Toulouse — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
C. Cásseres n 8	90	2.1 8/6	2.3 7/5	—
M. McKenzie n 8	90	1.4 7/3	1.1 8/1	—
C. Tape n 8	89.3	1.8 6/4	0.5 4/0	—
T. Jørgensen n 8	87.8	1 4/2	1 5/1	—
J. Russell-Rowe n 8	73.1	1.1 6/1	0.5 2/1	—
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Toulouse — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
C. Cásseres n 8	90	4 8/8
M. McKenzie n 8	90	1.4 6/3
C. Tape n 8	89.3	0.9 4/3
T. Jørgensen n 8	87.8	1.4 5/4
J. Russell-Rowe n 8	73.1	0.5 2/1
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Toulouse Attacking

Toulouse — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
J. Russell-Rowe	9	67604 min	20.3 /90	00 /90	152.2 /90	111.6 /90	30.4 /90	30.4 /90
C. Tengstedt	7	71496 min	50.9 /90	10.2 /90	213.8 /90	81.5 /90	30.5 /90	20.4 /90
S. Hidalgo	5	45224 min	00 /90	00 /90	62.4 /90	52 /90	31.2 /90	31.2 /90
S. Oppong	5	31154 min	10.6 /90	00 /90	21.2 /90	10.6 /90	00 /90	63.5 /90
C. Cásseres	9	90810 min	00 /90	50.6 /90	91 /90	20.2 /90	283.1 /90	121.3 /90
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Toulouse — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
C. Cásseres n 8	90	1 3/2	0.3 2/0
M. McKenzie n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Tape n 8	89.3	0.5 3/1	0.3 2/0
T. Jørgensen n 8	87.8	1.7 7/3	1 4/3
J. Russell-Rowe n 8	73.1	2.3 7/4	1.7 5/3
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Toulouse — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Toulouse before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
C. Cásseres n 8	90	0 0/0	0.6 4/1
M. McKenzie n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
C. Tape n 8	89.3	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
T. Jørgensen n 8	87.8	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
J. Russell-Rowe n 8	73.1	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
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Strasbourg

Strasbourg Goalkeeper

Strasbourg — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
F. Jörgensen	9	90810 min	323.6 /90	121.3 /90	00 /90

Strasbourg — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Strasbourg before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
F. Jörgensen n 8	90	3.5 7/5

Strasbourg Defensive

Strasbourg — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
G. Antwi	8	89709 min	162 /90	81 /90	30.4 /90	293.7 /90	60.8 /90	00 /90
J. Mitchell	8	80640 min	162.3 /90	142 /90	60.8 /90	334.6 /90	60.8 /90	10.1 /90
Oso	7	90630 min	111.6 /90	91.3 /90	10.1 /90	334.7 /90	40.6 /90	10.1 /90
Abdoul Karim Coulibaly	6	66395 min	00 /90	20.5 /90	20.5 /90	122.7 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90
I. Doukouré	4	79316 min	41.1 /90	30.9 /90	51.4 /90	164.6 /90	30.9 /90	00 /90
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Strasbourg — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Strasbourg before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
F. Jörgensen n 8	90	0 0/0	0.3 2/0	—
Gessime Yassine n 8	84.6	1.6 7/4	3.1 7/7	—
G. Reyna n 8	69.3	0.6 4/0	0.8 4/1	—
G. Antwi n 8	88.6	0.8 4/2	0.1 1/0	—
J. Mitchell n 8	80	0.8 4/1	0.1 1/0	—
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Strasbourg — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Strasbourg before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Gessime Yassine n 8	84.6	2.9 8/7
G. Reyna n 8	69.3	1 4/2
G. Antwi n 8	88.6	2 7/6
J. Mitchell n 8	80	2.3 6/6
P. Diop n 8	71.1	3.5 7/7
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Strasbourg Attacking

Strasbourg — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Gessime Yassine	9	85767 min	40.5 /90	30.4 /90	151.8 /90	91.1 /90	101.2 /90	263.1 /90
C. Harder	7	52366 min	20.5 /90	10.2 /90	102.5 /90	61.5 /90	71.7 /90	10.2 /90
J. Ortega	7	50349 min	10.3 /90	10.3 /90	61.5 /90	51.3 /90	51.3 /90	10.3 /90
S. Amo-Ameyaw	5	44222 min	20.8 /90	00 /90	72.8 /90	41.6 /90	20.8 /90	72.8 /90
S. Mara	2	4284 min	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	00 /90	11.1 /90
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Strasbourg — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Strasbourg before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
F. Jörgensen n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Gessime Yassine n 8	84.6	1.7 5/5	1.1 5/2
G. Reyna n 8	69.3	1.5 5/3	0.8 4/1
G. Antwi n 8	88.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Mitchell n 8	80	0.7 4/1	0.1 1/0
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Strasbourg — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Strasbourg before kick-off, to 1 November 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
F. Jörgensen n 8	90	0 0/0	0 0/0
Gessime Yassine n 8	84.6	0.5 2/2	0.4 3/0
G. Reyna n 8	69.3	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
G. Antwi n 8	88.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
J. Mitchell n 8	80	0 0/0	0 0/0
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Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Toulouse v Strasbourg — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

ToulouseWDWDL

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · 1.6 scored / 1.2 conceded per game

StrasbourgLLLLW

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · 1.6 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 6

Toulouse 2 · 1 draw · Strasbourg 3 · 2 goals/game

2026-05-03 Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse
2025-12-06 Toulouse 1–0 Strasbourg
2025-03-16 Strasbourg 2–1 Toulouse
2025-01-12 Toulouse 1–2 Strasbourg
2024-04-07 Toulouse 0–0 Strasbourg
2023-08-27 Strasbourg 2–0 Toulouse

League standing · 2026/27

Toulouse#12 pos10 pts9 pl-1 GD

Strasbourg#13 pos10 pts9 pl-2 GD

Goals per game

Toulouse scored1.33

Strasbourg scored1.89

Toulouse conceded1.44

Strasbourg conceded2.11

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who is predicted to win Toulouse v Strasbourg?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Toulouse v Strasbourg is Home or Draw (best price 1.36 at Betano).
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Strasbourg?: In their last 6 meetings, Toulouse won 2, Strasbourg won 3 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Toulouse and Strasbourg?: Recent form — Toulouse 2W 2D 1L; Strasbourg 1W 0D 4L.

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 5 Nov 2026, 21:48 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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