Portland Timbers v FC Cincinnati result

Full-time · Portland Timbers 2–3 FC Cincinnati

Major League Soccer · Sun, 17 Aug 2025 03:30 BST

Updated 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK · refreshed continuously

Team pages: Portland Timbers · FC Cincinnati

The model’s pre-match pick

Portland Timbers 2–3 FC Cincinnati — FC Cincinnati won this Major League Soccer match. TACTIX’s pre-match model pick was Home or Draw.

Free pick

Home or Draw

This is one free selection. The model’s confidence rating, value against the bookmakers and every other market are part of Pro.

The record in this market: of the calls the model rated 70% or more on Home or Draw in the last 90 days, 76.7% of 1766 landed (95% range 74.7–78.6%); it had given them 75.2% on average. That is the market’s record, not a forecast for this pick. How accurate →

How often calls like this land: when the model rated home or draw (double chance) between 62% and 80% in 21 top-flight leagues over the last 365 days — every such forecast, not only the free picks — it landed 1,113 of 1,477 times (75.4%), against an average rating of 70.4%. How we measure →

Match report, in numbers

The result

FC Cincinnati won 3–2 at Portland Timbers in Major League Soccer on Sunday 17 August. Expected goals (xG) tell a different story: Portland Timbers out-shot FC Cincinnati 24 to 10 and created the better chances, 2.54 xG to 1.33 (the provider’s expected goals for this match). Variance.

The goals

FC Cincinnati led 3–1 at half-time. The goals — FC Cincinnati: Kévin Denkey (10’, assisted by Pavel Bucha), Pavel Bucha (25’, assisted by Evander) and Evander (36’, assisted by Matt Miazga); Portland Timbers: K. Kelsy (38’, assisted by A. Lassiter; 68’ pen).

How it turned

Replaying TACTIX’s published pre-match model through the match’s five key moments (goals and red cards), the biggest swing came with Kévin Denkey’s goal on 10 minutes.

Discipline

Rubiel Vazquez, USA showed three yellow cards — against 3.5 yellows a game across the last 16 matches refereed (this competition). The bookings — Portland Timbers: K. Kelsy (13’) and C. Paredes (59’); FC Cincinnati: M. Robinson (45+3’).

What it changes

Portland Timbers have scored 35 goals, the seventh-fewest of the 15 clubs (2025 so far, after 27 games, ranked per game). Portland Timbers have conceded 37 goals, the seventh-fewest of the 15 clubs.

FC Cincinnati have scored 42 goals, the eighth-most (shared) of the 15 clubs (2025 so far, after 28 games, ranked per game). FC Cincinnati have conceded 35 goals, the fourth-fewest of the 15 clubs.

Portland Timbers are winless in their last three matches in all competitions.

Who stood out

By TACTIX Impact for this match, K. Kelsy (Portland Timbers) 9.5, J. Fory (Portland Timbers) 8.6 and Pavel Bucha (FC Cincinnati) 8.1 led the match.

Head-to-head

FC Cincinnati are unbeaten in the last three meetings with Portland Timbers, every meeting checked.

What the model said

The model’s free pick, Portland Timbers or the draw, a Bronze-tier call, did not land — graded in the live track record, misses included. Bronze-tier calls in this market have landed 76.7% of the time in the last 90 days (1355 of 1766).

Written from the matches TACTIX holds for both sides; each figure names the games it is counted over.

The Numbers

Result: Portland Timbers 2–3 FC Cincinnati · Major League Soccer
Referee: Rubiel Vazquez, USA
Model coverage: 246 markets priced for this fixture
Head-to-head (last 3): Portland Timbers 0 · draws 1 · FC Cincinnati 2 · 2.67 goals/game
Recent form: Portland Timbers 3W 1D 1L · FC Cincinnati 1W 2D 2L

Portland Timbers 2–3 FC Cincinnati (Major League Soccer): this fixture is settled. TACTIX’s pre-match coverage ran across 246 markets, and every graded call — wins and losses — is in the live track record (as of 30 July 2026). See the live track record →

Key Stats

1.13 / 1.5

Goals

against 0.88 / 1.38 · 1 of the last 5 over 2.5

over 8 matches

6 / 4

Corners

against 3.33 / 3.33 · 1 of the last 3 over 9.5

over 6 matches

3 / 4.67

Shots on target

against 4 / 4 · 0 of the last 3 over 8.5

over 6 matches

1.67 / 2.5

Cards

against 2.5 / 2.17 · 1 of the last 3 over 3.5

over 6 matches

3.5 yellows

Referee · Rubiel Vazquez, USA

23 fouls a game

Home and away split · Pro

over 16 matches

246

Markets analysed

Per game, last 8 completed matches, to 10 August 2025. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.

Per game, last 8 played matches, friendlies left out, to 10 August 2025. Goals in a match that went to extra time count at the 90-minute score; its other figures are left out. Bars: for (mint) against (amber), scaled to the larger figure in the row. Over/under figures use standard thresholds, not bookmaker lines.
Per game	Portland Timbers for / against	Line	FC Cincinnati for / against
Goals scored	1.13 for · 0.88 against n 8 Last 5	2.5standard	1.5 for · 1.38 against n 8 Last 5
Corners won	6 for · 3.33 against n 6 Last 5	9.5standard	4 for · 3.33 against n 6 Last 5
Shots	10.17 for · 12 against n 6 Last 5	19.5standard	13 for · 11.17 against n 6 Last 5
Shots on target	3 for · 4 against n 6 Last 5	8.5standard	4.67 for · 4 against n 6 Last 5
Fouls committed	10.5 for · 10.83 against n 6 Last 5	21.5standard	8.83 for · 13.67 against n 6 Last 5
Cards shown	1.67 for · 2.5 against n 6 Last 5	3.5standard	2.5 for · 2.17 against n 6 Last 5

Referee: Rubiel Vazquez, USA — 3.5 yellow cards a game, 0.25 red cards, 23 fouls over 16 matches.

The referee's home and away split · Pro

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Portland Timbers

Portland Timbers Goalkeeper

Portland Timbers — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
J. Pantemis	13	901170 min	503.8 /90	161.2 /90	30.2 /90
Maxime Crépeau	13	901170 min	463.5 /90	181.4 /90	00 /90

Portland Timbers — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portland Timbers before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
J. Pantemis n 8	90	4.1 6/6
Maxime Crépeau n 8	90	3.2 7/7

Portland Timbers Defensive

Portland Timbers — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
F. Surman	23	872001 min	271.2 /90	200.9 /90	180.8 /90	884 /90	110.5 /90	10 /90
J. Mosquera	21	831749 min	251.3 /90	70.4 /90	10.1 /90	663.4 /90	70.4 /90	10.1 /90
J. Fory	21	791661 min	321.7 /90	221.2 /90	80.4 /90	1065.7 /90	362 /90	80.4 /90
K. Miller	18	851528 min	80.5 /90	221.3 /90	100.6 /90	492.9 /90	191.1 /90	50.3 /90
D. Župarić	12	851020 min	181.6 /90	262.3 /90	60.5 /90	544.8 /90	121.1 /90	20.2 /90
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Portland Timbers — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portland Timbers before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
D. Ayala n 8	77.6	1.6 6/3	1 5/1	L. Engel
K. Kelsy n 8	55.3	0.8 4/0	1.8 5/2	Evander
F. Surman n 8	84.4	0.7 4/1	0.3 2/0	—
David Pereira da Costa n 8	88.3	0.3 2/0	0.4 2/1	D. Yedlin
F. Mora n 8	62.8	0.5 3/0	1.6 6/2	—
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Portland Timbers — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portland Timbers before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
D. Ayala n 8	77.6	2.9 7/5
K. Kelsy n 8	55.3	0.6 3/0
F. Surman n 8	84.4	1.7 7/5
David Pereira da Costa n 8	88.3	0.3 2/0
F. Mora n 8	62.8	0.5 2/1
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Portland Timbers Attacking

Portland Timbers — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
K. Kelsy	24	481143 min	50.4 /90	00 /90	161.3 /90	90.7 /90	70.6 /90	70.6 /90
F. Mora	23	591366 min	50.3 /90	30.2 /90	171.1 /90	130.9 /90	110.7 /90	90.6 /90
O. Fernandez	10	42417 min	00 /90	00 /90	10.2 /90	10.2 /90	20.4 /90	51.1 /90
A. Lassiter	8	49392 min	00 /90	00 /90	20.5 /90	00 /90	51.1 /90	30.7 /90
Jonathan Rodríguez	5	27137 min	10.7 /90	10.7 /90	63.9 /90	32 /90	21.3 /90	00 /90
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Portland Timbers — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portland Timbers before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
D. Ayala n 8	77.6	0.6 3/1	0.3 2/0
K. Kelsy n 8	55.3	0.6 2/1	0.2 1/0
F. Surman n 8	84.4	0.4 2/1	0 0/0
David Pereira da Costa n 8	88.3	1.4 6/3	1.3 6/2
F. Mora n 8	62.8	0.7 3/1	0.4 2/0
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Portland Timbers — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for Portland Timbers before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
D. Ayala n 8	77.6	0 0/0	0 0/0
K. Kelsy n 8	55.3	0 0/0	0 0/0
F. Surman n 8	84.4	0 0/0	0 0/0
David Pereira da Costa n 8	88.3	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
F. Mora n 8	62.8	0 0/0	0.2 1/0
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FC Cincinnati

FC Cincinnati Goalkeeper

FC Cincinnati — Goalkeeper: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Saves	Goals conceded	Penalties saved
Roman Celentano	29	902617 min	883 /90	371.3 /90	10 /90
Evan Louro	2	90180 min	63 /90	31.5 /90	00 /90

FC Cincinnati — Goalkeeper saves: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Cincinnati before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 2+, lower cell 3+.
Player	Mins	Saves 2+3+
Roman Celentano n 8	90.9	3 7/4
Evan Louro n 3	90	3 3/3

FC Cincinnati Defensive

FC Cincinnati — Defensive: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Tackles	Interceptions	Blocks	Duels won	Fouls committed	Yellow cards
L. Engel	29	822378 min	501.9 /90	361.4 /90	90.3 /90	1294.9 /90	220.8 /90	50.2 /90
M. Robinson	24	852045 min	261.1 /90	261.1 /90	160.7 /90	914 /90	160.7 /90	20.1 /90
Gilberto Flores	19	771460 min	402.5 /90	161 /90	130.8 /90	1026.3 /90	110.7 /90	50.3 /90
T. Hadebe	18	631127 min	201.6 /90	342.7 /90	90.7 /90	564.5 /90	191.5 /90	50.4 /90
Matt Miazga	15	791184 min	161.2 /90	141.1 /90	141.1 /90	544.1 /90	110.8 /90	30.2 /90
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FC Cincinnati — Discipline: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Cincinnati before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Fouls committed 1+2+	Fouls won 1+2+	Likely duel
Pavel Bucha n 8	84.4	1.2 7/2	0.4 2/1	—
Roman Celentano n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0.1 1/0	—
L. Engel n 8	87.5	0.5 3/1	0.8 5/1	D. Ayala
Evander n 8	88.5	0.4 2/1	1.9 5/4	K. Kelsy
D. Yedlin n 8	78.8	0.7 4/1	0.7 4/1	David Pereira da Costa
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FC Cincinnati — Tackles: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Cincinnati before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Tackles 1+2+
Pavel Bucha n 8	84.4	1.2 5/3
L. Engel n 8	87.5	1.8 7/4
Evander n 8	88.5	0.9 3/2
D. Yedlin n 8	78.8	2.1 5/5
Kévin Denkey n 8	87.9	0.3 1/1
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FC Cincinnati Attacking

FC Cincinnati — Attacking: season totals in played matches, friendlies left out, appearances of 15+ minutes; per 90 minutes under each figure; total minutes under the average, before kick-off.
Player	Apps	Avg mins	Goals	Assists	Shots	Shots on target	Key passes	Dribbles completed
Evander	28	812277 min	170.7 /90	80.3 /90	712.8 /90	441.7 /90	582.3 /90	371.5 /90
Kévin Denkey	25	832065 min	140.6 /90	20.1 /90	502.2 /90	301.3 /90	221 /90	241 /90
Gerardo Valenzuela	15	53794 min	50.6 /90	00 /90	242.7 /90	161.8 /90	131.5 /90	111.2 /90
Sergio Santos	15	41615 min	10.1 /90	20.3 /90	91.3 /90	40.6 /90	131.9 /90	30.4 /90
Y. Kubo	14	58811 min	10.1 /90	00 /90	131.4 /90	80.9 /90	101.1 /90	80.9 /90
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FC Cincinnati — Shooting: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Cincinnati before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Shots 1+2+	Shots on target 1+2+
Pavel Bucha n 8	84.4	0.3 2/0	0.1 1/0
Roman Celentano n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Engel n 8	87.5	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
Evander n 8	88.5	3.2 8/8	2 8/5
D. Yedlin n 8	78.8	0.3 2/0	0 0/0
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FC Cincinnati — Goalscoring: per 90 minutes, each player’s last 8 appearances of 15+ minutes in played matches, friendlies left out for FC Cincinnati before kick-off, to 10 August 2025. Meter: one column per match, newest first; upper cell 1+, lower cell 2+.
Player	Mins	Goals 1+2+	Assists 1+2+
Pavel Bucha n 8	84.4	0.1 1/0	0 0/0
Roman Celentano n 8	90.9	0 0/0	0 0/0
L. Engel n 8	87.5	0 0/0	0.3 2/0
Evander n 8	88.5	1 5/3	0.3 2/0
D. Yedlin n 8	78.8	0 0/0	0.1 1/0
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The next free picks, by email

The pick on this page was published before kick-off and graded afterwards. The daily email carries the next ones at 07:30 UK, each with its tier’s settled record, misses included. One click to leave.

Match Statistics & Details

Full-time team statistics as recorded by the data provider; – = not recorded.
Portland Timbers		FC Cincinnati
58%	Possession	42%
2.54	Expected goals (xG)	1.33
24	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	5
8	Shots off target	4
11	Blocked shots	1
16	Shots inside the box	7
6	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
10	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Saves	3
530	Passes	403
87%	Pass accuracy	77%

Portland Timbers Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Maxime Crépeau	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
J. Mosquera	90	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	7.3
F. Surman	90	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	6.6
J. Fory	90	0	0	0	0	4	3	0	7.7
Antony	90	0	0	3	2	1	1	0	7
David Pereira da Costa	90	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	7.5
K. Kelsy	90	2	0	5	2	1	0	Y	7.9
D. Ayala	85	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	7.2
A. Lassiter	83	0	1	2	1	3	0	0	7.2
K. Miller	82	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.5
J. Ortiz	58	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.6
C. Paredes sub	33	0	0	0	0	2	0	Y	6.9
F. Mora sub	14	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.6
D. Župarić sub	9	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6.9
O. Fernandez sub	8	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6.7

FC Cincinnati Player Stats

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	SoT	KP	Tkl	Cards	Rating
Roman Celentano	90	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.7
Nick Hagglund	90	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	7.7
Matt Miazga	90	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	7.2
Pavel Bucha	90	1	1	2	2	1	1	0	7.9
L. Engel	90	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	6.6
Evander	90	1	1	1	1	3	0	0	7.9
D. Yedlin	89	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.7
Stiven Jimenez	89	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	6.6
M. Robinson	78	0	0	0	0	0	0	Y	6.7
Kévin Denkey	59	1	0	2	2	0	0	0	7.3
Ender Echenique	58	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	6.6
Kenji Mboma Dem sub	33	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6.3
K. Kamara sub	32	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	6.9
T. Hadebe sub	13	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.9
A. Powell sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	6.9
Gerardo Valenzuela sub	8	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	6.3

Sh = shots, SoT = shots on target, KP = key passes, Tkl = tackles; – = not recorded for that player. Rating is the data provider’s.

Form, Head-to-Head & Standings

The numbers behind Portland Timbers v FC Cincinnati — recent results, past meetings and where each side sits. (TACTIX’s model forecast is in the projections below.)

Recent form

Portland TimbersWWWDL

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · 1.4 scored / 0.6 conceded per game

FC CincinnatiDWDLL

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · 1.2 scored / 1.4 conceded per game

Head-to-head last 3

Portland Timbers 0 · 1 draw · FC Cincinnati 2 · 2.67 goals/game

2023-04-22 FC Cincinnati 2–1 Portland Timbers
2020-07-29 Portland Timbers 1–1 FC Cincinnati
2019-03-17 FC Cincinnati 3–0 Portland Timbers

League standing · 2025

Last recorded position — not updated during the season.

Portland Timbers#8 pos44 pts34 pl-7 GD

FC Cincinnati#2 pos65 pts34 pl+12 GD

Goals per game

Portland Timbers scored1.21

FC Cincinnati scored1.53

Portland Timbers conceded1.41

FC Cincinnati conceded1.18

The Full Post-Match Picture

Pro members see this match shot by shot — every attempt with its expected-goals value, the situation and shot-type breakdowns, the xG timeline, and how the model’s pre-match probabilities compared with what happened. Plus every market the model graded for this fixture.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What was the model’s pick for Portland Timbers v FC Cincinnati?: TACTIX’s free model pick for Portland Timbers v FC Cincinnati was Home or Draw.
What is the head-to-head record between Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati?: In their last 3 meetings, Portland Timbers won 0, FC Cincinnati won 2 and there was 1 draw, averaging 2.67 goals per game.
What is the recent form of Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati?: Recent form — Portland Timbers 3W 1D 1L; FC Cincinnati 1W 2D 2L.

Today’s Boards

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This page is generated from TACTIX’s match data by our software and checked automatically; data as of 30 Jul 2026, 10:24 UK. How it works → · Report an error

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