FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes result

Full-time · FC Cincinnati 4–2 San Jose Earthquakes

Major League Soccer · Sun, 02 Aug 2026 00:30 BST · TQL Stadium

Updated 11 Oct 2026, 16:53 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: FC Cincinnati · San Jose Earthquakes

The model’s pre-match pick

FC Cincinnati 4–2 San Jose Earthquakes — FC Cincinnati won this Major League Soccer match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Away.

Free pick

Home or Away

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Away in the last 90 days, 77.7% of 5090 landed (95% range 76.5–78.8%); it had given them 74.3% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or away, not the draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,866 of 2,505 times (74.5%), against an average rating of 73.3%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

The result

FC Cincinnati beat San Jose Earthquakes 4–2 at TQL Stadium in Major League Soccer on Sunday 2 August. FC Cincinnati have scored in at least 15 consecutive matches in all competitions.

The goals

It was 1–1 at half-time. The goals — San Jose Earthquakes: D. Munie (26’, assisted by T. Werner) and T. Werner (57’, assisted by P. Judd); FC Cincinnati: Bryan Ramirez (34’, assisted by Evander), Tom Barlow (79’, assisted by Evander), Evander (82’, assisted by O. Nwobodo) and Ayoub Jabbari (90’, assisted by Tom Barlow).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s six key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Evander’s goal on 82 minutes.

What it changes

FC Cincinnati have scored 67 goals, the fourth-most of the 30 clubs (2026 so far, after 33 games, ranked per game). FC Cincinnati have conceded 73 goals, the third-most of the 30 clubs.

San Jose Earthquakes have scored 56 goals, the 13th-most of the 30 clubs (2026 so far, after 33 games, ranked per game). San Jose Earthquakes have conceded 48 goals, the ninth-fewest (shared) of the 30 clubs.

With six goals it was the highest-scoring match of round 18, across 15 matches. San Jose Earthquakes are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, FC Cincinnati or San Jose Earthquakes (no draw), a Bronze-tier call, landed — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 77.7% of the time in the last 90 days (3953 of 5090).

Next up

FC Cincinnati next host Nashville SC on 7 November 2026.

San Jose Earthquakes next travel to Minnesota United FC on 8 November 2026.

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

Next for FC Cincinnati: FC Cincinnati v Nashville SC, Saturday 7 November — the preview. Next for San Jose Earthquakes: Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes, Sunday 8 November — the preview.

The Numbers

Result: FC Cincinnati 4–2 San Jose Earthquakes · Major League Soccer
Venue: TQL Stadium · Cincinnati
Referee: V. Rivas
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 3): FC Cincinnati 2 · draws 0 · San Jose Earthquakes 1 · 4.33 goals/game
Recent form: FC Cincinnati 2W 1D 2L · San Jose Earthquakes 1W 1D 3L

FC Cincinnati 4–2 San Jose Earthquakes (Major League Soccer): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 11 October 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

3 / 1.25

Goals

against 2.38 / 2 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.75

over 8 matches

3 / 6.29

Corners

against 6.88 / 5.29 · 1 of the last 5 over 9.5

over 7 matches

5.63 / 5

Shots on target

against 6.38 / 6 · 5 of the last 5 over 8.5

over 7 matches

2.38 / 3.14

Cards

against 2.13 / 1.71 · 4 of the last 5 over 3.5

over 7 matches

4.8 yellows

Referee · V. Rivas

22.27 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 15 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 26 July 2026. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 26 July 2026. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Lines marked “our book” are this fixture’s; the rest are standard thresholds, not prices.
Per game	FC Cincinnati for / against	Line	San Jose Earthquakes for / against
Goals scored	3 for · 2.38 against n 8 Last 5	3.75our book	1.25 for · 2 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	3 for · 6.88 against n 8 Last 5	9.5standard	6.29 for · 5.29 against n 7 Last 5
Shots	12.5 for · 18.5 against n 8 Last 5	19.5standard	11.71 for · 15 against n 7 Last 5
Shots on target	5.63 for · 6.38 against n 8 Last 5	8.5standard	5 for · 6 against n 7 Last 5
Fouls committed	11.75 for · 11.75 against n 8 Last 5	21.5standard	12.71 for · 13.86 against n 7 Last 5
Cards shown	2.38 for · 2.13 against n 8 Last 5	3.5standard	3.14 for · 1.71 against n 7 Last 5

Referee: V. Rivas — 4.8 yellow cards a game, 0.27 red cards, 22.27 fouls over 15 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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FC Cincinnati

FC Cincinnati Goalkeeper

FC Cincinnati — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Roman Celentano	18	921653 min	623.4 /90	402.2 /90	10.1 /90
Evan Louro	3	94283 min	61.9 /90	72.2 /90	00 /90

FC Cincinnati — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Cincinnati before kick-off, to 26 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Roman Celentano n 8	91.1	4.1 7/5
Evan Louro n 8	91.6	3.1 7/6

FC Cincinnati Defensive

FC Cincinnati — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
M. Robinson	14	721001 min	161.4 /90	90.8 /90	121.1 /90	565 /90	111 /90	10.1 /90
Kyle Smith	14	64895 min	161.6 /90	80.8 /90	30.3 /90	292.9 /90	80.8 /90	10.1 /90
Nick Hagglund	13	69903 min	101 /90	50.5 /90	90.9 /90	474.7 /90	111.1 /90	10.1 /90
Matt Miazga	12	66795 min	40.5 /90	60.7 /90	91 /90	222.5 /90	101.1 /90	50.6 /90
Gilberto Flores	9	71641 min	172.4 /90	101.4 /90	60.8 /90	415.8 /90	131.8 /90	20.3 /90
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FC Cincinnati — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Cincinnati before kick-off, to 26 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Pavel Bucha n 8	87.1	1.2 5/3	0.8 5/1	—
Kévin Denkey n 8	84.1	1.9 6/5	2.1 6/6	—
Bryan Ramirez n 8	64	1.1 3/2	0.7 3/1	—
Roman Celentano n 8	91.1	0 0/0	0 0/0	—
Evander n 8	91.1	1.2 6/3	1.9 6/6	—
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FC Cincinnati — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Cincinnati before kick-off, to 26 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Pavel Bucha n 8	87.1	2.2 6/5
Kévin Denkey n 8	84.1	0.7 4/1
Bryan Ramirez n 8	64	4.2 7/5
Evander n 8	91.1	1.5 8/3
Samuel Gidi n 8	83.9	1.3 5/2
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FC Cincinnati Attacking

FC Cincinnati — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Kévin Denkey	19	841604 min	150.8 /90	40.2 /90	352 /90	231.3 /90	211.2 /90	140.8 /90
Evander	18	831488 min	100.6 /90	90.5 /90	482.9 /90	301.8 /90	513.1 /90	342.1 /90
Tom Barlow	18	50897 min	80.8 /90	00 /90	191.9 /90	151.5 /90	60.6 /90	30.3 /90
Kenji Mboma Dem	14	64901 min	50.5 /90	20.2 /90	181.8 /90	80.8 /90	90.9 /90	111.1 /90
Ayoub Jabbari	10	40401 min	30.7 /90	10.2 /90	92 /90	51.1 /90	40.9 /90	40.9 /90
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FC Cincinnati — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Cincinnati before kick-off, to 26 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Pavel Bucha n 8	87.1	0.5 2/2	0.4 2/1
Kévin Denkey n 8	84.1	2.3 8/5	1.7 8/4
Bryan Ramirez n 8	64	0.9 4/1	0 0/0
Roman Celentano n 8	91.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
Evander n 8	91.1	3 8/8	2.1 8/6
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FC Cincinnati — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Cincinnati before kick-off, to 26 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Pavel Bucha n 8	87.1	0.4 2/1	0.4 3/0
Kévin Denkey n 8	84.1	0.9 6/1	0.1 1/0
Bryan Ramirez n 8	64	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
Roman Celentano n 8	91.1	0 0/0	0 0/0
Evander n 8	91.1	1 5/2	0.9 4/2
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San Jose Earthquakes

San Jose Earthquakes Goalkeeper

San Jose Earthquakes — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Daniel	15	901356 min	453 /90	151 /90	00 /90
A. Gunn	2	90180 min	52.5 /90	52.5 /90	00 /90

San Jose Earthquakes — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for San Jose Earthquakes before kick-off, to 26 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Daniel n 8	89.1	3.4 5/5

San Jose Earthquakes Defensive

San Jose Earthquakes — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
D. Munie	16	921470 min	130.8 /90	150.9 /90	70.4 /90	382.3 /90	80.5 /90	30.2 /90
R. Roberts	16	911461 min	271.7 /90	161 /90	120.7 /90	573.5 /90	120.7 /90	40.2 /90
J. Ricketts	15	691041 min	161.4 /90	111 /90	40.3 /90	655.6 /90	171.5 /90	20.2 /90
Benjamin Kikanović	14	861206 min	221.6 /90	131 /90	100.7 /90	685.1 /90	161.2 /90	50.4 /90
D. Romney	8	55442 min	61.2 /90	30.6 /90	30.6 /90	183.7 /90	30.6 /90	00 /90
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San Jose Earthquakes — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for San Jose Earthquakes before kick-off, to 26 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
O. Bouda n 8	76.6	1 5/2	2.2 7/5	—
D. Munie n 8	92.1	0.5 2/2	0.5 4/0	—
R. Roberts n 8	91	1 4/3	0.9 4/3	—
P. Judd n 8	79	2.1 6/4	1.4 6/3	—
Beau Leroux n 8	81.5	1.2 5/3	2.2 5/5	—
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San Jose Earthquakes — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for San Jose Earthquakes before kick-off, to 26 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
O. Bouda n 8	76.6	2.1 6/4
D. Munie n 8	92.1	1 4/2
R. Roberts n 8	91	1.6 6/5
P. Judd n 8	79	0 0/0
Beau Leroux n 8	81.5	3 7/5
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San Jose Earthquakes Attacking

San Jose Earthquakes — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
P. Judd	16	811298 min	110.8 /90	20.1 /90	433 /90	261.8 /90	50.3 /90	50.3 /90
D. Johnson	3	2368 min	00 /90	00 /90	11.3 /90	11.3 /90	11.3 /90	11.3 /90
O. Bouda	17	811385 min	50.3 /90	10.1 /90	241.6 /90	130.8 /90	181.2 /90	130.8 /90
Beau Leroux	16	791268 min	20.1 /90	30.2 /90	211.5 /90	90.6 /90	201.4 /90	221.6 /90
R. Vieira	14	831158 min	00 /90	00 /90	100.8 /90	40.3 /90	80.6 /90	80.6 /90
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San Jose Earthquakes — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for San Jose Earthquakes before kick-off, to 26 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
O. Bouda n 8	76.6	1.3 4/2	0.4 2/1
D. Munie n 8	92.1	0.4 3/0	0.2 2/0
R. Roberts n 8	91	0.4 2/1	0.4 2/1
P. Judd n 8	79	3.1 7/6	2 7/5
Beau Leroux n 8	81.5	1.9 6/4	1 4/2
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San Jose Earthquakes — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for San Jose Earthquakes before kick-off, to 26 July 2026. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
O. Bouda n 8	76.6	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
D. Munie n 8	92.1	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
R. Roberts n 8	91	0.2 2/0	0 0/0
P. Judd n 8	79	1.1 6/2	0 0/0
Beau Leroux n 8	81.5	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

FC CincinnatiLDWWL

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · 3.4 scored / 3 conceded per game

San Jose EarthquakesLLWLD

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · 1.2 scored / 2.2 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 3

FC Cincinnati 2 · 0 draws · San Jose Earthquakes 1 · 4.33 goals/game

2024-06-16 San Jose Earthquakes 2–4 FC Cincinnati
2022-09-10 FC Cincinnati 6–0 San Jose Earthquakes
2019-05-05 San Jose Earthquakes 1–0 FC Cincinnati

League standing · 2026

FC Cincinnati#7 pos46 pts33 pl-6 GD

San Jose Earthquakes#3 pos52 pts33 pl+8 GD

Goals per game

FC Cincinnati scored2.03

San Jose Earthquakes scored1.7

FC Cincinnati conceded2.21

San Jose Earthquakes conceded1.45

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes?: TACTIX’s free model pick for FC Cincinnati v San Jose Earthquakes was Home or Away.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Cincinnati and San Jose Earthquakes?: In their last 3 meetings, FC Cincinnati won 2, San Jose Earthquakes won 1 and there were 0 draws, averaging 4.33 goals per game.
What is the recent form of FC Cincinnati and San Jose Earthquakes?: Recent form — FC Cincinnati 2W 1D 2L; San Jose Earthquakes 1W 1D 3L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 11 Oct 2026, 16:53 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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